Catch The Influenza

• Efficient and uncompromising administrator.
• Knows to cut red tape to facilitate economic growth.
• Delivers on developing infrastructure.
• Charismatic and a talented mass campaigner.
• Does not encourage cronies or hangers-on.

• Autocratic and authoritarian.
• The stain of Gujarat 2002 and his unapologetic silence.
• Disregards minorities and other marginalised sections.
• Feared by colleagues in BJP and by some in Sangh parivar.
• Some NDA allies will be uncomfortable with his projection on the national stage.

***

"A PM must have intellectual honesty. I don’t think Narendra Modi has the capacity to lead the country."

—Russi Modi, Former CMD, Tata Steel

"I don’t agree that industry as a whole would endorse an individual. Media has to take a rational view." 

—S.P. Oswal, Chairman, Vardhman Group

"Gujarat is a great place to do business. What Modi has done for the state is almost magical."

—Kushagra Bajaj, Joint MD, Bajaj Hindustan

"To be the PM, it isn’t enough to have a sense of industry. A PM must be progressive, and not have religious biases."

—Sunil Gangopadhyay, President, Sahitya Akademi

"Till Modi makes some sort of apology for Gujarat 2002, he will not be acceptable to India as a whole."

—Gurcharan Das, Ex-CEO, Procter & Gamble

"It’s good public ethics that Modi doesn’t take bribes. But not taking lives should also be valued as an ethic."

—Ashish Nandy, Political psychologist

***

ome captains of Indian industry recently let the nation know (on the eve of a general election) that in Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi they have spotted a leader of great ability, a man who should be the next prime minister. This is not the first time industrialists have sung paeans to Modi. It's almost an annual ritual in Modi's Gujarat. Every January, NRIs and industrialists collect for the Vibrant Gujarat meet and speak of the genius of the Man.

Indeed, the projection of Modi as a national icon is part of an ongoing political project, supported strongly by business that seeks to eventually instal him at the pivot of Indian politics. The transformation of the pracharak to a man who casually strides with the captains of industry is in itself a story. At the superficial level, it is about sartorial change. But it's also about his mastery of media and image projection. From a hated figure, he has managed to clothe himself in positive hues.

Yet Modi evokes strong emotions. The question is: will what is good for India Inc work for the Republic of India? Gurcharan Das, writer and former CEO of Procter & Gamble, says that Modi poses a dharamsankat for the nation: "He has done well in many areas, but Modi has to make a magnanimous gesture—say like the Truth & Reconciliation Commission in South Africa. We would like the good governance he has given in Gujarat elsewhere. But till he makes some sort of apology for Gujarat 2002, he won't be acceptable to India as a whole, whatever a few corporates might say."

But the Modi persona is all about imposing his way and not about reconciliation. This is, in fact, part of his appeal in towns across middle India. An average middle-class Indian, fed up with systems that don't work, may see in Modi a no-nonsense leader who can fix things with a big stick or sweep away corruption. Conversely, a huge nation like India, in the era of coalitions, is run on compromises. Has he learnt the skill of talking to potential allies as opposed to talking at them?

Besides, there is the larger question of social justice, not addressed in Modi's scheme of things. As Achyut Yagnik, co-author of The Shaping of Modern Gujarat, says: "The mercantile ethos in Gujarat supercedes other influences. It is a land whose history has been determined by trade and commerce." So Modi may be great for corporate bottomlines, but there is no real evidence of how he would connect with the marginalised in other parts of the country?"

Suraj Prasad Agrawal, president of the Andhra Pradesh Chamber of Commerce, says: "Modi stirs up positive feelings among the haves. But what of the have-nots? It is their vote that matters. Given our diversities, I find it difficult to see him succeed at the national level."

But there is a section of the poor Modi does appeal to. He is an effective campaigner in belts of tribal India, where he dons the hat of a "Hindu leader" who speaks against conversion, Christian missionaries and money-lenders (who are often Muslims). He is therefore much more than just a politician in the CEO mould, once personified by Chandrababu Naidu. He represents the cutting edge of Hindutva, though he may have had serious differences with members of the RSS and VHP. He is also the great liberaliser and practitioner of genuine right-wing economics. Finally, there is the strong leader, the man who charts his own way and succeeds.

The Modi persona panders to a complex set of emotions. Right-wing ideologue Swapan Dasgupta believes he is a long-distance traveller. "I have personally seen his ability to learn fast. A phenomenon like Modi can work at the national level if there is a certain mood at the time. I know he has no intention of elbowing his way into this election but is in the race in the future."

The idea of Modi as PM deeply troubles many, including Magsaysay awardwinning political psychologist Ashis Nandy. Besides bearing the stain of the 2002 riots, Modi is an authoritarian who trusts no one and would consider compromise a sign of weakness. That is why Nandy says: "It is very good public ethics that he does not take bribes. But not taking lives should also be valued as a public ethic." He also explains the phenomenon of the authoritarian being popular in fast-growing economies. "After World War II, we have the example of Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan, which have grown rapidly, bestowing respect on autocratic leaders and being content with limited democracy, if any," says Nandy. It is noteworthy that while the US continues to deny Modi a visa, he has visited many countries in Southeast Asia and is particularly friendly with the leadership of Singapore.

What we have in Modi is a paradox of sorts. On the one hand, many claim he has delivered on governance and created a cult of personality. But he is yet to show the core values of tolerance, forgiveness, humility and grace. Sunil Gangopadhyay, writer and president of the Sahitya Akademi, says, "Before we see anyone as a future PM, should we not expect him to be progressive and liberal and free of religious and other biases? I have never seen any sign that Modi possesses such qualities."

Contrary to the media hype, it is not as if the entire business community is waiting with bated breath for a Modi takeover. S.P. Oswal, chairman of Vardhman Group, told Outlook: " I don't think industry as a collective group should be or is endorsing one individual. The media should take a rational view of things." And Russi Modi, former chairman of Tata Steel, just says, "Modi does not have the essential qualities for a future PM." As Narendar Pani of the National Institute of Advanced Studies in Bangalore points out, "Industry has never put in place a prime minister. They only play along with whoever occupies the chair. To become PM, Modi and the BJP will have to reach out to diverse social groups and not to industrialists alone, who shower praises."

Even within his own party and parivar there are mixed feelings towards Modi. There are those who actively hate him, but prefer to say nothing in the face of his power and success. Even the many who revere him admit they are mildly afraid of him. Some colleagues resent his grandstanding but keep silent. There is also a problem with the "Modi for PM" pitch within the NDA. Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar has made it clear that any over-projection of Modi by the BJP would be a disaster for their alliance. Nitish had ensured that Modi did not campaign in the Bihar assembly elections. Naveen Patnaik in Orissa is also more comfortable with L.K. Advani. But Advani is often overshadowed by Modi and some of his supporters fear this may undermine his campaign and confidence.

Yet it is also undeniable that Modi is the one leader in the Hindutva pantheon who can alter the chemistry of an election. He combines a grasp of economic issues with a genuine talent for an energetic mass campaign. He is sharp and smart and has figured out a way to make the bureaucracy bend to his will. That in itself would be an achievement. But even if the nation was to get collective amnesia about his controversial past, many would argue that politics is not just about delivery systems and flourishing businesses. It is also about social change and distributive justice.

To cross the final barriers to his own elevation, Modi would have to soften his persona. An unbending leader may reach great heights in a small and homogeneous state but to be successful on the national stage requires all manner of compromise and tact.
 

By Saba Naqvi with Dola Mitra in Calcutta, Sugata Srinivasaraju in Bangalore, Chander Suta Dogra in Chandigarh and Venugopal Pillai in Hyderabad