Opinion

Bull's Eye

Pak authorities persistently allege that Baitullah Mehsud masterminded Benazir's assassination. The US concurs. Mehsud denies. What gives?

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Bull's Eye
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The insurgency inside Pakistan is riddled with Byzantine intrigue. The Pakistan army puts out a lot of disinformation. No view by any government on events in Pakistan merits trust. Pakistan authorities persistently allege that Baitullah Mehsud masterminded Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. The US concurs. Scotland Yard has confirmed the Pakistan government’s version of Benazir dying from a head collision rather than a bullet. It remains vague about who actually organised the murder. Two alleged killers ‘confessed’ to assassinating Benazir to avenge the Lal Masjid operation. But Musharraf ordered that operation, not her. Did Scotland Yard accept this confession?

Mehsud denied he killed Benazir. Why should a militant hesitate to acknowledge a successful assassination? Before advancing conjectures, divisions within Pakistan’s warring groups deserve attention. Mehsud leads a breakaway outfit from Mullah Omar’s Taliban. Omar criticised Mehsud for fighting Musharraf’s army instead of targeting only American forces. Evidently, Omar sympathises with the Pakistan government and with China: it may be recalled that with Osama’s blessing, he signed an agreement with China’s People’s Liberation Army in 2001.

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Mehsud’s brother, on the other hand, was responsible for killing Chinese engineers stationed in Pakistan. The Lal Masjid clerics who kidnapped Chinese women in Islamabad and provoked the Pakistan army’s crackdown owed allegiance to Mehsud and the Al Qaeda deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Informed analysts believe that Zawahiri has deviated from Osama’s line. Reportedly the two do not see eye to eye. Also, reports say Osama’s health may be declining.

Thus, while Mullah Omar favours the status quo in Pakistan, Mehsud is trying to overthrow the regime. Is he fighting for Pashtun separation? Only time can tell whether eventually Mehsud, Kabul’s Karzai government, and even Wali Khan’s National Awami League (NAL), would consolidate if the insurgency escalates to civil war. Afrasiabh Khattak, a senior NAL leader, has claimed that parts of NWFP had to return to Afghanistan when the 100-year old Durand Line Treaty lapsed in 1993.

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In this overall situation, America and China tend to view each other suspiciously in Pakistan. The militants themselves are badly divided. The future is unpredictable if the fighting, as expected, escalates after spring. Pakistan should prepare for a long, burning summer!

(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)

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