The Code Has Been Modified

All The Trumps

• BJP-Sena on a good wicket. Modi candidature, Uddhav’s resurgence, tie-ups with SSS, RPI all help.
• Cong-NCP infighting, corruption allegations weakening their cause
• Even MNS, NCP trying to build bridges with the BJP. But the Shiv Sena is not having any of it.
• SSS breech of NCP’s western Maharashtra stronghold will mean more seats for Mahayuti alliance

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On January 27, when the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi delivered a politically loaded speech at Mumbai’s Mahalaxmi Race Course, he had already clocked three rallies in Maharashtra in a span of just 30 days. The occasion, the 51st anniversary of Lata Mangeshkar’s patriotic song Aae Mere Watan ke Logon, lent itself to the perfect pitch that Modi would have wanted in Mumbai: Pakis­tan bashing. As Modi went about his routine, stoking the emotions of a city repeatedly battered by “Pak-sponsored terrorism”, the cheers from the one lakh or so people at the venue perhaps served as reaffirmation of Maharashtra’s importance in Modi’s PoA for Lok Sabha 2014.

With 48 seats, Maharashtra is crucial not just for Modi’s own bid for the top job but also for the Shiv Sena-BJP combine, which has been out of power for over a decade in the state. Modi has the loyal backing of a large chunk of the Gujarati community in Mumbai, but the Shiv Sena-BJP saffron set is really banking on the anti-incumbency against the Congr­ess-NCP government to pull it through.   

Is it any wonder then that the mood in the saffron camp in Maharashtra is rather upbeat. Party workers, both in the Sena and the BJP, are not just enthused about taking the headlong plunge into LS poll duties this summer but are even convinced that they will sweep the polls. As a senior state BJP leader puts it, “The Congress and the NCP have to carry the massive baggage of the last 10 years. There’s also infighting in the alliance. Their policies have failed the people...and if that isn’t enough, the BJP has countered whatever little goodwill this government has with the strong leadership of Narendra Modi.”

That Modi is a factor in Maharashtra is accepted even by state leaders. “Party surveys clearly show the BJP gaining in the state by at least eight per cent. That’s a huge percentage climb. Of course, the upswing is because of Narendrabhai candidature as the party’s PM nominee,” says one leader. “The voter is fed up of the continuous bickering betw­een the Congress and the NCP. The fact that the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance is looking steady is working hugely in our favour...voters want a steady alliance to form government.”

That theory may well be true in Maharashtra today. Even though the BJP-Sena combine dropped from 25 seats in 2004 to 20 in 2009, experts confirm that this time around, the Sena is definitely in a “good position”. Poll watchers further confirm that other than Modi’s elevation, a huge fillip has come from Uddhav himself. A senior Sena leader told Outlook, “There was worry in the ranks after Balasaheb’s death. But over the past few months, the Sainiks have started trusting and accepting Uddhav. He has not just managed to appear assertive in the face of criticism (from senior leaders like Manohar Joshi) but has now established himself as the undisputed leader of the Shiv Sena.” Last October’s Dusshera rally, the first after Bal Tha­ckeray’s death, was evidently a game changer. The Sainiks had taken upon themselves to boo veteran Manohar Joshi—who had earlier accused Uddhav of being “indecisive and complaisant”—off the stage. This event alone seems to have galvanised Sena activists at the grassroots level, consolidation its position in the rural belts.

The crowd at Modi’s Mumbai rally. (Photograph by Amit Haralkar)

