'The True Human Cost of War': New Research Tallies Gaza Death Toll At 84,000, 39% Higher Than Official Numbers

A recent study reports that 84,000 people have died in Gaza between October 2023 and January 2025 from both direct and indirect reasons, such as starvation, disease and collapse of the healthcare system. Out of which, at least 75,200 Palestinians suffered violent deaths. This figure is almost 39% higher than that of the Gaza Ministry of Health (GMoH), which reported the death toll to be 45,650.

The study confirmed some of the GMoH data. Such as that the most vulnerable groups consist of women (age 18–64), children (<18), and the elderly (65+). These groups account for 56.2% of the 75,200 violent fatalities calculated in the research.  

The study concluded that the violent death toll of the war resulted in the deaths of around 3.6% of Gaza’s population, exceeding the official GMoH total. It noted that in comparison to the GMoH data, the numbers of the ministry are severely lacking in providing an estimate of the death toll. This highlights the undercounting taking place in Gaza. 

The authors debunk various claims and distorted figures regarding the tally. It notes, “Our findings are also incompatible with claims that: 

(a) The GMoH has “inflated the death toll” 

(b) Indirect deaths could exceed violent deaths by at least a factor of four 

(c) “It is likely that 62,413 people have died of starvation”

This study was led by Michael Spagat of Royal Holloway University of London, and data were collected by the Palestine Centre for Policy and Survey Research. The paper stands as the most comprehensive data and tally collected for the conflict yet. 

The international research team consist of Jon Pedersen, independent researcher, Khalil Shikaki, Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, Michael Robbins, Princeton University, Eran Bendavid, Stanford University, Håvard Hegre, Peace Research Institute Oslo and Debarati Guha-Sapir of Université Catholique de Louvain. 

How did the study tally the numbers?

The methodology of the study explains that the Gaza Morality Survey took the help of the Palestine Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) collected the data from 2,000 households in different regions of Gaza, thus recording the status of over 9,000 people. The team conducted an in-person household survey to estimate deaths in Gaza between October 2023 and January 2025.

The survey took into account population fluctuations brought on by displacement by including those residing in shelters and tent camps.

Why is this survey important? 

Academic, statistical and independent studies play a pivotal role in providing alternative numbers to the public. Mentioned in the author’s notes, “High-quality war mortality estimates play a critical role in illuminating the human cost of war,” emphasising that these tallies are the need of the hour.

Looking on the future, the study which ended data collection on 5 January mentions, “A fragile ceasefire began roughly 10 days after our data collection ended but collapsed with renewed Israeli airstrikes on March 18,” further commenting that the humanitarian situation in Gaza has worsen ever since and that undercounting deaths from the GMoH’s side is likey to continue. 

Predicting that the number of both violent and non-violent deaths is likely to increase with new developments, such as the recent firing in Gaza’s aid centres, the study concludes that “The long-term toll of conflict will probably accumulate over the coming years even if the acute conflict ends. This underscores the importance of continued GMoH surveillance, as well as independent surveys, to properly understand the unfolding dynamics of death,” suggesting that their research will become insignificant with continued conflict in Gaza.