Treading On Thin Ice

THE Congress may have prevented an Uttar Pradesh-style BJP coup in Gujarat after Dilip Parikh replaced Shankersinh Vaghela as chief minister on October 28, but political uncertainty persists in the state. Parikh, who heads a 16-member Rashtriya Janata Party ministry supported by the Congress, will have to conjure up all his survival skills to face a looming BJP threat. He also has to contend with two lines of control—Vaghela, who will definitely want to have a say in matters of governance, as well as the Congress, which has insisted on a coordination committee, giving the party a say in all major decisions.

Right now, for Parikh's minority government, the Congress, which can pull the rug any moment, is the biggest challenge. A large number of the party's 44 MLAs, led by former chief minister Chhabildas Mehta, are demanding a share in power. After all, the RJP which has 46 MLAs is not much bigger than the Congress, is the argument. Then, there are those who are not happy with ministerial positions alone. They want a UP-type of arrangement—after a Congress-backed RJP government completes a year in office they are insisting on a similar term in office supported by the RJP.

Says Amarsinh Chaudhari, leader of the Congress legislature party: "They (Congress MLAs) expressed the feeling that we should share power. If the high command agrees some of our friends may join government." Statements from Delhi that the idea of participating in power is still open, has added to the uncertainty.

The incumbent chief minister is also plagued by the question of numbers. Even though Parikh has the support of 103 MLAs—46 RJP, 44 Congress and 13 of the 15 Independents—in a 182-member house, his position is shaky. A manifestation of this is the fact that three of the Independents have been made ministers of state. But that has not stemmed discontent.

Even from within the RJP, where Atmaram Patel made a strong bid to replace Vaghela, there are rumblings of discontent. "An overwhelming majority in the party supports Parikh. There is no question of backing the leadership struggle of anyone else," says Vishnu Pandya, the RJP's national coordinator. But the BJP which has been demanding elections since it was pushed out of office a year ago is already talking of the feelers it has been receiving from RJP MLAs who want "a stable government", and naturally, a position for themselves in it. A split in the RJP ranks would allow the 76-member BJP to form a government with ease.

Given the uncertainty, even RJP loyalists are not placing bets on how long the government will last. After all the Congress found itself a face-saving device with a new man at the head of what is mostly the old team, and not a long-term solution. "They did not want the leadership of Vaghela. He was winning over the Dalits, OBCs and minorities. He was solving the unemployment problem. They felt their base would go completely if he continued in the state," says a key supporter of the former chief minister. Vaghela ignored the BJP's middle-class base and was carving a constituency for himself among the backwards and minorities, farmers and poor—all traditionally Congress homing grounds. He also took important decisions without consulting the Congress or taking into account the health of the state exchequer.

"We took tough decisions. The kind of decisions that even a majority government was not able to do," says former minister Vipul Chaudhari. Those are the kind of decisions that made the Congress decide to withdraw support. On the face of it they have achieved much of what they wanted—no Vaghela, no election, no BJP. But then again not much. Parikh is the former chief minister's right hand man, or as the joke in Gujarat goes, Vaghela's Rabri Devi. "Even Rabri has shown she can take independent decisions," says Amarsinh Chaudhari.

But what the Congress is really pinning its hopes on is Parikh's lack of Vaghela's manipulative skills and political experience. And without any political base to speak of, Parikh, who was the industries minister in Vaghela's cabinet, belongs to the numerically small Bania community. Parikh is also unlikely to build up his own image across the state when he has hardly made his presence felt in Dhanduka, the constituency which sent him to the legislative assembly. As Parikh tries to prove his majority on the floor of the House, the question really is how long his government will survive, and the compromises it may have to make on the way.