"The Congress is in a confident mood today because the BJP is in much worse shape."
How A Slips ToB Minus
UPA's well-intentionedefforts make a little difference—but cause &effect mismatch is wide
Inder Malhotra, Commentator
"NREGS and SSA monitoring has improved and should reflect in outcomes too."
Dr Pronab Sen, Secretary, Union statistics & programme implementation ministry
"With government finances in a mess, where will we raise resources for primary healthcare and education?"
Jagdish Shettigar, BJP economic cell
"The financial sector is not as strong as we think. A lot of subprime lending has occurred."
Jayati Ghosh, economist
"Anecdotal evidence shows labour is more difficult to find in areas where NREGS is doing well, and wages are higher too."
Mahesh Vyas, CMIE
"TB, malaria were major problems when we were kids. Now we are old, but they remain so."
Dr Rajesh Tandon, PRIA
"RTI and Forest Rights Act recognise people's rights but the story is yet to unfold."
Amitabh Behar, National Centre for Advocacy Studies
"Without a strong saving and investment climate, corporates will be squeezed out."
Siddhartha Roy, economic advisor, Tata Group
***
Employment
1. The Promise
100 days of employment every year at minimum wages, for at least one person in every poor household.
100 days of employment every year at minimum wages, for at least one person in every poor household.
UPA’s action
National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme launched in Feb 2006 and extended to all 604 rural districts in 2008-09.
National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme launched in Feb 2006 and extended to all 604 rural districts in 2008-09.
The Reality
Restricted to rural districts; states want scope expanded; hampered by corruption, implementation hurdles.
Restricted to rural districts; states want scope expanded; hampered by corruption, implementation hurdles.
2. The Promise
To set up a national commission to examine problems firms in the unorganised, informal sector are facing.
To set up a national commission to examine problems firms in the unorganised, informal sector are facing.
UPA’s action
Commission has been set up, has submitted an exhaustive series of reports on workers’ conditions in informal sector.
Commission has been set up, has submitted an exhaustive series of reports on workers’ conditions in informal sector.
The reality
Two bills were introduced in Parliament but didn’t reflect recommendations. Unclear if they’ll create required effects.
Two bills were introduced in Parliament but didn’t reflect recommendations. Unclear if they’ll create required effects.
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***
The Promise
Gradually raise public expenditure on education to 6% of GDP or more. Usher in aknowledge economy.
Gradually raise public expenditure on education to 6% of GDP or more. Usher in aknowledge economy.
UPA’s action
A primary education cess of 2% introduced in 2005; raised to 3% in 2008. Knowledge Commission set up, gave many reports.
A primary education cess of 2% introduced in 2005; raised to 3% in 2008. Knowledge Commission set up, gave many reports.
The reality
Allocation for education half of target at 2.84% of GDP. Turf wars put paid to commission’s reform proposals.
Allocation for education half of target at 2.84% of GDP. Turf wars put paid to commission’s reform proposals.
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The Promise
Review delivery rate for rural credit, double it in 3 years; ease burden of debt and high interest rates on farm loans.
Review delivery rate for rural credit, double it in 3 years; ease burden of debt and high interest rates on farm loans.
UPA’s action
Farm loans have been made available at 7%. A loan waiver of Rs 70,000 crore was announced in ’08.
Farm loans have been made available at 7%. A loan waiver of Rs 70,000 crore was announced in ’08.
The Reality
Package followed suicides by over 5,000 farmers; issues in implementation; agriculture did not grow by hoped-for 4%.
Package followed suicides by over 5,000 farmers; issues in implementation; agriculture did not grow by hoped-for 4%.
***
1. The Promise
Raise public expenditure on health to a minimum of 2-3% of GDP over five years.
Raise public expenditure on health to a minimum of 2-3% of GDP over five years.
UPA’s action
Allocation for health, family welfare hiked in successive UPA budgets.
Allocation for health, family welfare hiked in successive UPA budgets.
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The Reality
Public spending on health yet to touch even 1.5% of GDP.
Public spending on health yet to touch even 1.5% of GDP.
2. The Promise
Ensure that life-saving drugs are available at reasonable prices.
Ensure that life-saving drugs are available at reasonable prices.
UPA’s action
Despite protests, drug-makers forced to reduce margins on over 1,000 basic formulations.
