Countdown To... What?

• It has become a referendum on Musharraf
  
• Neither Benazir nor Sharif is sniping at each other. Their attack is directed against Musharraf and the army generals.
  
• Sharifspeak: Reinstate the deposed judges
  
• Benazirspeak: Pakistan's resources should be in the hands of people, not the generals
  
• The concern: Election 2008 will be rigged to help parties supporting Musharraf
  
• The theme: Restore the constitutional basis of democracy

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Urban Punjab is palpably in the thrall of Sharif even though he and his brother, Shahbaz, have been disqualified from the fighting the election. He works the crowd through his promises of reinstating the Supreme Court judges whom Musharraf sacked summarily. Sharif does know his people well—for it was urban Punjab that gave a rousing reception to 'deposed' chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry when he had come calling months ago after he was suspended. Sample this excerpt from his speech, "It is a misfortune that 16 generals are ruling the country instead of 160 million people. I urge the nation to be courageous and throw out the group of generals from politics. We will reinstate all judges after coming into power and launch legal action against rulers for abrogating the Constitution, deposing the judges and distorting the national image. It would not be less than a revolution."

By contrast, Benazir hasn't been harping on the judiciary issue. (It is said she fears an independent judiciary, believing it could squash the national reconciliation order that granted her amnesty in corruption cases). But even her campaign is directed against the army, and the need for people to control the country's resources. At a massive rally in Hyderabad, she declared, "People, and not the generals, are the real masters of Pakistan. To try and control its resources is the right of the people. They should be the masters of their destiny and the country. The ppp and PML(N) will win the upcoming polls." Adding to the woes of Musharraf and the PML(Q), she has been drawing huge crowds countrywide.

Therein lies the catch. The huge response to Benazir and Sharif could bolster the resolve of the establishment to rig the election. As Imtiaz Alam, editor, South Asian Journal, told Outlook, "The regime is faced with the dilemma of whether or not to continue rigging the elections. This is because the King's parties (the PML(Q) and its allies) will be routed in a fair election. If these elections are rigged, it will ignite such protests or rebellion that our history has not witnessed before." The New York-based Human Rights Watch feels it is impossible to conduct a free and fair poll in the prevailing situation in Pakistan. As it recently said, "The dismantling of an independent judiciary and the crackdown on the vocal lawyers' movement mean free and fair elections, scheduled for January 8, will be impossible."

Meanwhile, the civil society hasn't relented, their daily protests demanding the reinstatement of judges come as a constant reminder to the people about the theme of Election 2008. What precisely is this theme? The answer of Rasul Bakhsh Rai, professor at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, is apt: "The current social movement is more than the issue of which party comes to power. Its immediate concern right now is to restore the constitutional basis of democracy in the country."