The Maratha Wars

Pawar’s Powerplay

• Pitch for the prime minister’s post if a Third Front government comes to power in 2014
• Work in tandem with the Congress in Maharashtra despite differences to keep a hold on state politics
• Cut nephew Ajit Pawar’s growing clout
• Strengthen daughter Supriya Sule’s role in Maharashtra politics
• Maintain good relations with all parties, from the Left to the Right

***

Inevitably, the backlash happened. Veteran Shiv Sena leader and former Maharashtra CM Manohar Joshi was booed off the stage at the party’s first Dussehra rally at Shi­vaji Park after Bal Thackeray’s death. Front-row Sainiks shouted slogans against him until he finally left the dais. And no leader, Uddhav Thackeray or anyone else, tried to pacify the crowd. Joshi was facing the ire of the Sainiks for an ill-timed, strongly wor­ded comment he had made on Udd­h­av’s leadership skills. In time-honoured Maratha guerrilla style, he has since retired to his Konkan house.

For someone who’s served the Sena for 40 years, been one of Balasaheb’s closest aides and has family business ties with the voluble party renegade Raj Thack­eray, could the pending memorial to the late leader be such an emotional issue? Was the booing of the Sainiks just a spontaneous outburst? No, and no again.

It boils down to two issues, brewing for awhile now—whether to give a Lok Sabha ticket in 2014 for 75-year-old Joshi (vis-a-vis a growing demand to prop up a young leader like Rahul Shewale), which is being played out in the context of new bossman Uddhav’s need to establish supre­macy in the Sena. “This has been going on for many days now,” says Suhas Palshikar, a pro­fessor at the University of Pune. “One is the Lok Sabha ticket and, two, who is the leader. Uddhav is targeting control of the party first and then expansion. His major challenge is other senior leaders and Raj Thackeray’s MNS.”

Shiv Sena spokesperson Rahul Narve­kar calls it spontaneous: “It was the cad­re’s sentiments, an indication of their hurt feelings. The message is clear...that there are many senior leaders but there is only one leader at the top and that is Uddhavji.” But political watchers feel it doesn’t show Uddhav in a good light at all. “There should have been a better way to handle this. Pacify/tackle/warn/take act­ion...but to organise this kind of protest doesn’t speak too well of the leadership,” says Girish Kuber, Loksatta managing editor. “It gives the message that Uddhav feels he has to assert his supremacy.” Apart from Joshi, other senior leaders like Neelam Gorhe and Ramdas Kadam too have cooled off ties with Uddhav, say sources.

Joshi, who lost from Sena stronghold Dadar in the last elections, is still angling for a ticket. But the wave is in favour of young leaders; everyone wants to woo the young voter. To make matters worse, on the morning after the Dussehra rally there came news that four leaders from the Shiv Sena had cut loose, switched to Raj’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, and amidst much fanfare. If reports are to be believed, there could be more ‘transfers’. There’s been no reaction from Uddhav Thackeray about any of this till now.

The defections are a serious matter considering that whatever weakens the Sena automatically strengthens the MNS. And whatever weakens the Sena-BJP alliance ultimately benefits the Congress-NCP. That said, the Congress-NCP alliance in the state has no dearth of demons to fight. In the last one year, the 15-year-old alliance has had more spats than agreements, and all in full public view. If September was marked by Congress vice-president Rahul Gan­dhi’s exhortations that partymen work towards an NCP-free election, the latter’s cadre has added fuel to the fire demanding restoration of the seat-sha­ring formula of 2009.

Pawar with Gadkari. (Photograph by Fotocorp, From Outlook 28 October 2013)

 If that wasn’t enough, within a week, NCP chief Sharad Pawar displayed the one trait for which he’s best known now: political ambiguity. First came the conciliatory tone for his sparring alliance partner: “There is no conflict bet­ween us and the Congress,” Pawar told the media, after a review meeting with his partymen in Mumbai. Quick on the heels of that declaration came a photo-op with former BJP president Nitin Gadkari, with the statement: “In politics, there are no untouchables.”