Despite protests, drug-makers forced to reduce margins on over 1,000 basic formulations.
The Reality
A new pharma policy that will tackle price issues still not in sight; tougher law against spurious drugs cleared.
A new pharma policy that will tackle price issues still not in sight; tougher law against spurious drugs cleared.
***
The Promise
To fully empower women politically, educationally, economically and legally.
To fully empower women politically, educationally, economically and legally.
UPA’s action
Law to protect victims of domestic violence enacted. Women's Reservation Bill introduced.
Law to protect victims of domestic violence enacted. Women's Reservation Bill introduced.
The Reality
No consensus on seats to be reserved; Domestic Violence Act faces implementationhurdles.
No consensus on seats to be reserved; Domestic Violence Act faces implementationhurdles.
***
The Promise
A corruption-free and accountable government. To make right to information actually viable.
A corruption-free and accountable government. To make right to information actually viable.
UPA’s action
The RTI Act was implemented in November 2006; but Lok Pal Bill not seen or heard of.
The RTI Act was implemented in November 2006; but Lok Pal Bill not seen or heard of.
The Reality
The RTI Act is a key achievement, but bureaucratic and political pressures give it limited impact.
The RTI Act is a key achievement, but bureaucratic and political pressures give it limited impact.
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***
1. The Promise
The public distribution system to be strengthened, especially in the poor and backward districts.
The public distribution system to be strengthened, especially in the poor and backward districts.
UPA’s action
Some attempts have been made to modernise the public distribution system in most states.
Some attempts have been made to modernise the public distribution system in most states.
The Reality
However, pilferage, adulteration and poor quality of wares continue to plague fair price shops.
However, pilferage, adulteration and poor quality of wares continue to plague fair price shops.
2. The Promise
Control escalation in prices of essential commodities with welfare of the common man in mind.
Control escalation in prices of essential commodities with welfare of the common man in mind.
UPA’s action
As inflation soared in ’08, trading in some commodities put on hold; action against hoarders.
As inflation soared in ’08, trading in some commodities put on hold; action against hoarders.
The Reality
UPA managed to rein in the price rise but ended up squeezing liquidity from the system.
UPA managed to rein in the price rise but ended up squeezing liquidity from the system.
***
1. The Promise
Strengthen all regulatory institutions to ensure that competition is free and fair.
Strengthen all regulatory institutions to ensure that competition is free and fair.
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UPA’s action
Regulators are generally free; Competition Commission of India yet to bekickstarted.
Regulators are generally free; Competition Commission of India yet to bekickstarted.
The Reality
Many sectors, such as healthcare, do not yet have a regulatory framework.
Many sectors, such as healthcare, do not yet have a regulatory framework.
2. The Promise
To introduce VAT and take steps to raise tax-GDP ratio and expand tax-paying base.
To introduce VAT and take steps to raise tax-GDP ratio and expand tax-paying base.
UPA’s action
VAT has been introduced and the tax-GDP ratio has been rising; currently at 12.5%.
VAT has been introduced and the tax-GDP ratio has been rising; currently at 12.5%.
The Reality
A Goods & Services Tax, a uniform tax for all services and goods is slated to be introduced by 2010.
A Goods & Services Tax, a uniform tax for all services and goods is slated to be introduced by 2010.
3. The Promise
Eliminate revenue deficit of the Centre by 2009. Release more resources for investment in infrastructure.
Eliminate revenue deficit of the Centre by 2009. Release more resources for investment in infrastructure.
UPA’s action
The target for 2006-07 was met, but not thereafter. The large deficit is a key concern.
The target for 2006-07 was met, but not thereafter. The large deficit is a key concern.
The Reality
The rising deficit is attributed to expenses on the farm-loan waiver and relief measures to counter the global slowdown.
The rising deficit is attributed to expenses on the farm-loan waiver and relief measures to counter the global slowdown.
4. The Promise
Encourage and actively seek FDI, especially in infrastructure and high technology.
Encourage and actively seek FDI, especially in infrastructure and high technology.
UPA’s action
FDI limits relaxed in retail, IT, civil aviation, construction, media and so on.
FDI limits relaxed in retail, IT, civil aviation, construction, media and so on.
The Reality
Inflows rose, but key reforms in the financial sector could not be pushed through.
Inflows rose, but key reforms in the financial sector could not be pushed through.
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