Calcutta Corner

Anti-Climax

The ostensibly explosive piece of news somehow lacks sting. The announcement by Mamata Banerjee that she is withdrawing support from the UPA II government was supposed to have felt like a big blow, throwing the entire nation into a state of chaos and confusion about what will happen next. The central government’s biggest coalition partner pulling the rug from under it wasn’t supposed to feel like such a damp squib, devoid of urgency. But that’s what it feels like. On the streets of Calcutta some are calling it an “anti-climax.” Rahul Ghosh, a medical representative, who hung around Town Hall, where TMC held its closed-door meeting, pointed out, “We were waiting with bated breath to see what Didi does. We knew that there were two options. Either she would pull the plug or she would do what she had been doing so far—that is, give the Congress government yet another ultimatum and continue. But this is neither here nor there.” Shyamoli Banerjee, a college student seconds his disappointment. “Actually, I thought that she would not withdraw support judging by how she kept threatening to do it and then ultimately backing out. I don’t think it’s a good idea to pull the government down at this stage because mid-term polls is not something I want. But if the decision has been taken, then why drag one’s feet on it?” Indeed, even though the TMC chief is calling it a withdrawal of support, commentators in Calcutta are looking at it as really another ultimatum, and not the real thing. “She seems to have left the option open for the Congress to negotiate so that she doesn’t really have to come out of the government,” remarked a political analyst, pointing out that she has decided that her ministers would tender the resignations to the Prime Minister on Friday, that is two days from today giving the centre enough time to make amends.

72 Hours

So why did Mamata Banerjee decide to give it another 72 hours before the resignations take place? According to commentators in Calcutta the last thing that the Bengal chief minister wants to do is pull out. She knows that defeating the Left Front government in the state was made possible by her forging an alliance with the Congress and that was made possible by the Left’s withdrawing support to the UPA I. She knows that if she and the Congress are no longer together, there is every chance that the Congress and the Left would join hands once again. She also knows that if that happens at the centre, it can happen in the state. And if that happens in the state, her assertions that the TMC can go it alone here may not hold. Because while the TMC may defeat the Congress and the Left if they fight her separately, she certainly cannot take that for granted if they fight her united. So if you read between the lines of what she is saying she is really giving the Congress a chance to woo her back. She gave the Congress 72 hours to roll back the decision on diesel price hike, the cap on subsidized gas cylinders and FDI in retail and according to insiders she was anxiously waiting for a call from Delhi—either Manmohan Singh or Sonia Gandhi, if not both. She had got sort of used to that in her initial days in UPA II with the Congress High Command often giving in to her demands—for instance the Teesta water-sharing issue or even seat-sharing arrangements in Bengal. But it was recently—namely when Mamata opposed Congress’s choice of Pranab Mukherjee as President—that perhaps for the first time Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi decided to snub their defiant ally. Ultimately, Mamata came around to their choice and in a sense conceded defeat. Their not calling or trying to pacify Mamata is a new strategy which seems to be working. It is also a political gamble they are now ready to take. Over time the Congress leadership in UPA II has sharpened its skills on how to cultivate one set of allies when another goes against it. In her speech this evening Mamata referred to it when she said that the Congress turns to Mayawati when it suits them and then to Mulayam and then to Nitish and then to Laloo and so on.

Burden or Blessing?

What does it mean for the Bengal Congress? Barely had the meeting got over that the street corners in Calcutta became grounds for political speeches with Congress party activists taking the podium to announce their displeasure with the TMC’s lack of alliance ethics. Speaking to us, Congress MLA Adhir Chowdhury said, “This is a reflection of a complete betrayal of the spirit of alliance.” However, he averred that the TMC alliance in Bengal was more of a burden than a blessing claiming that the Congress party’s growth has been stunted in Bengal because of its seat-sharing with TMC. Pointing out that thought it was a decision that the Congress High Command would have to take, he said that if Mamata’s decision means that the state alliance between TMC and Congress would also break up, he didn’t mind at all.

Advantage Left?

What does it mean for the Left? The Left found itself in the uncomfortable position of being in the same side of the dispute as the TMC over the issues of FDI in retail, diesel price hike and the cap on subsidized gas cylinders. Perhaps in order to find at least one point through which it could distance itself from TMC, Left leaders—Prakash Karat and Biman Basu as well as others—pointed out that they had successfully kept FDI in retail at bay during UPA I even though they were supporting it from the outside. The TMC, in spite of being in the government couldn’t do it. Well, to be fair to Mamata Banerjee, what else can she do to show her disapproval other than to withdraw support? Whether that withdrawal—if it really happens—will topple the government or not we will have to wait and see but she is trying her best. But if the withdrawal does take place, the people and the party to watch out for would be the Left. If they want to come to back to power in Bengal, they might just forge an alliance.

Sign of the Times

An SMS rhyme already arrived in my inbox: Monmohoner sarkar…Didi’r nei dorkar…[The Manmohan government does not need Didi]