The Modified Mood Swing

Perhaps Narendra Modi can protect us from terrorism," Ramjibhai shrugs as he brews tea at his stall in Wagdam, north Gujarat. Across the street are the election offices of the BJP and the Congress. Wagdam is still fresh from Modi's gaurav yatra the previous day. "Narendrabhai is a tough man," Ramjibhai concedes, but adds for good measure, "What protection? Godhra and Akshardham happened under his rule. It is all politics, nothing else." Wagdam voted the Congress in the last three elections.

Cut to Gandhinagar, a BJP seat, where Modi pauses before cheering crowds and dares Mian Musharraf to send "rented goons to Akshardham". His is a rhetoric that would do any Bollywood scriptwriter proud. "Don't give me votes in the name of Godhra. But friends, don't tell me to forget Godhra. I have heard the cries of women and children. Friends, don't tell me to forget Godhra..."

But, after Modi finishes his speech, there is no dearth of sceptics in the audience. Kashmira Chauhan is one of them. Says she, "He (Modi) has no business forgetting Godhra. He should remember it forever. It was his government which was caught napping. He should not forget Akshardham either, there too he was caught napping."

It's a sentiment Nilay Joshi, a sales engineer in a local company, echoes 250 km away at Rajkot. "He has nothing else to offer but Godhra and Mian Musharraf. It is all so irritating, the way he has been parroting it," is his sharp reaction. Nilay was a Modi fan till a few months ago. "But not any more, for I see the politics in his rhetoric." Nilay and Kashmira's are not lone voices, many others in Gujarat share the same view.

Conflicting feedback is now emerging about the effectiveness of the BJP's Hindutva experiment in Gujarat. But the party doggedly forges ahead under its kingsize mascot called Narendra Modi. "Hindutva and the personality of Narendra Modi will superimpose on all other factors," predicts party veteran Sooryakant Acharya. The BJP now has little else but Modi and his verbal semantics to fight an electoral battle which it says will decide the country's future political agenda. This is perhaps why Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's no-Godhra appeal seems so completely incomprehensible to the state unit. It had all along perceived Godhra as its trump card. It's also the reason why Modi does not want senior central BJP leaders, who may ignore Godhra, to campaign in the state.

But will the Hindutva card deliver for Modi? Yes, going by the response to Modi's gaurav yatra. But step into the actual heat and dust of the political arena and you may find that Modi's brand of Hindutva, quite unlike the original, is suffering from an overkill.

The problem is, it has not weaned away die-hard Modi fans. They lap up every word he utters with fanatic enthusiasm. During his gaurav yatra in Kheda district in central Gujarat last week, crowds cheered, waved and jostled to take a closer look at the chief minister. He is indeed very popular.

But how much this translates into real votes remains to be seen. Despite the response, local BJP leaders do not give the party more than seven seats out of the 13 in Kheda. But they have no choice but to go with the Hindutva card and Modi's personal equity. His dramatic speeches, Bollywoodian gestures and histrionic ability to choke with emotion at will has left crowds impressed. In Khambhat town in central Gujarat, Modi had tears in his eyes as he said he couldn't forget Godhra. It held his audience in a trance. His aides tell you Modi is so popular that he does not need deputy PM L.K. Advani, Vajpayee or film stars to campaign for him.

The VHP, of course, is pitching in too. While Praveen Togadia has been busy organising 'dharmasabhas' across the state, the activists of the parishad and the Bajrang Dal have been distributing pamphlets in support of ModiEverything is done publicly and openly. For instance, in Kheda district, activists put up makeshift stalls to distribute pamphlets and Godhra T-shirts with the message "We will not allow our village to become another Godhra" inscribed on them.

In urban centres, especially those that witnessed violence, such propaganda has had some impact. Not so in the villages. Says Mukesh Vyas, local journalist and a former government employee in Rajkot, "People in Saurashtra have far too many problems to bother about this pseudo-Hindutva. We want water, we want electricity. There are no jobs, our traditional industries are in the doldrums, while the prices of virtually everything seems to be going up."

For, the Saurashtra region is the Uttar Pradesh of Gujarat. It has the highest representation in the state assembly but still is economically backward. The region has always been subject to natural disasters and is perennially drought-prone. This is why its people are pragmatic enough to see through politicians. Explains Narandas Thakkar, executive editor of Jai Hind newspaper, "Our people have always suffered and those who have suffered have quite a different perspective of the murky world of politics."

BJP sources in Saurashtra confide to Outlook the party's apprehension that the Congress could make a huge dent in the region. "As things stand today, we might well lose some 20-odd seats out of our 52. There is a strong anti-incumbency factor against many individual candidates who were ministers in the outgoing assembly. Then, issues like water and the power crisis, besides price rise, are significant factors," admits a BJP leader in Rajkot.

In other words, all the issues responsible for the BJP losing many local body elections—including the one in its bastion, Rajkot—in the last two years before Godhra are still haunting the party. BJP spokesman for Saurashtra, Raju Dhruv, blames it on the media "which," he says, "avoids mentioning our development work. Now, we are trying to convince the people that we have done considerable work on roads, the railway network and water supply".

