The Hammer Bangs Down

The Left will take up the following issues

• Question the role of the Election Commission in the West Bengal polls in Parliament
• Vote against the Insurance Bill
• Say no to hike in fuel prices
• Oppose privatisation of Chennai and Calcutta airports and seek a greater role for the Airports Authority of India
• Push the UPA to follow an independent foreign policy, not one dictated by the US
• Ensure the proper implementation of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act with an assurance that minimum daily wages be honoured

The government can breathe easy because

• The Left will not pull the plug on the government
• It is examining FDI in retail. The comrades are not opposed to it tooth and nail.
• They are okay with FDI and FII, provided it is kept out of key sectors like insurance

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Assembly Elections 2006: Assam,WestBengal, TamilNadu, Pondicherry,Kerala

t was red almost all the way on May 11 as election results poured in from the five states of West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam andPondicherry-and the Lok Sabha constituency of Rae Bareli. It was a sea of red asthe Left parties swept West Bengal and Kerala, and the colour dominated the streets of Tamil Nadu too where theDMK's red and black flags fluttered again in triumph. That was not all: the red gulal on the faces of the Gandhi children, Rahul and Priyanka, riding through the streets of Rae Bareli, told its own story.

But far from the electoral battlegrounds, in Delhi, as the message of the UPA's victories sank in (the Congress won Pondicherry while a party-led government seemed set to retain Assam), the euphoria was mixed with concern over the future. For theUPA, it should have been a moment to savour, and then celebrate. Especially as the results came in just 11 days before its second anniversary in power at the Centre.

Instead, it became a moment to introspect, and not because there is any danger of the Left pulling out of theUPA or any realignment of political forces, for that will have to wait till closer to the next general elections. There is a growing realisation in the Congress that it is not merely that the Left will now have even greater authority to intervene in governmentpolicy- CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat was already saying that "the wins have only strengthened the role of the Left in nationalpolitics"-it is also that much of what they have to say has resonance with the voters.

For it has not gone unnoticed that the Left, which has been critical of the Manmohan Singhgovernment's economic and foreign policies, have won West Bengal for a record-breaking seventh consecutive time, despite a hawk-eyed Election Commission cracking down on theCPI(M)'s "scientific rigging" code. They have also overcome a division in the ranks to wrest Kerala from the Congress-ledUDF.

In Tamil Nadu, everyone including the DMK-led front was playing the pro-people card. The writing was on thewall- even the reforms-friendly Union finance minister P. Chidambaram stunned all beholders with uncharacteristically populist promises. The story was the same in Rae Bareli whereSonia-who has come to symbolise the UPA's social equity agenda even if she's no longer chairperson of the National AdvisoryCouncil- won by a record margin of 4,17,000 votes, despite low polling.

Predictably, the stockmarket- by which the reforms-friendly UPA government sets so muchstore- dipped by 177 points.

So, though a beaming Manmohan told the press, "It's a victory for the secular forces,it's a victory for theUPA", many of his party colleagues read the results differently. For a majority of Congress MPs, the message was: "Pay more attention to the social equity agenda or perish; go down the reforms path of India Shining, but at your own peril."

Indeed, in Congress circles-both in the party and in the government- there has been considerable churning in recent weeks on the growing anti-people image of theUPA. Union HRD minister Arjun Singh, not the most popular man in the Congress, has now the grudging admiration of many colleagues for his stand on minorities,OBC reservation and Narmada refugees. Sonia's letter to the PM on April 12 on free trade agreements further reinforced the need for a corrective: "The Congress feels that instead of opening up the agricultural and manufacturing sectors throughFTAs, more effective domestic policy measures need to be adopted to protect and strengthen the growers and manufacturers in these sectors. We need to face the reality and recognise that the debt crisis still exists, leading to suicides (by distressed farmers) even today." This letter, incidentally, has won the approbation of several ministers that Outlook spoke to.

Taking the lead, in Maharashtra last week- after consultation with the Congress inDelhi- the Congress-NCP regime restored reservations for SCs, STs and OBCs in vocational courses of private educational institutions in the state. Commenting on this, a central minister said,"That's the way to go, instead of waiting for the Union government to legislate on reservation, the states should just go ahead."

If the UPA's indifference to issues affecting farmers, tribals, Muslims andOBCs did not hurt the decision-making middle-class (the constituency of the reforms lobby), the hike in prices of foodgrains and the Union petroleumministry's desire to drastically hike the prices of petrol, diesel and cooking gas is now getting a little too close for comfort.

