Archipelago of Dreams

When Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee arrives in Malaysia for an official visit on February 8, he'll be seen as the leader of a newly pro-active India undertaking deft manoeuvres to counter the increasing apprehension about China's moves in Southeast Asia. The first tentative steps were taken last month during Vajpayee's trips to Vietnam and Indonesia, when defence pacts were signed and security issues discussed; his impending visits to Malaysia and Japan, too, are expected to retain the focus.

Senior diplomats perceive India's forays into the region as a reaction to China's diplomatic efforts to strengthen its soft underbelly, Pakistan. "When Chinese leader Li Peng offered friendship and cooperation during his recent visit to India, it was to size up India before it strengthens its soft underbelly, Pakistan," says retired Malaysian ambassador Jack de Silva, involved for much of his official life in strategic matters. "China's self-interest needs India to be occupied elsewhere than on the largely unmarked border in the Himalayas," says Silva.

The former diplomat compares Li Peng's India visit to his 1997 trip to Southeast Asia, when he offered eternal friendship and promised to negotiate outstanding bones of territorial contention. The Spratleys in the South China Sea was claimed by the littoral states in the area, and "it was music to the ears in the chancellories". But shortly after Li's return to Beijing, the National People's Congress passed a law claiming the South China island to be forever Chinese territory.

Indian officials do not, yet, see its move in the region in strategic and geopolitical terms. This has Malaysia's former foreign minister Tan Sri Ghazali Shafie quite incensed: "India is not interested in the region in the way countries in the region expect it to. That is why I saw the defence pacts with Indonesia and Vietnam as the most momentous geopolitical move India had made in the region since 1947." Adds retired Malaysian high commissioner to India and top-notch analyst, Ben Haron: "So long as India is preoccupied with Pakistan over Kashmir, it is robbed of a greater role elsewhere."

Three countries in Asia stand out in any geopolitical consideration: China, India and Japan. While China flexes its military muscle and Japan its economic sinew, India lies dormant "like a lumbering giant kept in its pen by the barks of a determined foe". India, Haron believes, has decided to make forays into the region to counter the growing clout of China not just in Southeast Asia but worldwide. Yet, he and others believe, this initiative should be independent and New Delhi shouldn't come into the region as a satrap of the US, as many in the region dread. This could erode its credibility and diminish its status.

India's indifference to the region is inexplicable. The Andaman islands are only 90 km north of Aceh in Indonesia; yet New Delhi steadfastly refused formal involvement in the region. It rejected an invitation to join asean in 1967, and was in fact tardy in welcoming it, dismissing it superciliously then. Ironically, India is now a dialogue partner.

The story has been one of missed opportunities. Thirty years ago, India had four commercial bank branches in Malaysia; today it has none. In contrast, China then had none; today the Bank of China has reopened with the right to open 13 branches, one in each state of the Malay federation.

Perhaps India's problem was that it presumed veto rights over what happened in the region in the 1960s, as then foreign minister M. C. Chagla hinted to a senior Malaysian minister. It made nonsense of Southeast Asian approaches towards India. When the Organisation of Islamic Countries was mooted, its first secretary-general, former Malaysian prime minister Tengku Abdul Rahman, sent senior Malaysian politician Dato' Abdul Rahman Yaakub to interest India as a member. Tengku could have pulled that through but the arrogant reception he received—that an Islamic organisation can't ignore 160 million Muslims—ensured it would not be invited. Since then, every attempt to join it on the basis of its Muslim population failed, helped also due to Pakistan's veto.

India's current defence moves in Southeast Asia are clearly aimed at China's weak spots. Vietnam and Indonesia are China's persistent foes. Malaysia, though friendly with China, feels the squeeze of the Chinese bear. It has a Chinese minority of 35 per cent amongst its 21 million people, who also dominate the economy. The majority Malay community in Malaysia is nervous of coming too close to China, fearing adverse domestic implications, says a senior Wisma Putra (foreign ministry) official. No wonder Malaysia welcomes informal signs from India of a greater presence.

Haron is more unequivocal: "India is the only country in Asia, besides Vietnam, that can check China's growing clout and role; but it's bogged down with its problems with Pakistan, and believes it can't go beyond its borders." More importantly, he feels, India should now accept that it did not act fast enough, and that its differences with China could spill over into the new millennium.

There is as yet little official comment on India's defence plans in the region. But India made an important gesture in Indonesia when it offered to sell arms in return for palm oil. There is a glut of palm oil in the region and, as Ghazali says, India's decision could open an important avenue of trade and bolster New Delhi's presence there.

India's rising role in Southeast Asia can't be seen in isolation, and is closely linked to the confrontationist US and Chinese presence in the region. China is marking time as Western firms rush in to develop the region. Its military presence is still minimal; its minuscule navy making nonsense of any global role save defending its long coastline. But then the Chinese threat is dictated more by what it could be than for what it is.

The US is in the region as a guaranteeing power, and depends on others to secure its geopolitical dominance. There is already an informal US grouping of Singapore, Brunei and Australia. The new US Secretary of State, Gen Colin Powell, in his confirmation hearings in the Senate described Australia as its sheriff in the region. As De Silva says, "India should also establish closer ties with Australia. It also needs to shift its priorities towards the region." Vajpayee's visit could well mark a beginning.