The meeting itself was a mere formality. The decision to hold elections had been taken by Rao before he left for his foreign tour. Even the amendments to be made in the Jammu and Kashmir Representation of the People Act had been carefully gone into. But Rao was still worried: National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah had still not categorically stated whether his party would participate in the polls.
Abdullah, who had been insisting on the restoration of the pre-1953 status, had met the Prime Minister just before he left for the tour, and had said that he could not go back to the people unless at least a categorical assurance of autonomy was given. "I cannot go back empty-handed," had been Abdullah’s refrain.
The Prime Minister had a telephonic conversation with Abdullah on November 4, and finally decided to provide him with a face-saving statement. The statement, specially recorded in Burkina Faso, was even telecast on Doordarshan. "From a long distance away from home, I am addressing an appeal through this statement to the people of Jammu and Kashmir, at a time which could well turn their destiny once again in glorious manner, so as to make that lovely land a peer to paradise—jannatnishaan, as it has been called for centuries," Rao said.
What followed must have surprised the most avid Kashmir watchers. Rao had not only endorsed the provision of the 1975 Sheikh Abdullah-Indira Gandhi accord, allowing the state government to review and ask for the repeal of all laws made between 1953 and 1975, but even said the Centre had no objection to the use of the title of wazir-e-azam for the chief minister, and sadr-e-riasat for the governor if an elected state legislature so desired.
This was going beyond even the 1975 accord. For the last clause of the accord, the draft of which was signed by Indira Gandhi's principal secretary G. Parthasa-rathy and Sheikh Abdullah’s lieutenant Mirza Mohammad Afzal Beg, had clearly pointed to the difference on this score. "No agreement was possible on the question of nomenclature...and the matter is therefore remitted to the principals," the document had said.
On the surface, Rao’s package is a major victory for Farooq Abdullah. But doubts remain on whether he will contest the polls. Indeed, there are no firm indications yet whether Rao’s bold gamble will pay off. "It’s not enough," Abdullah told his confidants, even as he left for Srinagar on November 5. While there is no arguing against the fact that neither Abdullah nor his National Conference command the same following in the embattled Valley as they once did, the credibility of the polls will be in a shambles if only "Delhi parties" like the Congress and the BJP participate in it.
But even with the clearing of the decks for elections, the one question that continues to haunt most minds in the strife-torn Valley is whether at all the polls will be free, fair and, what they are most concerned about, peaceful.
There has admittedly been a decrease in major strikes by the various militant groups operating in Kashmir and parts of the Jammu region. The Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front, the most popular in the Valley in terms of its ideological appeal, has become a divided house, and lacks the firepower it had in the early ’90s. And the pro-Pakistan Hizbul Mujahideen and the Harkat-ul-Ansar have been somewhat dormant of late.
But the fears—among both the security forces and the people—is that they have been saving their ammunition for the expected polls. They will in the next few days try and unleash a fresh wave of violence in a bid to derail the poll process. Sources in the military wings of various militant groups speak of plans to form a joint front to sabotage the polls. The separatist All India Hurriyat Conference, despite all its internal differences, is united in its opposition to the polls. It will not only issue a boycott call, but totally endorse the steps any of the tanzeems (constituent organisations) may take against the planned polls.
Government sources in the Union Home Ministry, however, say they expect the presence of new anti-Jamaat and anti-Hizbul forces like Kukka Parray's Ikhwan-ul-Muslimoon, the Militants Mukhalif Army and the Muslim Mujahideen to help make the going smoother.
Kukka Parray has already gone on record to say that his gunmen would not oppose the elections and state Congress chief Ghulam Rasool Kar has even said that Sarir Khan of the Muslim Mujahideen could be the Congress candidate in Chandusa.
As far as the state administration is concerned, it has got what it asked for. For the last few months, Governor K.V. Krishna Rao had been campaigning relentlessly for the elections with dark hints that he would quit if polls were not held. He had already started preparations in anticipation of the Union Cabinet’s nod which was finally received on November 4.
In fact, as far back as this May, the Election Commission had appointed returning officers to all the 87 Assembly constituencies in the state. But the authorities also realise the arduousness of the task ahead. Non-cooperation from the Kashmiri bureaucracy is one of the problems they will have to contend with. The first rumblings have already been felt. A meeting of the returning officers had to be convened and they had to be briefed about their responsibilities. The bulk of the Kashmiri bureaucrats refused to carry out these duties.
That the authorities were fully aware of the problems was evident even before the formal decision to go ahead with the polls was taken. The Government had already amended the Jammu and Kashmir Representation of the People Act to stipulate that the death of candidates in any constituency would not lead to countermanding of elections.
In the November 4 Cabinet meeting, a number of other amendments were decided upon "to provide for various contingencies". Taking cognisance of the booth-capturing ability of the militant groups, one of the amendments stipulates that the election to a constituency can be declared void if that happens. Some of the amendments are clearly aimed to win the support of the migrant Kashmiri population, mostly the Kashmiri pandits. One of these relates to the setting up of polling stations outside the area of a constituency and to provide for postal ballots. The move is also bound to increase the polling percentage.
So it’s back to the campaign trail in Kashmir. No one can say at this juncture who will win power in the embattled state. If the National Conference decides to contest, the fight will be basically between the National Conference and the Congress. The BJP has areas of influence in the Jammu region but can expect virtually nothing in the Valley, which has the bulk of the seats in the 87-member Assembly. Thus, it has little chances of grabbing power.
The one sure contender for power is, of course, the Congress. There are already hopes in the party that Kar will mark a turnaround in Kashmir just as Beant Singh had in Punjab. But then Kashmir is not Punjab, is it?
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