Bijli-Sadak-Aadmi

UPA's Middle Path To Reforms

What reforms may happen

More clarity on FDI and FII norms to attract and retain investment
Stimulus for exporters/SMEs through cheaper credit, more concessions
Revisit financial sector reforms, slowly push forward the opening up of retail trade
Boost farm output by focusing on institutional credit and rural infrastructure
Greater devolution of funds and power to districts for implementing central projects
Extension of NREGA for developing infrastructure, providing more jobs
Larger private sector role in primary/secondary education
Better pay and infrastructure for doctors and staff in rural areas

And what may not

Privatisation of PSUs; stake sale through initial public offerings most likely route
Greater accountability of states and ministries for poor fundutilisation and outcomes
Labour reforms to ensure better social security benefits for lower-rung workers
Comprehensive resettlement-rehab policy for people displaced by big projects
Making it mandatory for firms to invest in skill development, waste management
Annual review of educational institutions, particularlytechnical colleges
Power and drinking water supply to all households by 2012
Remove subsidy on cooking fuels, completely link it to market prices

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The Spoilers

Large government borrowing and fiscal deficit will limit capacity to push ahead with state-funded projects
Traditional divide within Congress on reforms, and the way ahead to put the economy back on the path of high growth
While the Left is out of the picture, TMC's Mamata Banerjee could prove to be a stumbling block to reforms
Old arrogance of Congress could prevent consensus in crucial areas, like subsidy to the poor or spectrum allocation

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Mega Investments On Hold

ArcelorMittal, Jindal Steel and Power and Sterlite Iron and Steel projects in Orissa and Jharkhand are yet to take off
Ultra-Mega Power projects in Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Each would require an investment of Rs 16,000-20,000 crore.
POSCO’s $12-billion steel project in Orissa has been stalled since June 2005
Tata Steel’s proposed project in Bastar in Chhattisgarh hit by farmers protests
NHPC’s Rs 2,300 crore Koel-Karo Hydel Power Project in Jharkhand is likely to be abandoned

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T

Outlook

By Lola Nayar with Pragya Singh, Arti Sharma and Arindam Mukherjee

Human infrastructure is the buzz. The reforms thrust will be more social sector spending.