UK Urged to Refresh Indo-Pacific Strategy As Modi Visit Nears

On May 6, India and the UK signed a free trade agreement (FTA) to double commerce between the two countries to USD 120 billion by 2030. After going through a "legal scrubbing" process, the document is anticipated to be formally signed during Modi's Thursday meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

PTI reports, "But given India’s protectionist instincts, any final deal is unlikely to be transformative for the bilateral economic relationship. That is why the UK government must support other channels that can expand trade and investment linkages, such as the Technology Security Initiative that was launched in 2024,” the Chatham House paper states.

“More broadly, gambling on India’s economy to rise more or less on its own – in the absence of similar progress in neighbouring economies – would be a poor bet,” it adds.

The think tank's proposals include urging the UK to prioritise regional integration and prosperity over bilateral UK-India relationships and to maintain the "critical" political and economic connection with India.

“Expand the UK’s links with India beyond the recently completed (and long-awaited) trade deal (and) pursue trilateral cooperation involving the UK, India and third-country partners such as France, Australia or the US,” it states.

According to the study, the Indo-Pacific region is home to the bulk of the world's population and is predicted to contribute more than half of global growth by 2050.  South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Pacific nations like Australia, New Zealand, and Japan are all included in the term, which describes a region of nations that lie between the Indian and Pacific seas.

“The region is critical for British interests because it encompasses security risks affecting the UK, presents vital long-term economic opportunities, and is vulnerable to climate risks that – if not mitigated – will have a major impact on the world,” it notes.

“Getting its approach to the Indo-Pacific right will also help the UK to manage the challenges of a more powerful, assertive and globally influential China. Despite limited capacity to shape Beijing’s actions directly, the UK can influence the neighbourhood in which China resides by working with partners to establish and enforce shared norms, and to support regional countries’ sovereignty and resilience,” it adds.

Among its wider recommendations beyond South Asia, Chatham House experts Chietigj Bajpaee, Olivia O'Sullivan, and Ben Bland cover Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea as the “Indo-Pacific Four,” where the UK must defend key partnerships from a "volatile" US and build closer ties on trade and economic security.

Southeast Asia is also flagged by the co-authors for presenting “singular opportunities to expand UK trade and investment”.