In the wake of the bloody military operation to neutralise the jihadi elements, which had taken control of the Lal Masjid in Islamabad, President General Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan is facing an ominous threat of a Pashtun mutiny in his security forces.
Individual Pashtuns, not belonging to any particular organisation, have been in the forefront of the wave of suicide bombings and other incidents, which have rocked North Waziristan in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and even Islamabad since July13, 2007. Members of the security forces and elements of the Pakistan People's Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) ofMrs Benazir Bhutto, who had supported the military operation in the Lal Masjid, have been the special targets of attack. While the suicide bombers and other perpetrators have not yet been identified by the police and the intelligence agencies, at least those involved in the incidents in the NWFP and Islamabad are suspected to be Pashtun ex-servicemen, whose children had died in the military operation in the LalMasjid.
The majority of the girls studying in the madrasa located inside the Lal Masjid campus, which suffered the maximum damage and fatalities, belonged to different Pashtun tribal families from the FATA, the NWFP and Islamabad. There were also some from the tribal families of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir(POK).
There have been at least six attacks of suicide terrorism since July 13, 2007, resulting in the deaths of at least 160persons-- 17 of them civilians and the rest the members of the security forces--the Army, the Frontier Constabulary, other para-military forces and the localpolice. Of these, three have been reported from the NWFP, two from North Waziristan and one from Islamabad.
The incident in Islamabad on July 17, 2007, took place near an enclosure in which workers of the PPPP had assembled to welcome Chief Justice Iftikhar Ahmed Chaudhury, who was placed under suspension by Musharraf on March9, 2007.The latest incident on July 18, 2007, has been reported from North Waziristan, where at least 16 Pakistani soldiers were killed in an attack by unidentified elements in the Lwara Mundi area near the Afghan border, about 25km from the town of Miranshah. Initial reports claim that it was more an ambush than a suicide attack.
When the Army raided the Lal Masjid, it had simultaneously rushed reinforcements to North Waziristan and the Malakand area of the NWFP in an attempt to pre-empt any retaliatory violence. The tribals of North Waziristan interpreted the posting of fresh army units in their area as a violation of the controversial peace agreement reached between the security forces and the tribal elders in September last year. Many of the military outposts in the area, which were withdrawn by thegovernment under the peace agreement, were revived as a precautionary measure by the Army when it started its operation in the Lal Masjid. This has added to the tribal anger in the area.
The government adopted a two-pronged approach--strong action against the pro-Al Qaeda Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM), which has been active in the Malakand area of the NWFP, and placatory moves towards the pro-Neo Taliban tribal leaders of North Waziristan in order to convince them that the post-July 13 military operations in the Pashtun belt are directed against Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda elements and not against the Neo Taliban and pro-Neo Taliban elements. This has only further damaged the credibility of Musharraf in the Pashtun tribal belt.Neither the pro-Al Qaeda elements have been controlled nor the pro- Taliban elements been placated.
In the meanwhile, the illegal FM radio stations operated by the mosques and madrasas in the Pashtun belt have been appealing to the Pashtun soldiers and policemen not to let themselves be used by Musharraf and the US. They have also been appealing to the Pashtun tribals not to join the security forces.
Fortunately for Musharraf, these instigatory appeals have not so far had any impact on the Pashtun soldiers of the Army and the Frontier Constabulary, but there have been reports of desertions of Pashtun policemen. It is too early to say what impact these appeals will have on new recruitment.
The Dawn of Karachi wrote on July 18, 2007, as follows: