'Indians Might Find That They Have To Attack'

Jon Leyne: Mr. Secretary, let me ask you first of all about the situation between India and Pakistan. I want to ask youfirst of all about who's going there -- who, where, when, why.

Colin Powell: Well, we have been in touch with our friends around the world, frankly, to keep a constant diplomaticpresence in the region to talk to both sides to encourage restraint on the part of both sides and to find asolution. Chris Patten from the European Union was in a week or so ago. As you know, your Foreign SecretaryJack Straw was in a few days ago. Deputy Secretary Wolfowitz of Defense -- Wolfowitz is in Singapore withMinister of Defense of India Fernandes talking about the issues.

So next week, we will be sending in Deputy Secretary of State Armitage, who will go in and visit bothparties. And then the week after, Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, who will be traveling in the area -- he willbe going to NATO meetings and down into the Persian Gulf, so it made sense for him to continue his journeyaround to India and Pakistan because there is a unique defense dimension to this that is of interest toSecretary Rumsfeld, and that is how could a potential conflict between these two nations affect our campaignagainst terrorism in Afghanistan.

So we're going to work with friends around the world, all the leaders of the world, to do everything we canto keep this situation from turning into a conflict. And as you also know, there's another meeting where thetwo leaders are going to Almaty in Kazakhstan, and President Putin and other regional leaders will be therealso to discuss with Prime Minister Vajpayee and President Musharraf the situation.

So we're putting a 100 percent full court press on this, and of course I speak to both sides on a regularbasis. I guess I've spoken to President Musharraf, oh, five times in the last six or seven days.

Jon Leyne: Any plans to go there yourself?

Colin Powell: Not yet, but it's always a possibility. Right now I'm able to do what I think I have to do by telephone andby essentially coordinating what we are doing with my friends and colleagues, and especially with ForeignSecretary Jack Straw.

Jon Leyne: Now, a week ago you said you were watching to see whether General Musharraf had fulfilled his promise to stopinfiltration across the line of control. A week later, what do you see?

Colin Powell: A week later, I have seen indications that instructions have been given to cease this kind of activity. Ithink it is still too early to say that it has stopped. And when and if it does stop, it must also stoppermanently. It can't be something where you turn a tap on or off; we will stop it for a while and get out ofthis problem, and then we'll turn it on again. I think what we're expecting President Musharraf to do is touse all of the authority he has to stop it, and to keep it stopped, so that we can get this crisis behind us.

Now, if it becomes obvious that he has done that, and we can actually detect this, and more importantly theIndians can see that it's stopped, then we have a basis for saying to the Indian side: "Okay, look,that's been stopped. We have assurances that it will be on a permanent basis. Now we are hopeful and expectingyou to take de-escalatory steps so that you can start to bring these troops away from this very tense borderand start moving in the other direction."

And then both sides can take further steps, ultimately I hope leading to a dialogue between the two sideson the outstanding issues between them, and especially ultimately the issue of Kashmir.

Jon Leyne: Well, what about the issue of dialogue? It's all very well to pull the troops back if you succeed in gettingthat. Are you pressing the Indians to enter into a dialogue if things calm down?

Colin Powell: I have told both sides that if things calm down, if we get back to where we were before the assault on theparliament and the attack in Srinagar, if we can get back to a more stable, less tense situation, the UnitedStates would be encouraging both sides to enter a dialogue. And to the extent that we can be helpful incausing that dialogue to take place, we are more than willing to do it. We do not wish to come in as amediator, but I think our offices -- because we have such solid relations with both countries, our goodsoffices could be useful.

Jon Leyne: How long does General Musharraf have to deliver?

Colin Powell: Well, I can't answer that question. I mean, what we are concerned about is that the Indians might find thatthey have to attack. I don't know what their timeline is. There are weather considerations. There are lots ofother considerations.

What I am impressed with right now, however, is that both sides -- both sides -- seem to be looking for apolitical solution. Both sides realize that little can be gained from a war. But, you know, wars start anywaywhen people realize little can be gained from such wars. But little can be gained from this war. If theIndians attacked, it's unlikely that they would be able to take care of the problem that they are attackingagainst on a permanent basis. It would of course draw a response from Pakistan. That is very destabilizing forthe whole region. It would affect US interests in that region and our war against terrorism, against al-Qaidaand the Taliban.

But more significantly, both sides are nuclear-armed. Now, I think both sides recognize that the mosthorrific thing that could happen in the year 2002 is, for the second time in history, a nuclear exchange totake place. The whole world would condemn whoever does that, and I think that is a sobering reality that bothunderstand. Nevertheless, they are nuclear-armed, and we don't want to go down this road to test anypropositions as to whether they will or they won't.

But I have communicated to both that I have a little experience in the employment of nuclear weapons. Itwas my job for many years as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, as a corps commander, as a battalioncommander. We don't want to go down this road. It is not just another weapon in a toolbox of weapons. Itcrosses a line that the world does not want to see crossed in 2002. And the condemnation that would go againstwhichever country did it would be worldwide and it would be immediate, and we really don't want to see thiskind of action.

Jon Leyne: Intelligence reports circulating in Washington say between 50 and 60 training camps reopened in the last fewmonths. Were eyes taken off the ball here?

Colin Powell: No, I'm not familiar with that particular intelligence report. We have been following this and monitoringthis on a constant basis, so I don't think any eyes have been taken off any ball. I've stayed in close contactwith the situation.

We were disappointed in the spring that some initial steps that we thought were being taken to shut downactivity across the line of control did not continue, and we did not see the kind of cessation that we wereexpecting based on what President Musharraf said in his January 12th speech. And that's why we are nowpressing General Musharraf, President Musharraf, very intensely to essentially do what he said he was going todo. He spoke very candidly on January 12th. He once again told the world that he was a member of this campaignagainst terrorism and he was going to shut down this terrorist activity. He also said that there are certainrights that the Kashmiri people are anxious to enjoy. And so he has not lost his commitment to that cause, buthe was going to shut down terrorism, and that is going across the line of control to conduct attacks that killinnocent people.

And so we expect him to make good his word, and the assurances he has given me in the many conversations wehave had in recent weeks lead me to believe that he is going to do that. But I can't go anywhere with thatassurance. The only time I can go somewhere and make a case with the Indian side or to the world is when wesee the action taking place, that it has been stopped.

Jon Leyne: Last question on this topic. What is the state of plans to pull out US citizens in India and Pakistan?

Colin Powell: We will be making an announcement this morning that we are moving to what we call authorized departure. Thatmeans that those nonessential personnel and their family members who believe that they should leave, or wouldprefer to leave, will be authorized to leave, and we will take care of them in their departure. There are tensof thousands of American citizens in both countries, and they will make their own decisions. We are alsoreinforcing our Travel Advisory, warning people that this is probably not the best place to visit and travelto at the moment.