Why The PM Should Not Go

The suspense over Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s decision to attend the forthcoming Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Colombo, scheduled for November 15, may soon be over.

There is a rising opinion in the political circles here that wants Manmohan Singh to stay away from the meet. But the foreign ministry establishment in Delhi seems to be in favour of his participation at the CHOGM. The decision, it appears, has been left to the Prime Minister, and is likely to be announced shortly.

While India should definitely attend the CHOGM, it should not ask Manmohan Singh to attend it. Either the vice President, Hamid Ansari, or someone else should be sent in his place to represent India. The reason is simple: Delhi should take this opportunity to send out a very strong signal to the Mahinda Rajapaksa government in Colombo.

Broadly there are two main reasons to do this. One, it is an ideal opportunity to express India’s unhappiness over the Sri Lankan government’s decision to dilute the 13th Amendment. Two, it is time for India to tell Sri Lanka that it cannot continue to play the ‘China card’ every time to force a decision out of India in its favour.

Over the past weeks, political parties in Tamil Nadu as well as Congress leaders from the state have been demanding that India, like Canada, should boycott the CHOGM. Their opposition to India’s participation stems from the alleged human rights violation committed by the Sri Lankan government during and after the 2009 ethnic war against the Tamil Tigers. Video footage and photographs that have been circulated in different sections clearly show that many innocent civilians have been killed by the Sri Lankan army in ‘cold blood’—though all these charges have been denied by Colombo.

But irrespective of the veracity of the charges levelled against the Sri Lankan army and government of human rights violation during the ethnic war, the attempt of the Rajapaksa government to dilute the 13th Amendment, poses a bigger challenge to India.

The proposed amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution that flows from the 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Agreement signed by Rajiv Gandhi and J. R. Jayawardane is regarded as the centre piece to bring the Tamils and other minorities in the state at par with the Sinhala majority. Despite several attempts by Indian leaders and senior officials to convey to the Sri Lankan on the urgency and importance of implementing the 13th Amendment, Colombo had been dragging its feet. The Sri Lankan leadership has also conveyed to the Indians, on how and why it will be difficult for them to implement the crucial amendment and offer the kind of autonomy that it proposes.

India feels the 13th Amendment is crucial to regain the trust and confidence of the Tamils and other minorities in the island in the Sri Lankan political system. Any dilution of the provisions of the amendment will make the Tamils feel that they have been short-changed. If such a feeling gathers ground, then in spite of trying to find a political solution to their demand democratically—as witnessed in the Tamil National Alliance’s overwhelming victory in recent elections of the Northern Provinces—hard-line and militant sections among the Tamils are likely to dominate the future discourse. It could then give rise to a fresh bout of violent activities to realize the demands of the Tamil minorities. This would then throw the country yet again to a prolonged period of violence and instability. Such a possibility is neither good for the Sri Lankans; nor for India, nor the region.

Despite their emphatic victory over the Tamil Tigers in the 2009 ethnic war the Sri Lankan leadership should do well to remember that Prabhakarn was the effect; not the cause for the decade long violence and instability in Sri Lanka. Attempts by them to dilute the 13th Amendment and deny the Tamils and other minorities a rightful stake in the system, would be harmful for Sri Lanka in the years to come.

Such sage advice given by India to the Rajapaksa regime has so far fallen on deaf ears. The Sri Lankan leadership has found ways to delay the changes required in the country’s constitution by arguing that in the absence of a proper national consensus, the autonomy package for the Tamils would not work. But in the past four years, no serious attempt has been made by Colombo to implement the 13th Amendment. In fact, Indian officials engaged with the Sri Lankan leaders on this issue have returned with the distinct impression that Colombo now wants to give the ‘victor’s justice’ to the Tamils and other minorities in the island. In effect, it means that the Rajapkasa regime is willing to offer only an autonomy package to the Tamils that it is comfortable with. It is not putting forward a package that would meaningfully address the sense of alienation among the minorities and allow them to participate in the Sri Lankan system as full citizens of the country.

The other important issue stems from Sri Lanka’s penchant to play the ‘China card’ against India. For the past years, China’s growing influence and presence in the island have been a cause for worry in sections in the Indian foreign policy establishment. While Delhi must keep a close watch on Chinese activities there, it cannot be over-obsessive of what China is doing or might do in Sri Lanka. There is no doubt that Sri Lanka’s geographical position is of strategic importance to India. But it is about time that neither Colombo nor Delhi should over-state it. If India succumbs to Sri Lanka’s attempt at playing the ‘China card’ at every available opportunity, then it would act as a convenient tactic for the other South Asian neighbours to use it during future negotiations with India.

If the Prime Minister stays away from attending the CHOGM, it will definitely bring some fresh strains in Indo-Sri Lankan relations. But it will also provide India a good opportunity of registering its protest and expressing its displeasure at Colombo. Perhaps, it would also pave the way for a more meaningful dialogue between the two sides than the one they had been having so far, in the coming days.