Fear Of Elections 2009
Who Moved My Constituency?
No one expected this change in the political map but it's come to pass. Parties and politicians are in a tizzy, furiously reworking strategy.
A.R. Antulay
Party: Congress
Constituency: Kulaba (Maharashtra)
Status: Constituency no longer exists
Somnath Chatterjee
Party: CPI(M)
Constituency: Bolpur (West Bengal)
Status: Reserved SC constituency
Jaipal ReddyParty: Congress
Constituency: Miryalguda (Andhra Pradesh)
Status: Constituency no longer exists
Kapil Sibal
Party: Congress
Constituency: Chandni Chowk (Delhi)
Status: Constituency virtually redrawn
Laloo Prasad Yadav
Party: RJD
Constituency: Chhapra (Bihar)
Status: Constituency no longer exists
S.S. Vaghela
Party: Congress
Constituency: Kapadvanj (Gujarat)
Status: Constituency no longer exists
Shivraj Patil
Party: Congress
Constituency: Latur (Maharashtra)
Status: Reserved SC constituency
Dharmendra
Party: BJP
Constituency: Bikaner (Rajasthan)
Status: Reserved SC constituency
Kalyan Singh
Party: BJP
Constituency: Bulandshahr (UP)
Status: Reserved SC constituency
Sachin Pilot
Party: Congress
Constituency: Dausa (Rajasthan)
Status: Reserved ST constituency
Gurudas Dasgupta
Party: CPI
Constituency: Panskura (West Bengal)
Status: Constituency no longer exists
Suresh Prabhu
Party: Shiv Sena
Constituency: Rajapur (Maharashtra)
Status: Constituency no longer exists
Sukhbir Singh Badal
Party: Akali Dal
Constituency: Faridkot (Punjab)
Status: Reserved SC constituency
Jitin Prasada
Party: Congress
Constituency: Shajahanpur (UP)
Status: Reserved SC constituency
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cattered across the table in BJP election coordination convenor Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi's office are white plastic folders. Each contains election statistics of the various states, constituency-wise. Each page has two columns, one showing how the BJP fared in the last elections, the other listing extrapolated figures for the newly drawn constituency. Given that the assembly constituencies (the building blocks of each parliamentary constituency) too have changed, the exercise is proving to be a statistical nightmare.A harassed-looking Naqvi says this is just a work in progress. "All state units," he says, "have been asked to send in as much information as possible so that a clearer picture can emerge and we can draw up our election strategy, both for the state assemblies in which elections are due later this year as well as for the general elections scheduled for 2009." By the time the President notifies the delimitation of the parliamentary and assembly constituencies and the final maps are made available, the BJP hopes 90 per cent of its work will be done.
By sharp contrast, this sense of urgency seems to be missing in the Congress. Ask key party functionaries and you are told they "understand" the state units are working on the subject. Here, individual MPs—like Jitin Prasada, the MP from Uttar Pradesh's Shahjahanpur—who will lose their constituencies because they will be reserved are looking at the newly drawn constituencies to see if there are any alternative seats where they stand a chance. In preparation for 2009, Jitin has had his posters pasted in all the constituencies neighbouring Shahjahanpur to acquaint voters there with his face!
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We the people: Urban ratio will rise |
Indeed, for political parties—especially the ones with longer electoral histories—and politicians who will lose pocketboroughs, not to mention psephologists and political analysts, the redrawing of constituency borders may seem like a bad dream. Smaller and newer parties will benefit, say MPs. Bigger political parties can only tackle anti-incumbency better by changing unpopular legislators on grounds that their constituencies have changed.
For the people of India, though, delimitation will usher in a more equitable representation. It will not just reflect the changing demography and mirror the aspirations of the increasing numbers of those joining the urban population (from 19 per cent in 1971 to 28 per cent in 2001), it will also secure for migrating/displaced populations a say in their new homes.
Indeed, the general elections in 2009 will see the biggest churning since 1947, with approximately half the 543 Lok Sabha seats in the country about to be virtually recreated as a result of the redrawing of constituency boundaries by the Delimitation Commission. There will be approximately 170 new seats—some of them denoted by a new name; additionally, over 40 general seats will now become reserved for scs/sts, while an equal number will go into the general pool. India's political geography is on the brink of the most dramatic change since Independence.
What makes these changes so revolutionary? Till 1972, delimitation—an exercise that ensured that the population of each constituency remained approximately equal—used to take place every decade, coinciding with a fresh census. This time, the exercise comes after 35 years. This when the rate of population growth for even a decade averages above 20 per cent.
