The Gauntlet’s Shadow Across The Line

Revenge is a dish best served cold. The government seems to be acting on this adage as it works out an effective strat­egy to deal with terror attacks and “put Pakistan in its place” following the attack on the army brigade headquarters along the LoC in Uri.

By all accounts it appears that India may not go for the “jaw for a tooth” app­roach as senior BJP leader Ram Madhav had advocated. Top sources in the country’s security establishment told Outlook that a rush-of-blood response was ruled out. “That is not going to work with Pakistan. Time has come for a cold-blooded, calibrated response,” a senior government official said.

In fact, Pakistan see­med to be provoking ­India as it opened fire in the same region along the LoC in Uri, less than two days after the attack. More infiltration bids were foiled by the Indian forces as they took on the terrorists, killing 10 of them, in at least two more encounters, losing one soldier in the process. “It is almost as if they want us to escalate the level of tensions. They want to project Kashmir as the flashpoint between the two countries. We are not taking the bait. We will retaliate at a time and place, and in a method of our choosing,” says an intelligence operative.

Government sources claimed that ratcheting up the tensions was a tempting proposition, especially with the general mood veering towards a swift retribution. “The government is facing jibes for its seeming inaction, with unfavourable comparisons to the previous UPA government.  Crucial ­ass­embly elections are around-the-corner. Other political parties are bound to rake it up against us but we have to tread with extreme caution,” a Union cabinet minister said.

He, however, did not rule out the possibility of further escalation of temperatures between the two countries but said that as much as possible, India wanted it to be a controlled escalation, retaining the deniability quotient.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi met his senior cabinet colleagues Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley and Manohar Parrikar more than once after the attacks to discuss the options before the government. National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval, Army Chief General Dalbir Singh and other senior security and intelligence officials were also part of the meetings.

This time, there were no grand announcements like the launch of Op Parakram following the Parliament attack in 2001, but the government has put more boots on the ground to strengthen the borders and prevent infiltration. Intelligence efforts have been redoubled to identify the Pakistan army posts that helped in infi­ltration. “Once that is done, we can probably think of pinpointed attacks, either aerial or by the special forces,” said an official.

On the diplomatic front, India had already reached out to the P-5 countries—US, UK, France, Russia, China—and other influential nations in a bid to isolate Pakistan as a hub of terrorism. External affairs minister Sushma Swaraj was in touch with her counterparts to build support against Pakistan. She was also scheduled to aggressively raise the issue at the ongoing United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) session in her speech on September 26. The imm­ediate diplomatic objective was to get as many countries as possible to label Pakistan a terror state, including other South Asian countries.

In addition, the government had also started an exercise to draw up possible economic measures that could be used to squeeze Pakistan. While all these efforts could continue, former RAW chief A.S. Dulat, who was an advisor to then prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, was of the view that the engagement between the two countries must continue. “There is no alt­ernative to talking. Somewhere along the way we have stopped talking to each other. Even if some channel of communication is open, which I doubt, it does not seem to be enough,” he told Outlook, adding that the CIA and the KGB never stopped talking even at the height of the cold war, saving the world from a catastrophe.

He suggested that the best option was if the NSAs of both countries could meet and talk. “By all accounts, I believe they have a good chemistry. They should meet and none should know,” he said, stressing on the need to keep it quiet. Talking about Vajpayee’s PMO, he said that a channel of talks was open between the two countries even after the Parliament attack.

“Brajesh Mishra was in touch with Gene­ral Musharraf’s aide Tariq Aziz (who later became Pakistan NSA) and even I, despite being in the PMO, had no inkling of it. This was the extent of secrecy that was maintained. I only got to know that the channels were working after Vajpayee decided to attend the SAARC summit in Islamabad in January 2004,” said the former spy. Dulat was of the view that even the option of surgical strikes would be easier if India had better relations with Pakistan with state actors allowing strategic action against non-state actors, much like Myanmar.

He also believed that the ongoing protests in Kashmir and the Uri attack could be related. “The way forward is also to deal with the Kashmir situation urgently. It is providing a breeding ground for both state and non-state ­actors from Pakistan.”

Short-Term Rsponse Aggressive

• Increase patrolling and scale of fire at the LoC

• More troops to be pushed in but not on the same scale as Op Parakram that was launched following the 2001 ­attack on the Parliament

• Strengthen the defensive system to prevent infiltration at the LoC

• Enhance the perimeter security of the armed forces camps so that they cannot be easily breached like Uri, and Pathankot earlier

Mid-Term Response Watchful

• Strengthen covert capabilities in Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan to exert pressure on the Pakistan military brass in Rawalpindi

• Gather pinpoint intelligence on terror camps and leaders so that a ­targeted attack can be launched with little ­collateral damage

• Focus on restoring semblance of ­normalcy in Kashmir, control street ­violence and target the ranks and ­leadership of jihadis

Long-Term Response Lethal

• Strengthen intelligence and ­operational capabilities of the ­security forces in order to improve their strike capacity and also the ­ability to handle the backlash

• Modernise India’s military to ­enhance its ability to carry out ­precision operations when required

• Increase funding for police ­modernisation, ensure that funds are utilised and cut red-tape in ­purchase of latest weapons and gadgets