Another critical factor is the caste politics in Saurashtra. But here, the Congress has fielded Patels and backward class candidates. "This may divide the Patels, said to be committed BJP voters. Besides, there is a strong feeling of being wronged due to Keshubhai's unceremonious ouster," says Thakkar. Dhruv disagrees: "Keshubhai is very much campaigning for the party and the Patels will never go with a party whose leader is a Kshatriya (Shankersinh Vaghela)."

Keshubhai, interestingly, speaks only about development issues and highlights the work initiated during his chief ministership. He, however, also plays it very safe and refrains from criticising Modi. "Our development work as well as Hindutva are working and we will win," he says. Party sources say Keshubhai realises that if he does not campaign, it might be construed as a deliberate move to sabotage the chances of both Modi and the BJP.

Like in Saurashtra, many in the BJP and the Congress believe that the latter may put up a good showing in north Gujarat, another BJP stronghold, where it won 28 of the 32 seats last time. Step into the remote tribal village of Bhadramar-Kunvarsi in north Gujarat, where Madhusudan Mistry of the Congress is campaigning, and you find people identifying only with the Congress here. "The tribals here don't know any party other than the Congress since they have been traditionally voting for it," says Mistry. "But we must consolidate every vote, every village. And it is necessary that we tell them what we have done and what we can do for them. There is no Hindutva wave here. Religion doesn't work on an empty stomach."

While water, power, unemployment and poverty are issues here, also significant is the huge presence of Muslims.And the community seems determined to vote in full strength against the BJP. This could militate even against the liberal-minded BJP candidates who have nurtured their constituencies. The Congress expects to reap major gains here and Mistry, an MP from north Gujarat, estimates "not less than 15 to 20 seats". Even if you take that as an exaggeration, the Congress may drastically improve upon its previous performance of four seats.

But there are many in the BJP, like Dhruv, who discount such projections. "All these factors will be dwarfed by the charisma of Narendrabhai and the Hindutva wave. You can't go by ordinary yardsticks while predicting this election. People have realised that if they wish to be safe from terrorism, they need Narendrabhai and the BJP." Carrying forward this BJP line, vernacular newspapers are full of half-page advertisements of the burning train and the attacks on the Akshardham temple and Parliament. "The Congress says remove Modi, BJP says remove terrorism," the ads scream out.

The Congress too has been releasing advertisements. But its focus is on the economy and development issues. The price rise, the BJP's failure to supply uninterrupted power to farmers, water shortage and unemployment are what the Congress highlights. "Today's main candidate is roji-roti (livelihood)," goes the party punchline.

At another level, though, the Congress is challenging the BJP's "tall claim" of rooting out terrorism. "Look who is talking of removing terrorism! Godhra, Akshardham and the Parliament attack happened under the BJP government in Gujarat and at the Centre. Their party's foreign minister had gone to Kandahar to drop terrorists. It was the BJP which invited Musharraf to Agra," is the Vaghelaspeak.

Be that as it may, the Congress campaign is not as visibly aggressive as the BJP's. "The Congress campaign managers are working at two levels. We hold public meetings as also small mohalla get-togethers. We are not into theatrics, so you may feel our campaign is not strong," says Mistry. Several Congress CMs are also campaigning in Gujarat.

Sonia Gandhi's rallies in Gujarat too have drawn huge crowds. Hitting the BJP where it hurts, she was applauded in Vadodara when she said, "Attempts have been made to destroy the soul of Gujarat and its rich cultural tradition. Venom is being spread among people in the name of religion and culture by those people who don't know the meaning of religion. The BJP government has caused severe hurt to the entire Gujarati samaj." Sonia touched upon various issues, including the cooperative bank scams affecting lakhs of depositors, the power supply, water shortage, crimes against women, and said, "Not a single section of the society is happy in Gujarat." She even predicted that the Congress would form the next government at the Centre.

In contrast, Advani's speeches during his public meetings were sharply lacklustre. As was the crowd response. His speech in Saurashtra reiterated the Modi line. Advani too spoke about the "elements out to tarnish the name of Gujarat and of the country's most popular chief minister, Narendra Modi".

If the Congress expects to do well in the Saurashtra and north Gujarat regions, which together have 90 seats, it might lose a few in Kheda, the Panchmahals and Vadodara districts in central Gujarat. These districts are actually Congress strongholds and 50 per cent of the party's total seats in the last elections came from here. Significantly, these districts bore the brunt of the communal violence and the BJP believes it might benefit from the polarisation.

The level to which Hindu votes have been consolidated will determine the outcome of the Gujarat elections. But no one is clear how much Modi's aggressive brand of Hindutva will be appreciated by an electorate which feels that the BJP government has not provided them good governance.If people vote on performance, then the Congress has every reason to be optimistic. If not, Modi will rule again.