Given this mood, it was little wonder that within hours of the trends becoming clear, 25 Congress MPs led by ex-Chhattisgarh CM Ajit Jogi took the plunge. Congratulating Sonia, they wrote to her saying it was time she took over the reins of government, and her son, Rahul, those of the party. Six youngMPs- Jitin Prasada, Madhu Goud, Milind Deora, Deepender Hooda and SandeepDikshit- added their bit, making a public plea for Rahul to be made general secretary. The Jogi letter read:"It's our firm belief that the mandate given by the people of Rae Bareli is a categorical assertion of the hopes and aspirations of the entire nation that you now directly and immediately assume the Burden and Glory of the Government of India."

Later, sources among the MPs who signed the letter said, "Dr Manmohan Singh is a good man but we need a political prime minister." Their complaint is that the PM is "more comfortable with business delegations than he is with his partyMPs" - his usual excuse, these MPs say, being that he has nothing to do with politics. But as they point out, economics is inextricably linked with politics. The only MPs whom he does meet are those from the Left, they add, and that is because his government hinges on their support. "What do we tell our constituents?" is their refrain.

So despite the usual element of sycophancy in the request to Sonia to become PM-and she dismissed the idea when she addressed the press later in the day, though she did sayshe'd consider Rahul for an organisational post- it was reflective of the growing concern in the party that it is heading for an electoral disaster.

As a Congress minister told Outlook, "Today, we have growth without equity. We are perceived as anti-tribal because of the line we took on rehabilitation in the Narmada case. We are perceived as anti-farmer because though wheat production remains constant, we are importing low grade wheat at a high price to feed ourPDS, while good quality Indian wheat is being sold to multi-nationals. We are perceived asanti-OBC because of our ambivalence on reservation for them; we are even perceived as anti-Muslim...look at the Muslim voting patterns in Assam and Kerala."

Meanwhile, for the Left parties, with decisive victories in West Bengal and Kerala and increased voteshare in Tamil Nadu, the going is as good as it gets. As Karat, smiling broadly, put it, "Expect increased intervention by the Left." The intervention, though, will clearly stop at total withdrawal. But the party will continue to object to:

• Privatisation of Calcutta, Chennai airports, next in line to go under the hammer after Mumbai and Delhi. This is unless the modernisation of the Calcutta airport is done under the aegis of the Airports Authority of India

• FDI in retail to prevent a monopoly-like situation by the entry of MNCs like Walmart

• The UPA's pro-US tilt. In the latest issue of The Marxist, Karat writes, "...the UPA government has taken major steps to convert India into a strategic ally of the United States of America. This is the meaning of the strategic partnership which has been forged between the two countries".

The Left also intends to initiate a debate with other political parties on the functioning of the EC without, as Karat put it, detracting from its independence and integrity. The victorious Left, still smarting from the treatment meted out to it, has served a calling attention notice in Parliament, seeking a debate on theEC's role. Karat said, "This election has, once and for all, exploded the pernicious propaganda that theCPI(M) and the Left Front win elections by scientific rigging, given the fact that the extraordinary measures taken by the EC were hailed by the Opposition."

Of course, the Left will have to deal with the implications of the victory in WestBengal - whether it should be read as a referendum on CM Buddhadeb Bhattacharya's liberal, pro-capital and industry-friendly policies. Asked a question on this, Karat retorted, "It is the party which has won and not any particular individual." To a question on reforms in Calcutta, his riposte was, "What reforms?"

But even as the debate in the Left on how much to reform- poll statistics show that Buddhadeb has won the party new urban voters inCalcutta- in theUPA, the tussle continues. When Outlook asked a central minister whether there was a real difference in the worldviews of the PM and the Congress president, the cautious reply was: "Well, Soniaji is certainly more concerned about how government policy will affect our election prospects, that the aam aadmi image the party succeeded in projecting in 2004 should not be tarnished. The PM, on the other hand, thinks that if the economy continues to grow, its benefits will eventually trickle down."

Interestingly, Chidambaram, one part of the reforms triumvirate- along with the PM and the PlanningCommission's Montek Singh Ahluwalia- and a special target of the Left, was quick to pick up the message. He told a TV channel: "I believe theUPA and the Left will continue to work together. (The questions we need to ask are)...Do we have growth? Do we have equity?" So far, so good, but then he added, "The Congress will not be timid in victory." Figure that out.

by Smita Gupta and Anuradha Raman