Vows And Arrows

In his home constituency of Raghogarh where his ancestors have ruled for the last 400 years, the Congress chief minister lets go his fusillades. "This election is as much a referendum on my government as Vajpayee's," says a revived and smiling Digvijay. He assiduously paints a bleak picture of spiralling oil and vegetable prices and then gloats about his reign—"electricity is free, gram swaraj has been attained and panchayats strengthened". As for the corruption and inefficiency of the Congress, Digvijay would rather "let the others deliberate on them." Not that Digvijay would deny charges of corruption. Seven ministers of his cabinet were denied tickets due to various allegations ranging from land-grabbing to graft—four of them have been booked by the Lokayukta and face serious charges.

A third of the sitting MLAs could not find favour with the party after an exhaustive survey of 157 constituencies carried out by a journalist, S.P. Tripathi, confirmed that the party needed new faces.

While there are rebels galore in the Congress, Digvijay is not unduly alarmed, because his advisors tell him that a similar predicament grips the BJP. Party observer Narendra Modi's list of candidates was overruled by party president Kushabhau Thakre, leading to a not-so-silent rebellion in its ranks.

But then, the BJP has many sticks to beat the Congress with. Says former chief minister and party veteran Sunderlal Patwa: "The debt burden which stood at less than Rs 5,000 crore in 1993 has increased to Rs 20,000 crore in five years." And though Digvijay boasts about the "free power", the BJP points at the incredible shortfall in the power sector. In 1993, Digvijay inherited a surplus situation with the state ranking second on the national list; now, it's pegged at number 17 with not an extra megawatt of power added to the state's overall capacity in five years.

Economics apart, the BJP can rap the Congress for the deteriorating law and order situation in the state—the Multai firing that claimed 17 farmers early this year and the recent rape of four nuns in Jhabua stand out. The state has the largest number of rape cases and atrocities on tribals. An issue which has already caused a running feud between governor Bhai Mahavir and Digvijay.

But these aspects do not particularly perturb Digvijay, who has left no stone unturned to woo the rural sector. "I am going to the people with the firm resolve to transfer as much power to them as possible. Ideally, I would like decentralisation and more democracy," he says. The cornerstone of his five-year rule has been Panchayati raj, which he introduced mid-way through his regime. Now, he proposes to give the voter the right to recall an elected representative once in five years if his/her performance is not up to the mark.

The BJP, which was a clear winner barely three months ago, seems to have lost some of its steam. The enthusiasm of Vajpayee's 'bari' has waned to the extent that he does not even appear on the cover of the party manifesto.

Then, the BJP's pre-election preparation also got off on the wrong foot with senior leaders wrangling over the chief minister's post. While Sonia more or less gave Digvijay a free hand, the BJP high command dithered over the issue. The leader of the Opposition in the outgoing assembly, Vikram Verma, was seen as the logical successor, but veteran war horses Patwa and Kailash Joshi would not let go. So, the BJP has not been able to project a potential chief minister, unlike in Rajast-han and Delhi. The infighting in the party was evident during last year's organ-isational elections which could not be completed because no one could agree on who should be the state president.

But a bigger problem looms ahead. Immediately after Patwa's campaign speech, stormy petrel Uma Bharati, who heads one of the strong pro-Mandal groupings, jumped into the fray. The Union minister has been openly heading the anti Patwa-Thakre combine and nurtures chief ministerial ambitions. If the BJP wins, party sources say she may actually press her claim, only to make way for either Kailash Joshi, Vikram Verma or even Babulal Gaur, a veteran Yadav leader, who is also regarded as a strong Mandal votary. There are 65 OBC candidates in the BJP list this time.

With factionalism and the price spiral, the BJP may have just missed its chance of cashing in on the anti-incumbency factor. The trouble with the BJP is that it may be repeating the mistakes of 1993 when it went to the polls thinking it was all over for the Congress. After the loss, Patwa's wings had to be clipped and S.S. Bhandari was sent to restore order.

This time around, there at least two dozen rebel BJP candidates in the fray led by former chief minister Virendra Saklecha whose ouster has been something of a mystery. "He was not considered for a ticket and I am not saying why. It's an internal matter," says Thakre. The Congress may have edged out the BJP as far as the selection of the right candidates is concerned. Digvijay's emphasis has been on brushing the dirt under the carpet, projecting young and fresh faces, signalling to the electorate that parasites have been weeded out. Still, there are plenty of old faces—as well as sons and daughters—in the Congress, but it is the BJP which finds it difficult to explain why it has as many as 15 candidates from political families, including two from Vajpayee's. Uma Bharati's brother, who was charged with dacoity—the case was lodged when Patwa was CM—also finds place.

The issue of a separate Chattisgarh, however, may be the ace up BJP's sleeve. So far it has handled the issue well, timing it with the elections. The decisive battles are fought there and anyone who emerges with a majority is likely to sweep to power in MP as well. The Congress has traditionally bagged at least 50 of the 90 seats in the region with the BJP scoring only once in 1990.

While MP has been a two-party state for very long, minor players like the BSP and Janata Dal may make a difference in case of a hung assembly. Congress has made a "strategic poll understanding" with the BSP, fielding "weak" candidates in 120 constituencies, a favour the BSP has returned for the other 200 seats. The BSP, JD and Independents may bring in at least 20 seats, which may indeed prove decisive. If that happens, Digvijay may still be the only man smiling at the end of it all.