The Vote's The Real Story

Whatever the criticism levelled by the hardline Hurriyat Conference about the fairness of the elections in Jammu and Kashmir, the consensus in Srinagar at the end of the second round of polling on September 24 was that the elections were neither rigged nor the voter turnout fabricated as in the 1996 elections. In the Valley's Srinagar and Badgam districts, which went to the polls in the second phase of the elections in the state, Kashmiris were clearly free to vote or not to. Those who wished to exercise their franchise did so and those who did not stayed at home. There was no concerted effort on the part of the security forces to herd people to the polling booths.

As in the first phase, the pattern of voting showed a higher voter response in rural areas. Both in urban Srinagar and the Jammu city constituencies, the turnout was below expectations. According to deputy election commissioner Sayan Chatterjee, the pre-poll militant attacks acted as a dampener and kept many voters away. While Srinagar saw a mere 2 to 3 per cent turnout, in Jammu East, Jammu West and Jammu Cantonment, 45, 44 and 49 per cent turnout was recorded, respectively. But this moderate response was compensated by high polling in the rural constituencies which recorded voting of 65 per cent and above.

At the end of the day, the mean Election Commission (EC) figure for Srinagar, Badgam and Jammu was 42 per cent. The overall voter response in Jammu was predictably high (58 per cent) with the Chhamb constituency recording the highest turnout (70 per cent). Srinagar saw very poor voting. In the eight assembly constituencies of Srinagar city, the turnout reflected the pro-azadi sentiment. But unlike 1996, there was next to no allegation of coercion. In fact, a group boycotting the polls in downtown Srinagar was seen seeking the help of the bsf to chase away a group of women who they alleged did not belong to the constituency and were trying to vote at an otherwise empty polling station in their area.

Old Srinagar, which has five assembly constituencies and has traditionally been associated with the separatist movement, saw an equally poor voter turnout. Khanyar, Habba Kadal, Idgah, Batmaloo, Sonawar and Zadibal registered between 1 and 6 per cent voting.

Outside Srinagar, there was a definite sense of participation. In sharp contrast to the pattern observed in the city constituencies where people responded to the boycott call of the Hurriyat Conference, the Ganderbal and Kangan areas of Srinagar district and Badgam witnessed moderate to brisk polling. Many tribal Gujjar women came out wearing colourful dresses and lined up outside the polling stations in Kangan constituency. They said they were voting for Mian Altaf Ahmad, the local Gujjar leader fighting elections there on the National Conference (NC) ticket. The rural segments of Ganderbal and Kangan recorded between 40 and 50 per cent voting while Badgam district registered a 51 per cent turnout.

However, in some constituencies where voters turned up in numbers, many said they were voting for a change of government. Others spoke of the need to end the dynastic rule of the Abdullahs. Anti-NC sentiments were visible even in Ganderbal, Farooq Abdullah's political base. A traditional NC stronghold, the party has fielded its chief ministerial candidate and Farooq's son Omar here.

Though the Abdullahs are confident of winning in Ganderbal, there is an anti-incumbency wave working against the NC. The common charge is that Farooq, who has been representing the constituency for nearly two decades, has ignored Ganderbal. Says Ghulam Rasool, a local resident, "The NC government has not done justice. Many people here are hoping for a change." But young voters still seem to have faith in Omar and say they have voted for him.

The NC has pinned all its hopes on the 47 seats in the Valley since it does not hope to make any substantial gains in the Jammu region. There, the bjp is battling dissent within its own ranks and could lose seats, which may help the Congress.

In the Valley, anti-poll sentiment was discernible even in the known strongholds of the ruling party. A group of residents playing carroms outside Mujahid Manzil—the erstwhile headquarters of the NC—openly told reporters that they were not voting since they were for azadi. In 1996, they would have been picked up for making such remarks. According to an EC official, the very fact that dissenters and those boycotting the polls were allowed to voice their views was proof that there was no coercion this time.

Moderate turnout was also recorded in Chadura and Chrar-e-Sharief in Badgam district. Enthusiastic voters in Chadura started queuing before the polling stations from 7 am. As many as 96 votes of the 1,008 were cast at a polling booth in Wathura within one-and-a-half hours of voting. This is rather unusual for Kashmir, which records zero turnout in the first few hours of voting. "We have come of our own to exercise our fundamental right," chorused a group of women voters while waiting for their turn to vote. Women seemed more enthusiastic than their male counterparts.

People who came out in hordes to vote in rural belts, particularly in the border towns and villages in Jammu, said they were voting for a change of government. Some said they wanted to vote out the NC and replace it with a more people-friendly government. "We voted this time for the permanent rehabilitation of all people living on the border to a safer place free from Pakistani shelling and firing. This can be done as it has been done for the border villages in Punjab. We believe that a new government will be helpful," said Mohammed Aslam, a Gujjar of Kotli Gakrial.

But one can't really predict election results in Jammu and Kashmir going by the statements made by voters outside polling stations. More often than not, people do not wish to reveal to the media which candidate they support. Going by the claims made by NC leaders, their party will in all certainty form the next government. But there are many who believe it may not exactly be a cakewalk.