At the time Koirala went to Colombo to attend the summit, an agreement on theformation of a new government continued to elude the major political formationsin the newly-elected Constituent Assembly. In fact, the decision taken byKoirala without allegedly consulting the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) andthe Communist party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist) to represent Nepal at thesummit had become a matter of major controversy. The Maoists, who constitute thelargest single grouping in the Constituent Assembly, and the CPN-UML felt thatNepal should have been represented by the newly-elected President Ram BaranYadav and not by the caretaker Prime Minister, whose days in office werenumbered. Ultimately, the Maoists and the CPN-UML had agreed to Koiralaattending the summit after he reportedly apologised for not consulting them inthe matter in advance. This controversy brought into focus once again thesuspicion and distrust, which continued to mark the relations among the majorpolitical formations after the elections to the Constituent Assembly, with theMaoists smelling an Indian-inspired conspiracy to deny them the fruits ofoffice.
However, after the return of Koirala to Kathmandu from Colombo, the mainpolitical parties agreed on August 5, 2008, to form a national unity governmentled by the Maoists, who will be joined by the Nepali Congress, the CPN-UML andthe Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) that represents the people of the Terairegion bordering India. The Maoists reached an agreement with the leaders of theother three parties to head the coalition after what was described as"breakthrough" talks by Jhala Nath Khanal, the General Secretary of theCPN-UML. According to Khanal, the leaders of the four parties agreed that thecoalition will remain in office at least until the Assembly approved a newconstitution, a process that may take two years to complete.
The talks on government formation had gone through so many ups and downs duringthe last four months that any optimistic conclusion that the suspicions anddistrust, which had dogged the talks till August 5, would now be a matter of thepast could be misplaced. Before the controversy relating to Koirala’sparticipation in the SAARC summit, there was another controversy caused by theelection on July 24,2008, of Ram Baran Yadav, an ethnic Madhesi, as Nepal’sfirst President defeating a Maoist candidate. Following this, the Maoists hadwithdrawn from the talks on government formation in a huff. It took some timeand efforts to cajole them back into the talks. The interim government, whichpaved the way for the elections to the Constituent Assembly and the declarationof Nepal with a population of 26.4 million as a Republic on May 28,2008, afterending 240 years of the monarchy, had earlier this year agreed to give theMadhesis greater representation in state and local administration in order toend 16 days of strikes and protests that paralyzed Terai and led to fuel andfood shortages in Kathmandu. The Terai region is Nepal’s agriculturalheartland and, according to the Madhesi leaders, it accounts for 48 per cent ofthe country’s population and 80 per cent of its commercial and industrialactivities. It is the main transport link to India, Nepal’s biggest tradingpartner.
If the latest agreement does not break down, Puspa Kamal Dahal, the Maoistleader known as Prachanda, is expected to lead the national unity government asPrime Minister for the next two years. The CPN (Maoist) holds 220 seats in the601- member Constituent Assembly, double the number of its nearest rival, theNepali Congress. With less than forty per cent of the seats, its role inpolicy-making--whether in relation to the new Constitution or in relation toNepal’s domestic and external issues--should normally be limited. But what itlacks in terms of seats in the Constituent Assembly will be sought to be madegood by it through its well-motivated and well-trained cadres, who would try toenable the party to have its way in matters relating to its agenda throughmuscle and street power when the voting power is found inadequate.
In the list of the irreducible minimum of its agenda is the integration ofsuitable members of its trained army into the Nepal Army, thereby giving Nepalfor the first time an ideologically indoctrinated army. A People’s LiberationArmy (PLA) of Nepal will be the dream of Prachanda. Will the other threepolitical formations be able to resist the Maoists’ plans to reorganise theArmy and make it the tool of the ultimate capture of total state power by theMaoists? That is the first question, which ought to be worrying Indianpolicy-makers.
In the new government, which would guide the initial steps in Constitution andpolicy-making, the Maoists will be in the driving seat of power, but not yet intotal control of it, but total control will be their ultimate aim. The Maoistshave reached where they are now through a mix of the Chinese and Soviet tactics.Through Chinese-style armed peasant power, they established control over largeparts of the rural areas, but when control of Kathmandu and theIndian-influenced Terai region eluded them, they joined the other politicalformations in a democratic street agitation, which gave them their present shareof power. In Russia, the Bolsheviks led by Lenin rode to power piggy-back on theMensheviks. After having got a share of the power and the exit of the Tsar, theykicked the Mensheviks out and established a dictatorship of the proletariat,which was to last for nearly 74 years. Is a similar scenario possible in Nepal?That is the second question which should preoccupy our policy-makers. Would sucha scenario be in India’s interest? If not, should India actively, butdiscreetly work to prevent it? Who could be its objective allies if it decidesor is forced to do so?