Why this long gap? The key factor, says Congress general secretary Kishore Chandra Deo, was that the southern states—with a better record of population control—discovered that if this principle was followed across the country, their political representation would decrease. It was then decided that the exercise be postponed till the population increase stabilised across the country. The total number of seats was subsequently frozen at 543 till the 2001 census. But by 2002, it was realised that even as the population of the northern states continued to grow at a faster rate than in the south, huge anomalies were being created. For instance, while the Chandni Chowk Lok Sabha constituency was just four lakh strong, Outer Delhi's population was a whopping 38 lakh.
Hence it was decided that while the total number of seats in the state would remain unchanged, constituencies within would be redrawn. The Delimitation Commission also laid down that all constituencies would be roughly equal in each state; and that the number of SC/ST constituencies would reflect any change in their population. For administrative convenience, a decision was also taken to confine the new constituencies to one district as far as possible.
Elections 2009 will no doubt see many national leaders who have lost their traditional seats seeking fresh pastures. But how will delimitation affect the electorate? First, the ratio of urban to rural constituencies will increase. If in the current Lok Sabha, there are approximately 74 urban seats, the next house will see the figure going up to roughly 109, according to Dr Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for Development Studies. "Greater attention will have to be paid to urban voters and their concerns, especially since their turnout is less than that of rural voters," says Kumar. "Campaigns may become more hi-tech. The approach of political parties will start shifting from the rural to the urban." On whether it would benefit the BJP, Kumar is not that sure. "While our surveys so far show the BJP generally has more support in the urban areas," he says, "this needs to be tested."
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o, where have the seats increased? Barring Calcutta—which has shrunk in size and will lose one LS seat—and Mumbai, which has lost seven assembly segments to Mumbai suburban that has gained nine assembly segments, cities across the country will get more legislative and LS seats. Bangalore gains one Lok Sabha seat, while cities like Chennai, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Lucknow, Patna and Dehradun have all gained an extra seat or two. Satellite towns such as Thane, Pune, Nagpur, Ludhiana, Amritsar, Coimbatore and Ghaziabad have also gained significantly. Thane, for instance, has added 11 extra assembly seats to its share.In fact, in the Mumbai-Thane region, increased urbanisation plus migration of "north Indians" has ensured that in approximately 49 assembly seats and 10 LS seats, the outsider vote will be crucial. This perhaps explains why the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena/Shiv Sena are whipping up hatred against outsiders to consolidate the "Marathi manoos" vote. Simultaneously, the importance of the Maratha vote across Maharashtra will diminish, points out an ias officer.
In Calcutta, the reduction of LS seats from three to two will affect the CPI(M)'s bete noire, Trinamul Congress's Mamata Banerji, who represents Calcutta South. The semi-urban belt attached to Calcutta South will now be replaced by the Muslim-dominated areas of Central Calcutta, making the seat tougher for Mamata, something she has been complaining about bitterly.
If urbanisation/migration to the metro suburbs will make an electoral impact, so will the increase in SC/ST seats. The concerns of the sc /st lobby—especially those relating to issues such as reservation—will now be better reflected. In the current Lok Sabha, there are 79 SC and 41 ST seats; this will increase to at least 84 SC and 46 ST seats.
Interestingly, while ST seats have increased on the whole, they have dipped in two "tribal" states. In Jharkhand, LS seats for STs were to go down by two or one, and assembly seats from 28 to 22; in Chhattisgarh, the number of assembly seats has gone down from 34 to 29. In Jharkhand, the Union cabinet has agreed to stay the current recommendations (as also in the four northeastern states of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Nagaland) following violent protests from tribal organisations and political parties in the state. Indeed, Union parliamentary affairs minister Priyaranjan Das Munshi said, "In Jharkhand, the tribal population has decreased because of the large number of outsiders. If we convert a reserved seat to the general category on that basis, we'll have very serious trouble on our hands."
But if the delimitation process has been stayed in Jharkhand, in Chhattisgarh, Congress leader Ajit Jogi is still leading a protest against the reduction of tribal seats—even the BJP's tribal mlas appear to have accepted Jogi's 'leadership' on this issue. A senior BJP leader said, "...(this has) become a politically volatile issue and it will have a serious impact in the state which is going to the polls in November this year." Incidentally, Maoist violence in these two tribal states has also caused the exodus of the tribals.
Till the Delimitation Commission completed its work last year, no one believed it would be ready for 2009. But the changes are here. And parties have little time to come to terms with the updated political geography of a brave new India.
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