America After Trump

In about a week’s time he will legitimately become the new occupant of the White House when on January 20 he formally takes over as America’s 45th President. But governments in different parts of the globe are already busy parsing through remarks he made during his election campaign and especially, those that came out since his victory in the November presidential election.

Trump has already ruffled several diplomatic feathers with his remarks that has ranged from ending the ‘One China’ policy to re-working America’s age-old ties with American allies in Asia and Europe; while, seeking to re-visit US-NATO relations. His intention of scaling down hostilities with Russia and look for areas of cooperation with Washington’s erstwhile Cold War adversary has also created much disquiet among senior members in the Republican Party.

But what worries people most are how the US relations would pan out with Iran under a Donald Trump Presidency? Will Trump, as he has threatened to do, re-open the nuclear deal with Iran for fresh negotiations? And if he does so what are the implications for future US-Iran relations and its impact on the volatile West Asia?

Commentators, both within and outside the US fear the strong dislike among sections in America for the Islamic Republic is likely to intensify under the Trump Presidency and the resulting hostility could even lead the two sides to war in the coming days.

“Ingredients are falling, tragically into place for a possible war with Iran,” Paul Pilar, a former CIA analyst wrote in the National Interest recently.

The Iran nuclear deal hammered in after years of negotiations between the US, other members of the P-5 and Germany, had been Barack Obama Presidency’s signature foreign policy achievement. But both during his campaign and afterwards Trump had derided the deal and threatened to re-negotiate it.

“A direct rejection of the deal remains unlikely since the US would then pick a fight with not just Iran, but China, Russia, and the EU-3 as well. Moreover, the US would be blamed for the collapse of the deal and could find itself isolated,” says president of the Washington based National Iranian-American Council.

According to him, trying to re-negotiated the deal would also be problematic since that would require a ‘green light’ from the rest of the P5, and there no indications that any P5 state would be open to renegotiation. “From their perspective, the deal is a huge success and you don’t fix what’s not broken,” he adds.

But can the US administration impose fresh sanctions on Iran?

Parsi, however, points out that even “new sanctions from US Congress would be a violation of the deal if they target Iran’s nuclear programme or if they try to undermine legitimate trade.” He feels, Trump may do nothing and let Congress create the crisis. But that too, will be difficult. “Ultimately the international community will blame the US in this scenario, whether it was Trump or Congress that violated the deal.”

So what can Trump do?

The NIAC president points out that a more likely scenario for the Trump administration will be to try and provoke Iran and cause it to violate or walk away from the deal. “That way Trump would get what he wants—no deal—without paying the cost for scuttling it,” says Parsi.

Much of the worry that the Trump presidency would adopt a more belligerent approach towards Iran stems from not only his remarks during the campaign but from the composition of the core members in his national security team. The appointment of three former generals in key posts --- Mike Flynn as national security advisor, James Mattis as secretary of defense and John Kelly as secretary of homeland security--- all known Iran-baiters have deepened such fears. In addition, the selection of Mike Pompeo, the House Representative from Kansas and a key member of the Tea Party of the Republicans as the new CIA chief, is a lethal mix that can provoke a serious confrontation with Teheran.

Parsi also agrees with this assessment. “West Asia is already in turmoil and if the US scuttles the deal, tensions between the US and Iran will rise once more and they will return to a path that gravitates towards conflict.” He adds, “That’s the last thing the region needs right now.”

A possible confrontation with Iran has wider ramification. It could further destabilizes a region already under severe churn in wake of the Syrian conflict and the ongoing fight against Islamic State in Iraq as well as the war in Yemen. Growing hostilities between the US and Iran could also affect a number of countries in the region and beyond.

In such a scenario the implications for India would also be quiet severe. The region is not only one of the main sources of India’s energy needs; it also has over seven million Indians living and working there. Moreover, growing Indo-Iranian ties also has implications for the future stability of Afghanistan, where the two sides have been working on Chabahar port project for freer access into Afghanistan and the central Asian region. Fresh sanctions on Iran or an attempt to re-open the nuclear deal would also seriously affect the cooperation between India and Iran on a number of other areas, particularly Afghanistan.

“The Obama administration was well aware of the implications of our cooperation with Iran and its positive impact on Afghanistan,” a senior South Block diplomat pointed out. “We hope as the Trump administration settles down, it too would show better understanding on this crucial area,” he added.

But some observers blame the Obama administration for having a job ‘have done’ in dealing with Iran. “The nuclear agreement was only a small part of this. The main idea was to restore Iran’s legitimate position in West Asia and allow it to join the international mainstream,” says former Indian diplomat Talmiz Ahmad. “Unfortunately, with growing resistance within his own country both from the Republicans and also from his own Democratic Party, Obama lost the nerve to bring it to its logical conclusion,” says Ahmad.

But if there are questions on the nuclear deal’s future it could also have an adverse effect on Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his government. A new presidential election in Iran is due in May this year and the possibility of the deal being renegotiated or fresh sanctions on Iran by the US could only strengthen the Iranian hardliners into the political mainstream in Teheran.

Opinion polls conducted within Iran indicate a growing sense of dissatisfaction among people over the benefits of the nuclear deal. Though the Iranian economy has improved somewhat in wake of the deal, many other areas, especially improvement in Teheran’s relations with Washington and between Iran and its Sunni neighbours have not shown any positive developments. The Iranian society also continues to be dominated by conservatives and there are also indication that Rouhani might not be approved by the powerful clergy to stand for a second term. Sanctions could also bring back the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a powerful player dominating the country’s economy and political structure. If that happens, it could only heighten tension between Iran and the US and might even lead to an armed confrontation throwing the entire region to further turmoil.

There are sections in Iran, however, who feel that despite his electoral rhetoric Trump would finally settle down and adopt a more pragmatic policy in dealing with Teheran since he also knows that in the fight against the IS he needs to have Iran’s support and full participation. Additionally, improved bilateral relations between the US and Iran could also open opportunities for American business and investment in Iran—a fact that a businessman like Trump might not ignore outright.

But while one could only hope for the best outcome and expect the realist in Trump to take control of his foreign policy, especially in deciding America’s future policy with Iran. Under a maverick and unpredictable person like Donald Trump as the US’s commander-in-chief, the possibility of an armed confrontation with a country like Iran could never be too far off the agenda.