National

Saffron Incursion

The Jayalalitha-BJP dalliance poses a challenge

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Saffron Incursion
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TAMIL NADU is going to witness a direct contest between the DMK-TMC combine and the AIADMK-led front. While the former includes traditional allies like the CPI, Indian National League, Forward Bloc as well as the new entrant CPI(M), the AIADMK front will have the MDMK, the rebel Congress led by Vazhapadi K. Ramamurthy, Subramanian Swamy’s Janata Party and the BJP. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), which has a sizeable Vanniyar following in seven northern districts, has also joined the Front. All this, of course, means that the Congress, which had already become a rump of a party, is now in ruins in Tamil Nadu.

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Most significant of the alliances has been the one between the AIADMK and the BJP. Jayalalitha’s entire calculation is related to anticipated post-election developments. The AIADMK had to choose between the Congress and the BJP. In Jayalalitha’s view, the BJP has a better chance of coming to power at the Centre.

According to sources in the party, Jayalalitha set three conditions before striking the deal with the BJP. She wanted all cases against her either withdrawn or closed; a ministerial berth for the AIADMK irrespective of the number of seats won and a commitment that the DMK government should be dismissed within six months of the new government coming to power. The BJP high command seems to have accepted all the three conditions in principle.

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Though it is still early to predict the immediate gains for the BJP in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK is looking to improve on its 1996 disaster, which means it has to start from scratch—the party did not win a single seat and had a vote share of 7.84 per cent. The DMK and the TMC were on a winning spree, cornering 25.63 and 27 per cent of the votes respectively. The BJP’s vote share was a mere 2.93 per cent.

Whatever the misgivings about Jayalalitha, the AIADMK may wrest a few seats, particularly in upper middle class urban pockets. By tying up with the BJP, the AIADMK has finally shed its Dravidian cloak and may lose its voters in rural Tamil Nadu. The BJP, on its part, seems to have compromised on its election plank that it will fight corruption by tying up with Jayalalitha, against whom three cases of graft have been registered.

M. Karunanidhi and G.K. Moopanar (who stuck to his alliance after some thought) are clearly under pressure. Outdistancing the AIADMK alone will not do. Any reduction in the number of seats won last time will undermine the status of their parties. And for the DMK-TMC combine and its allies to win all 39 seats is a tall order.

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