Leaders believe the BJP’s victory in three of the five state assembly elections in 2013 has also been a huge boost for the Sena in Maharashtra: “There’s a growing feeling now that there is a wave for the NDA in large parts of the country. That wave is clearly evident in north and western India. We are only gaining from that perception.” The reason why Uddhav Thackeray fought tooth and nail to oppose politically estranged cousin Raj Thackeray’s hushed attempts to tie up with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Senior leaders in the know confirm that until some time back, Raj’s Maharashta Navnirman Sena (MNS) had spent quality time in hectic negotiations with the BJP, trying to thrash out an alliance with the NDA in some form. With existing alliance partner Uddhav putting his foot down, the BJP was left with little choice except to turn down the MNS (and this despite Raj’s open admiration of Modi). A senior BJP leader confirmed, “The decision of not going with the MNS was taken for two reasons. One, our own research established that despite Raj’s attempt to place his party as a third alternative (after taking cues from the AAP’s success in Delhi), the MNS voteshare this election will slide from five per cent to three. That made him a loss-making partner for the BJP.” He added that “the second, more important reason was that 2014 is a Lok Sabha election. And in Maha­rashtra, people like to vote for the MNS in municipal and state elections, not in the Lok Sabha polls”.

Clearly, the BJP is not keen on reviewing the 2009 election results when Raj had dented the Shiv Sena-BJP combine massively. Five years back, even though the MNS had failed to win seats, each of its nine candidates in the Mumbai-Thane-Nashik belt had got over a lakh votes, critically contributing to the Congress-NCP victory. This time, to counter any possible blowback, the ‘Mahayuti’ or the grand alliance as the NDA has now been renamed in Maharashtra, has forged and strengthened some critical alliances with the Swabhimani Shetkari Sangathan (SSS) and the Republican Party of India (RPI).

For party leaders, the alliance with Raju Shetti’s SSS is an important tool to make inroads into the sugarcane belt of western Maharashtra, otherwise a Sharad Pawar stronghold. Interestingly, in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP-Sena combine had drawn a blank in all eight seats in this western Maharashtra belt. Shetti, an independent MP from Hatkanangale constituency that spreads over Kolhapur and Sangli districts, has in the last five years managed to replace Pawar as the voice of the sugarcane farmers in the area.

The logic behind a tie-up with the SSS is simple: wrest the eight constituencies of Pune, Baramati, Satara, Hatkanangale, Sangli, Kolhapur, Solapur and Madha,  and also gain from the SSS’s influence in other districts like Latur, Osmanabad and Beed. Western Maharashtra is important for the BJP-Sena combine because this is one area where the saffron alliance has never managed to break ground, even at the height of its popularity in the 1990s. So far, the Congress and the NCP have enjoyed a stranglehold over the local politics in the region through their vast networks of sugar cooperatives, cooperative banks and cooperative milk producers’ associati­ons in the region. If western Maharashtra tilts in favour of the BJP-Sena, party ins­iders confirm there may be hope for a repeat of their stellar performance of 33 seats in 1996.  With growing resentment amongst farmers over the fiefdom of a few political families in the area, Shetti has over the years managed to steer a successful farmers agitation and cement his position against the NCP. In fact, in 2009, when the Congress-NCP sprang back to power in Maharashtra, Shetti had even managed to defeat NCP candidate Nivedita Mane in the Lok Sabha polls by one lakh votes. Both the BJP and the Shiv Sena lack a credible face in this region and Shetti in that sense could well be a vital cog for the saffron alliance in Maharashtra.

A similar calculation of reaping dividends through alliances was done last week when the BJP decided to offer its lone Rajya Sabha seat from Maharashtra to Dalit leader Ramdas Athawale, lea­der of the Republican party of India (Athawale faction). For long, the BJP-Sena combine had dragged its feet over Athawale’s candidature from Maha­ra­sh­tra considering that for the BJP it would mean sacrificing its own national spokesperson Prakash Javadekar’s nomination from the state. Finally, the party gave in to electoral compulsions. After all, Athawale is considered the most influential Dalit leader in Maharashtra and was made an alliance partner in the state at the behest of Uddhav Thackeray with an eye on social engineering in the state. Given the fact that the Dalits comprise a significant 28 per cent of the electorate, Athawale’s support to the Mahayuti in securing Dalit support and votes in key constituencies becomes crucial.

The alliances in place, now the Mahayuti will be hoping that a divided Congress-NCP house shoots itself in the foot in its own bastions. Now if that happens, then the long wait out of power may have handsomely paid off.