THE United Front's worst nightmare seems to be coming true. With Sitaram Kesri taking over as the leader of the Congress Parliamentary Party (CPP) on January 3, the 111-year-old party is showing distinct signs of arresting the drift of the Narasimha Rao era and eventually making a bid for power.
Officially, United Front leaders maintain that there is no danger to the Deve Gowda Government. Sources, however, admit that the present Government is no longer a safe bet for a couple of years. Pessimists in the Front, including some senior Janata Dal leaders, feel that the end could come within the next six months. Others give the United Front regime till the end of the year.
But despite the doomsayers, Gowda is unlikely to give up without a fight. And the Prime Minister and those active on his behalf, including C.M. Ibrahim, Ram Vilas Pas-wan and Srikant Jena, are working on the premise that the Congress will withdraw support only if it can form the government. "Congress MPs are not willing to face an election in the near future," they say.
The first thing that Gowda is likely to do is cease paying frequent calls on Narasimha Rao, which, according to Front insiders, is "a needless provocation". Efforts are also being made to build bridges with Kesri. But what has brought a whiff of cheer to the Gowda camp is the appointment of Sharad Pawar as the leader of the Congress in the Lok Sabha.
According to a United Front source, "whatever the deal Pawar and Kesri may have struck, when it comes to prime ministership, I am not so sure that Pawar will be willing to play second fiddle to Kesri. Especially as he can be deputy prime minister even in a United Front Government. Then there is the Sonia factor which will sooner or later bar his rise to the top of the Congress hierarchy".
Wishful thinking or not, the fact remains that the Congress needs another 125 MPs to form a government. And they can come only from the United Front. For the Front managers, the TMC, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Laloo Prasad Yadav and disgruntled Janata Dal leaders such as Biju Patnaik are the dangerous ones.
But it is the TMC which is crucial. For one, a merger of the TMC into its parent party will make the Congress the single largest party in Parliament. So, Gowda is doing his bit. The proposed economic reforms announced on January 1 should keep the pro-reform TMC happy. And the Government order making it necessary for the CBI to take permission from the Finance Ministry before proceeding against the general managers of nationalised banks is being seen as a placatory move, given that the TMC is very sore over the investigation into the Indian Bank scam.
Also, the United Front assessment is that TMC chief G.K. Moopanar is unlikely to want to rock the boat till his party is the only opposition to the DMK in Tamil Nadu. And the Gowda camp is not yet willing to completely write off Jayalalitha and the AIADMK.
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