Making poll forecasts is a hazardous exercise best left to psephologists. Speculating on post-poll politics is even dicier. And yet, the critical phase of transition through which India is passing makes forethought imperative. Can the coming poll prove to be a turning point in India’s transition? Circumstances suggest it can, but not in the manner that most politicians hope.
Four factors suggest that post-poll India could be poised for a paradigm shift. First, this election will likely have the heaviest turnout, with the largest youth percentage. This spells unprecedented voter involvement. The election itself is being fought on trivia bereft of real national issues. After elections high public expectations could plunge to acute frustration.
Second, some recent events suggest the distinct possibility of the Congress tally not exceeding a hundred. If that happens will the Dynasty survive as its centre of power? If it does not, will the Congress survive without the dynasty as its rallying point? For six decades and even earlier the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty has held the Congress in its palm. This created a mindset and a debilitating culture that has over the years afflicted the entire political class. If the Dynasty ceases to call the shots the Congress to survive will have to reinvent itself. Mr Rahul Gandhi reportedly is thinking on the lines of reviving the party as a single national force through work at the grassroots. That is a very long haul that would make the Congress of little relevance to the current challenges facing the nation. For the immediatefuture, the demise of the Congress would profoundly affect political attitudes in all parties.
Third, by present indications post-poll India might well get its most fractured Parliament. That could spell weak governance, confused direction and instability. Even if the NDA succeeds in getting the highest tally, the several self-goals shot by the BJP make Mr LK Advani’s choice as next PM exceedingly doubtful. The party’s endorsement of Mr Varun Gandhi might have helped consolidate the hold on its traditional vote bank. It might also have fatally isolated it from all potential allies required to form a coalition government. The allies might demand a price, and the Prime Minister’s chair could be it.