The Double Bind

The BJP is in a classic double bind in Karnataka. The way the numbers are aligned in the legislature unit of the party and the manner in which positions have progressively hardened on both sides of the divide -- in chief minister Yeddyurappa's camp and the rebel Reddy camp - - leaves very little to hope for in terms of a lasting solution.

The Reddy camp, as on Monday, has claimed 60 MLAs to be backing their leadership-change enterprise and on Saturday, the CM's camp naively admitted the support of 83 MLAs, thereby indirectly accepting an erosion of authority. The BJP has 117 members, plus the support of six independent legislators. This would clearly mean that one of the two camps is exaggerating its numbers. Assuming that it is the rebels who are puffing up the figures, if you randomly decide to knock off 20 members from their camp, they would still be left with 40 members. That is the number that the CM's camp has anyway granted them and it is more than sufficient to bring down the government or force a leadership change. The halfway mark in the Assembly is 113. 

It is in this background that the central leadership of the saffron party has to make its choice in a paradoxically choice- less situation. Whatever it may do to for now, the bandage may come off sooner than expected to expose the wound yet again. If Yeddyurappa continues as CM, the others may take an extreme, suicidal step or wait for another opportunity to regroup with an impregnable strategy. If speaker Jagadish Shettar, as being demanded by the Reddy camp, succeeds in climbing on to the CM's chair, then Yeddyurappa, a born again rebel, will do everything in his powers to destabilise the new set up.

Moral arguments won't hold water here, it is only numbers that will bring triumph or cause defeat. Why I say this is because many people in the CM's camp have belatedly become aware of the wrongdoings of the Reddys. They are attempting to tilt public opinion by saying that they are the 'moneybags' and their ill-gotten wealth comes from 'illegal mining'. That they are 'goons' with several criminal cases against them, etc. In fact, their status as 'moneybags' and 'goons' predates the April-May 2008 Assembly elections, during which the declared intention of the Reddys was to put Yeddyurappa on the CM's saddle. 

The same Yeddyurappa, who had then been spited by the Gowda family, allowed them a free reign in many districts of Central and North Karnataka, allowed them to pick their poll candidates, and encouraged them to spend unprecedented sums of money for the elections. Why just the assembly polls, even in the May 2009 Lok Sabha polls the money spent from the Reddy coffers was an open secret. Again, in the exercise to poach MLAs from opposition parties and increase the strength of the BJP, which had fallen three short of majority, it is a well-known vulgar fact as to who spent the money. The Reddys all the while acted as venture capitalists for a nascent BJP government in Karnataka and are now demanding a return on their investments. Yeddyurappa, who is now desperately trying to construct a statesmanlike image for himself should scan his conscience before he makes any moral or self-righteous assertions. 

The other thing that Yeddyurappa has to reflect upon is the manner in which he has treated the people around him. An interesting aspect about this present rebellion is that many legislators in the Reddy camp do not look up to them. They know the truth about the Reddys. But, they are huddled together simply because they hate Yeddyurappa. They want somebody to avenge their humiliations and who else would they think of but the Reddys? Many cabinet colleagues and legislators in the CM's camp too are also not very convinced about their leader. They would gladly tell you off the record how Yeddyurappa is never given to consulting and never gives them the freedom to sign their departmental files. The controls rest with either the CM's two sons or with his 'favourite' minister Shobha Karandlaje, they allege. The Reddys have understood this discontentment pretty well and have tried to capture it with the help of their generous resources. 

One may ask here if the discontent of his colleagues was not visible to Yeddyurappa. There were ample warnings in the air during the last three to four months. But here, his spin doctors created a maze of self-deception. They made him look larger than real with front page praises. He believed in this mythology and thought of himself as an 'undisputed' leader of the masses. Even in the middle of the crisis he has tried to obstinately reside in this illusory image without recognising the dwindling numbers. Even a casual survey of the last 16 months of his rule will reveal that the ad-spend by his government in the local media has been unprecedented. The number of delegations he has led to Delhi for various purposes would also be ridiculously high. Once or twice that Yeddyurappa has been shaken in the last few days, he has pleaded in public to be given a chance to "improve his behaviour". An Opposition leader said that one could understood Yeddyurappa's "obstinacy," "arrogance" and "self-righteousness" if his administration was incorruptible, but then, it has simply not been so. 

If I could go a step further to interpret the crisis, then the Reddys are also aware that people have qualms about associating with them. They know that their money alone can't buy them power and control. Therefore they strategise well. This current plan of propelling the government into crisis, it is reliably learnt, has been in the works for three months now. It is significant that that they have not sought power for themselves but have said that Jagdish Shettar, the speaker, should take over. Why Shettar? Because he belongs to the same Lingayat community as Yeddyurappa and is perhaps the only one with as much experience in the party and in the Assembly as Yeddyurappa. He was the leader of opposition during the Krishna regime, he was the state BJP president, he was a cabinet minister under H D Kumaraswamy and is now the speaker. To top it all, he is a swayamsevak and has never lost an election. In terms of personality, he is a contrast to the haughty Yeddyurappa. He is mild-mannered, slow and lacks ambition. Yet, his grasp of policy and parliamentary procedure is far greater than many in the state BJP. The Reddys knew that by projecting him their numbers would swell. According to a source, the initial numbers that the Reddys commanded were as small as 20. But with Shettar's name coming up, there was a voluntary disclosure of loyalties. What also helped the Reddys in addition was the ill-will that Shettar himself nursed against the CM, who had refused him a cabinet berth in May 2008 and had forced him to occupy the speaker's chair. By his action then, Yeddyurappa had made it known whom he really feared as his competition.

In the present situation, the demographics backing the BJP are so aligned that it is largely believed that a leader chosen to head the government can't be from any other group, other than the majority Lingayat community. It was the firm backing of this community that had put the South's first BJP government in the saddle. This community, ever since Ramakrishna Hegde and the Janata parivar in the state had grown weak, had shifted allegiance to the BJP. It is common knowledge in the BJP that the community's faith in the party cannot be taken for granted. This is also why Brahmin Ananth Kumar's secret bid to outsmart everybody in the race to get the top post may be ill-conceived. The numbers would simply vanish if he is projected. There is also a trust deficit in the party when it comes to him. At best, he could be a co-conspirator with the Reddy's to politically slay his bête noire. If Ananth Kumar's elevation is to become a reality, it cannot happen without first giving Shettar a chance and allowing him to fail.

There is some talk that Gowda's JD(S) may be fishing in troubled waters and are inclined to align with Yeddyurappa, yet again, if their common enemy pulls out just about 20 or 25 legislators. If the numbers go beyond this the JD(S) has no numbers to save Yeddyurappa. The Congress however thinks that the BJP has pressed the self-destruction button and it is only a matter of time before the party vanished into thin air. As always, Congress wants to win by default than by design. However, if one assumes that Yeddyurappa will tide over this crisis, he will have to be content to rest on a bed of compromises.