Pawar watchers in Maharashtra show no surprise at all, saying it confirms their image of a leader “who likes to keep all his options open”. A senior NCP leader told Outlook, “It’s vintage Sharad Pawar. Saheb has always had friends in all political parties, from the Left to the Right. That’s the way he does politics.” Clearly, the man is positioning himself for 2014. For Pawar, 2014 is not just about a Lok Sabha poll that may afford him a last chance at fulfilling an old ambition of prime ministership—it’s also a nervy battle to tighten his grip on Maharashtra and the NCP, a party he founded in 1999, after being expelled from the Congress for disputing Sonia Gandhi’s right as a foreigner to lead the party.

Perhaps why he’s been urging partymen in Maharashtra, busy as they are pursuing a bitter battle with the Congress over seat-sharing, to sink differences and work towards a joint campaign for the Lok Sabha and assembly polls. The crafty Maratha leader knows the alliance with the Congress has to go on, despite the many irritants, if the NCP hopes to have some hold on Maharashtra politics. For the NCP, hurting the Congress in Maha­rashtra would also mean hurting itself. And in the long run, that dent may mean Pawar himself losing the reins of the NCP.

For Pawar, trouble in Maharashtra stems from two levels. While the Con­g­­ress and its openly critical CM Pri­th­viraj Chavan have kept Pawar and the NCP on their feet, the rising aggression of his nephew Ajit Pawar can no longer be ignored as an inspired, occasional rebellion of a truant young ’un. Sources in the NCP confirm that differences bet­ween the uncle and nephew have come to such a pass that the party itself is now divided into two factions: the Sharad faction and the Ajit faction.

Perhaps why Pawar Sr has quietly been pushing the case of daughter Supriya Sule in Maharashtra politics. For some time now, Supriya has been quietly touring the state looking after the activities of the NCP outfit, Yuwati Rastrawadi (which was established primarily to lend her political clout and counter cousin Ajit). Not just that, to help Supriya build her profile,  Sharad Pawar has also passed on the baton of the NCP think-tank, Yash­wa­ntrao Chavan Pratishthan, making her its president for whatever it’s worth.

But enough of the Maharashtra story. If those close to Pawar are to be believed, there is more on the Maratha leader’s mind than just state politics. “Saheb has an old association with the BJP’s (Nitin) Gadkari, given that the latter is a rival of Gopinath Munde, who’s always been anti-Pawar. His recent stage-sharing with Gadkari cannot be seen as a simple goodwill gesture,” says a source. The ups­hot: many in Maharashtra believe Pawar is once again having prime ministerial dreams. As things stand, if 2014 was to deliver a fractured verdict leading to a Third Front government, then it would require a regional satrap to emerge as a consensus PM candidate. Pawar is aiming to be that candidate. Sources also confirm that the Maratha leader is in a bit of a desperate situation, given his failing health and the growing clout of nephew Ajit. It is with this in mind that Pawar is also making sure that even as he is critical of Rahul over the ordinance issue, he doe­sn’t miss an opportunity to express confidence in Sonia’s leadership. 

The strategy, NCP insiders explain, is simple. Pawar wants to ensure that he has the support of both the Congress and the BJP in case 2014 throws up a Third Front government supported from the outside either by the Congress or the BJP. While he hopes to lean on Sonia Gandhi for this outside support, Pawar would depend on good friend Gadkari to get him the BJP and the RSS support in this scenario. For some time now, the Maratha strongman has been preparing the  ground for this scenario. Even as he battles odds both at the state and the central level, somewhere in between, his party, the NCP is struggling to find its own feet. With little hope of sparkling individually in 2014, their best bet may be to dig in their heels in their chosen home ground.

By Prarthna Gahilote and Prachi Pinglay-Plumber in Mumbai