National

Heads It's Us, Tails It's Us

The UF and the Congress know they have to share a platform once again to keep the BJP out. But both are lobbying for maximum advantage.

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Heads It's Us, Tails It's Us
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BY the eve of counting itself, United and Left Front leaders were coyly admitting they would have to get into bed with the Congress all over again if they wanted to keep the BJP out. CPI(M) general secretary Harkishen Singh Surjeet, negotiator extraordinaire,was on the move, meeting Congress and UF leaders in an effort to hammer out an early understanding. Because time, all the leaders acknowledged, was of the essence.

The UF positioned itself for maximum bargaining power. Even as the Congress and the BJP began wooing UF constituents, the Front sent a clear signal to the Congress by winding up the Jain Commission: the party would have to climb down on the DMK issue if it hoped for a post-electoral coalition with the UF to keep the BJP out of power. The effort to sink the DMK-Congress differences—which sunk the UF government—is exemplified by the TMC's stand that the designated court's judgement in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case virtually exonerated the DMK.

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A Congress-DMK entente and astute "political management (read deal-making)," hoped some UF leaders, would re-install a UF government in New Delhi. Others, however, felt the UF would do better to give a letter to the President promising support to a "secular" government.

The million-rupee question of which bloc would lead the proposed UF-Congress coalition may not be answered by numerical strength alone. From the UF standpoint, the most desirable option would be a coalition government headed by a non-Congress prime minister, thus ensuring stability. A senior JD leader rather optimistically maintained that the Congress would have little option but to accept a prime minister from the UF: "The regional parties will never allow a Congress prime minister. If they hold out the threat of joining the BJP, the Congress will fall in line in double-quick time". The two parties most vulnerable to the BJP are the TDP and the AGP, neither of which is inclined to accept a Congress prime minister. A united UF was the best chance of foiling the BJP's bid for power, said a senior CPI leader. If the Congress insisted on foisting a prime minister on the UF, it might well break up, with some constituents even joining the BJP.

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The UF's four prime ministerial candidates are the CPI(M)'s Jyoti Basu, the Tamil Maanila Congress' G.K. Moopanar, the Samajwadi Party's Mulayam Singh Yadav and the present incumbent, Inder Kumar Gujral. Basu's own party is reluctant to approve his candidature—assuming that it chooses to join the government in the first place. As for the other three, in terms of sheer numerical backing, a UF leader from the south admitted, Moopanar stood the best chance. While all three leaders might be acceptable to the Congress, Mulayam (who has the backing of the Left) and Gujral do not command support from the entire UF.

But a Congress-led coalition appears more likely. While the Left Front, or at least the CPI(M), may not join a Congress-led government, it could willy-nilly lend outside support or play the role of a "constructive opposition". In West Bengal, the Congress and the Left were driven closer together by the combined threat of the BJP and Trinamul Congress. Reports from Kerala indicate that the state CPI(M) is opposed to joining a Congress-led government but could well support a UF-led coalition. A dual policy of aligning with the Congress at the Centre and opposing it in the states will not be digestible to the Left cadres. Despite this, as political observer Charubrata Ray points out, "The Congress may well try and form a ministry with support from the UF.

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The Left may fall in with this grouping—and it will certainly extort a price for it." That raises the question of a Congress prime minister acceptable to the UF in general and the Left Front in particular. Arjun Singh, who is on excellent terms with West Bengal chief minister Jyoti Basu, held two meetings with Surjeet on February 27 and 28 in an effort to canvass support. He also met the Bahujan Samaj Party's Kanshi Ram and spoke with Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Laloo Prasad Yadav and Janata Dal chief Sharad Yadav. The Left tends towards the Congress leader not only because his views on economic policy are in consonance with their own, but because of his impeccable secular credentials. Mulayam Singh, too, has a good equation with him. But the DMK is unlikely to accept the Madhya Pradesh stalwart.

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"The shrill protest against the DMK was raised by Arjun Singh and his flunkies. Arjun Singh's primary supporters in Tamil Nadu were Vazhapadi Ramamurthy and Rangarajan Kumaramangalam both of whom have virtually become BJP...this has been brought to the notice of Sonia and she has understood the petty politics behind the slander campaign against the DMK. Hence, we do not expect any problem from 10, Janpath with reference to the DMK playing a significant role in the post-election scene," observed a former TMC minister, clarifying that the DMK is willing to absolve Sonia of ill-will, but not Arjun Singh.

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As for the cleanest face in the Congress, Manmohan Singh, the Left has sharp differences with him over economic policy: the dilution of the state's role in the free market system, the dismantling of the public sector, the entry of multinationals on their own terms. As for Madhavrao Scindia, his "maharaja" image does not gel with the Left. And resurgent Maharashtra strongman Sharad Pawar, who has been lobbying strongly within his own party and trying to build bridges with 10, Janpath (reportedly through Delhi-based industrialist Lalit Suri), has no takers in the UF, barring Mulayam perhaps.

In the event of the UF breaking up, Mulayam Singh is likely to go with the Congress. So is the TMC. If the Congress continues its mellowed stance on the Jain Commission report, the DMK may well follow suit. The Left and perhaps the TDP, the JD and the AGP might opt for tactical opposition unless the BJP manages to wean the regional parties and part of the JD away. While the AGP is not a significant player, chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta—battered by the LOC scam, dissension within his party and the ULFA ban which kept the AGP's constituents at home—will want some assurance of protection against his government being dismissed by the Centre. The TDP's Chandrababu Naidu is keeping an eye on assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh which are just a year away—he has to keep the Congress in check while not allowing the BJP to gain ground.

In a reverse twist, UF spin doctors were talking to the BJP's allies—the Akali Dal, the Samata Party, Lok Shakti and the Trinamul Congress. For instance, a senior Janata Dal leader from Karnataka has been trying to negotiate the return of Laloo and Ramakrishna Hegde to the UF fold. "There are already serious differences between the Samata and Trinamul," pointed out CPI general secretary D Raja. President K.R. Narayanan should take the inherent instability of the pre-electoral BJP coalition into account before deciding to invite someone to form a government, as a post-electoral UF-Congress arrangement might just prove more stable.

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