PAT BUCHANAN
PAT BUCHANAN
Firebrand TV commentator Pat Buchanan has become the Jesse Jackson of the Republicans. His one-man show, which has little organisation or money, has been hugely successful so far, but he has still to prove that he can turn out the vote and fend off attacks nationwide, not least of all from his own party. His anti-free trade, anti-immigration message has gone down well with blue-collar voters who support his "Put America First" economic nationalism. He has the backing of the Christian Coalition for his wholehearted support of "conservative" values. The other candidates most fear Buchanan's ability to bring together a coalition of anti-government, socially conservative Republicans and disenchanted Perot voters. The fact that he has not held elective office does not hurt him for his is a well-known face on American television.
BOB DOLE
Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole is redoubling his emphasis on experience and leadership in the wake of Pat Buchanan's surprise victory in New Hampshire and second-place finish in lowa, which have positioned him as Dole's chief opponent. Buchanan's rise has provided Dole with a compelling new reason for his candidacy: to save the GOP from right-wing 'extremists'. Buchanan's message: Dole is seen as too old—he is 72—and too much of a Washington insider and career politician. Across the country the word is that Dole's support is a mile wide and an inch thin. But the fact remains that, of all the candidates, Dole is the only one with the money and the organisation to stay in the race to the bitter end. However, his lack of charisma, enthusiasm, and a well-defined message have already hurt this candidacy.
STEVE FORBES
After a poor fourth-place finish in New Hampshire and Iowa, many candidates might think of quitting. But not magazine publisher Steve Forbes. He shook up his campaign staff and went on to win Delaware. He is hoping for a boost from this win which he called "the beginning of a comeback." Forbes' next target is New York, where he alone is on all ballots statewide against Dole. He is vowing to take his popular flat-tax message all the way to the convention. He continues to spend $1 million a week on his campain. He has admitted that his mistake in Iowa and New Hampshire was that he got "mired in social issues" and attacked Christian Coalition leaders instead of" keeping the focus on the flat tax". The fact that he has never held elective office is a disadvantage for the publisher but he's not giving up.
LAMAR ALEXANDER
The former governor of Tennessee is positioning himself as a younger, more dynamic Bob Dole and the only one who can beat President Clinton. Although he has changed his message to a "Block Buchanan" slogan, the underlying theme is "Pick me, not Dole—he can't beat Clinton." After getting third place in Iowa and New Hampshire, Alexander needs a win and soon. The forthcoming primaries in the southern states will test whether his appeal can compensate for his lack of money and organisation. Alexander has targeted Dole's lack of a well-defined message. He has also attacked Buchanan's isolationist positions and has vowed to "fight Buchananism". And if elected will move $200,000 million worth of federal programmes out of the Washington government and into the nation's communities.
BILL CLINTON
President William (Bill) Jefferson Blythe IV Clinton hopes to break the jinx that no Democrat in the last 40 years has been elected to a second term. His polls are strong at present, showing he can easily win, but much can happen between now and September, when the campaign can get personal. The Whitewater issue is likely to come back to haunt him as well as 'Travelgate' and the fact that Hillary Clinton may be called on to testify at a time that could be most embarrassing to him. His opponents are certain to bring back the 1992 draft-dodging issue and the 'bimbo eruptions' (Jennifer Flowers, Paula Jones, et al). He has shown that he can learn from past mistakes and this is a point in his favour. Hillary too has been trying to fit into a more traditional First Lady role. Presidential campaigns are usually fought on domestic, not foreign policy issues. But Clinton is likely to dwell on recent successes: Bosnia and Haiti; although the Republicans are sure to hit back with failed policies in China and the Irish peace talks. The economy is in good shape but job insecurity, unemployment, health care, social security and government spending are all likely to become major issues. Clinton's main objective will be to remain presidential and above the fray until August. He has benefited from the recent budget battles and government closures in Washington.
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