High speed rail (HSR) may not probably be justifiable immediately in a financial sense, but might well be justifiable in the total economic sense, says Louis S. Thompson, Principal of Thompson, Galenson and Associates and a former World Bank transport expert. Excerpts from an email interview with Lola Nayar.
Given your past study of Indian Railways, how feasible is the bullet train plan?
Physically the plan is feasible, perhaps even easy given India's topography. The difficult challenge to engineering feasibility in India would clearly be land acquisition, resettlement and fencing the ROW from trespassers. Economic feasibility is a harder question. There will certainly be demand for HSR services, as India's existing rail passenger demand patterns demonstrate (IR carries more passenger/km than any other railway in the world). At the same time, it is clear that high prices might limit demand while low prices would limit financial feasibility. This can only be answered with careful and professional demand and revenue studies and can be different for every country.
How justified is the proposal to push ahead with high speed trains while there is a huge backlog of maintenance and upgradation work within the existing infrastructure that awaits resources?
This is hard to answer without study of the specific lines proposed and of the alternatives for investment. One might expect that very fast HSR investment might not rank as high as improving existing services and de-congesting the freight network. It is also interesting to contrast the HSR plan with the decision to build new, dedicated rail freight lines in India to de-congest the existing freight lines and in future to introduce new and competing operators on the new lines. Perhaps this is a potential model for HSR as well. One might also ask why there is a backlog of maintenance and upgradation work on the existing system and what the lack of a clear answer might imply for rail service in India.
In the development of a country, how important is a high speed train?
Generally, rail freight is more important in the earlier stages of economic development. This would be particularly true in India until the highway network is also fully developed. Again, though, the Indian Railway passenger traffic levels are so high that HSR might be justifiable even though it would only carry a small percentage of the traffic and serve a limited part of the network.
Globally, barring a few exceptions, bullet trains are a losing proposition. Is it then merely an aspirational proposal or will it help to cut down the travel time, and work to change the dynamics of where people live and work?
The phrase "losing proposition" has to be defined. It is apparently true that only the Tokaido Shinkansen (Tokyo to Osaka) in Japan and the Paris/Lyons TGV are financially profitable in the sense that revenues from passengers cover all operating and investment costs. But, when economic benefits such as time savings, improved safety, reduced emissions, better land use, reduced highway accidents, etc are taken into account, a number of other lines can be economically justified, though this obviously requires public support in return for public benefits. HSR in India would probably not be immediately justifiable in a financial sense, but might well be justifiable in the total economic sense, as is true in other countries.
What impact does a high speed network have on land, environment and towns?
HSR can have a favorable impact on land use because it can permit denser urban development. HSR can have a negative impact on towns and cities due to noise and visual intrusion, but this is often compensated by reduced highway and air use that is even more intrusive. Also, because HSR can be electrically powered, it can reduce emissions (though, in India, use of old coal-fired power stations can reduce the net benefit).
How safe are bullet trains?
HSR can be the safest mode of travel. In Japan, for example, after 50 years there has still never been a single passenger fatality due to a collision or derailment on the Shinkansen. TGV in France also has never had a passenger fatality due to an accident.
How do they compare with air travel in terms of convenience and affordability?
HSR is definitely more convenient and frequent than air between the points that HSR serves. HSR fares may or may not be cheaper than air depending on the financial objectives of the HSR operator. Generally, HSR is somewhat cheaper: for example, the California HSR project expects to set its fares at about 80 per cent of air.
This web-exclusive interview does not appear in print magazine.
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