The Splinters Within

THE alarm bells have begun to ring at the Shiv Sena headquarters at Dadar. The downward slide of the Shiv Sena is a fact that even party leaders have begun taking serious cognizance of. Revolt is not all too often seen in a monolithic party like the Sena. But when Suresh Navle, the Sena minister of state for energy, made the startling allegation on the floor of the Vidhan Sabha that there was a complete breakdown of law and order in the alliance-ruled state, he took the treasury benches by surprise. Navle’s broadside against his own government came following threats made by "around 250 Sena goons" who barged into his bungalow situated just a stone’s throw away from the government’s seat of power.

Navle paid for being so forthcoming by quitting from the ministry although chief minister Manohar Joshi would have it that he had been sacked. But the Navle incident has wreaked its damage. The Maratha lobby in the party, which Navle represents, is visibly upset and is now talking of the Marathas being meted step-motherly treatment by the Sena’s upper-caste Mumbai lobby which includes Joshi. Indeed, 17 of the Sena’s 20 Maratha MLAs sympathetic to Navle were even willing to cross over to the Congress. What really saved the Sena government was that the Congress was not too keen to topple the government, what with assembly elections due next year.

Nevertheless, for the Congress-led opposition, thirsting for some action, Navle’s outpourings in the monsoon session of the legislature, was heaven-sent. It overshadowed its inherent weaknesses, its expected ditherings over discussions on the 1992-93 riot report of the Srikrishna Commission and presented it with a weapon—now being described in political circles as the Maratha Factor—to jab at the Sena which is known for its violent ways.

Even as Joshi summarily "sacked" Navle, presumably on charges of cross-voting in the Rajya Sabha polls, the Maratha leader clearly stated in his resignation letter that he had been a victim of casteism. And as the die was cast, with the seemingly apparent falling fortunes of the ruling Shiv Sena and its chief minister hinging around it, Navle’s grievance was echoed in the rumblings of other Mara-tha leaders. Namely former Sena ministers Shashikant Sutar and Gulabrao Gawande.

Alleging that he too was the recipient of several threatening calls, Gawande thundered: "The ministerial representation of the Marathas in the government is limited to two leaders—this when the Marathas were responsible for electing the Sena to power. These recent incidents only confirm what we have been feeling for a long time. Now that the Sena’s jaativaad (caste-based) racket has been exposed, there is no point in staying on in a party that does not give its Maratha members any respect. And if the cross-voting allegations against the Marathas continue, we will join forces."

But the Sena’s troubles are not restricted to Navle and the Maratha factor alone. It has come on the heels of the political ascendancy of underworld don Arun Gawli earlier and more recently of former Sena minister Ganesh Naik, the highhandedness and dynastic preoccupations of the Thackerays, the Brahmanical bias of Manohar Joshi, the Sena’s thrashing at the Lok Sabha and the Navi Mumbai mayoral elections, the cross-voting during the Rajya Sabha poll, the growing casteism in the party, and the increased crime rate in Mumbai. Add to this the emergence of Smita Patil, wife of Thackeray’s estranged son Jaidev, as a much resented power centre and the Raj Thackeray-Uddhav Thackeray factors and the picture that emerges is not exactly encouraging.

 Even more alarming is Thackeray’s loosening grip on the party. Even die-hard supporters of the Sena have concern writ large over their faces. When a meeting of Sena MLAs was convened on July 19 at a suburban five-star, less than 50 of the party’s 76 MLAs turned up. "That the rest were not present at a conference summoned and addressed by Balasaheb himself says a lot, doesn’t it?" notes a senior Sena functionary. To strike home the point, a few days later a chunk of Sena legislators stayed away from a meeting addressed by their CM.

THE Sena is battling a crisis fermented within its own ranks. The ongoing Joshi-Thackeray power struggle has numbered the CM’s days. Among those believed to be in the reckoning as replacement for Joshi are Narayanrao Rane, a Thackeray loyalist and a Maratha. The Sena chief and his daughter-in-law Smita favour Rane; but Uddhav is opposed to any change at the moment since he believes that it will send the wrong signals to partymen.

Asserts Uddhav: "There is no crisis in the Sena and Joshi will continue as CM. As for the Maratha issue, there is no question of anyone being sidelined. Most of our MLAs are from Marathawada and Vidarbha. The party has done more work in the region than the Congress have in 50 years. The Congress is just trying to create a rift and we will not let them get away with it." Congressmen, incidentally, have been making veiled statements of having already harvested 17 ruling party MLAs.

Which is why Uddhav’s confidence is not reflected by other Sena leaders who point out that an operation has been launched within the party to check revolt. The main focus of the Sena’s worry is Ganesh Naik, till recently the party’s Man Friday in Raigad and Thane districts and now a rallying point for the Sena’s disgruntled dropouts.

Naik, while holding on to his Sena membership, has floated a "social organisation" called Shiv Shakti and is rapidly widening his base. In addition to this, two Thane district Sena MLAs have allegedly been offered incentives to quit the Sena. Significantly, on Friday deputy chief minister Gopinath Munde, who also holds the home portfolio, told the legislative council that Naik had received a death threat.

The retaliatory stance of Naik and Navle has ruffled the top ranks in the Sena-BJP alliance. The latter is embarrassed about the repercussions the goings-on in Maharashtra will have on its national image. Says Congress leader Madhukar Pichad: "There is a lot of discontent among them. Even the Sena-BJP alliance will bifurcate because, all said and done, the BJP does not approve of the law and order machinery being abused."

So despite Munde’s detached observation that the Sena’s threats to its minister are purely "an internal matter and not a law and order problem at all" and that "it will not affect the alliance or the functioning of the government", the fact is that the ramifications of a caste-engineered split could change the prospects of the BJP in the state.

Even as senior BJP leaders surreptitiously hanker for an OBC/Maratha CM, alternative arrangements are being mooted with an eye on the next polls. Notes Kumar Ketkar, editor, Maharashtra Times: "During the BJP camp at Karnal last month, it was discussed that if the party does not have adequate OBC representation, it stands no chance in the next election. The second rung of the BJP is peopled by OBCs and the following of the Sena is OBC. Together they can foster a new electoral arithmetic."

As the crisis in the Sena continues to be on the boil, the leadership has pressed into service firefighters Uddhav and Raj Thackeray. But their efforts have met with limited success. So much so that political pundits foresee a split in the Sena. With disgruntled forces within the Sena seeking new alignments and the Congress and BJP only waiting to cash in, the Sena’s future looks shaky.

Which begs the big question: can Bal Thackeray, who is back in action after a self-imposed exile, manage to set his house in order? Daunting as the task may seem, Sena workers still believe he can.