The BSP's Baseline Index

For a jilted partner, ex-CM Mayawati seems far too composed. The BSP's recent divorce with the BJP has made her even more attractive to a lot of other suitors, most notably the Congress. Mayawati, though, is playing coy maiden for the time being. She plans to fight the forthcoming assembly elections in Rajasthan, MP, Delhi and Chhattisgarh, all on her own.

Away from UP, where a split has reduced the strength of the BSP from 109 to 72 in a 402-member assembly, Mayawati is "doing national politics" in Delhi. "We're fighting the assembly elections on our own. Ours is a national party, unlike the Samajwadi Party, which is restricted to a region. We fight elections on our own at the national level," she asserted. She'll address a public rally in Jaipur on September 24 and widen her campaign to the rest of the poll-bound states, a decision that should worry the Congress.

Its reported advances were clearly rejected by Behenji, who flatly denied any possible alliance. "It is just a rumour spread by my detractors," she stressed.

The division in her ranks in UP too seems to have left her unaffected. She has been camping in Delhi ever since the news about possible defections from her party started doing the rounds. "Any time there's a new political formation, parties are split. It has happened to the Congress, the BJP, almost everyone," she says. "What is the big deal about it?"

Anyhow, says close confidant and BSP legislative council member Sudhir Goel, none of the defectors were from the BSP's own cadre. "They were elected because of the BSP and Madam's (Mayawati's) popularity. How does it matter if they have left the party now? It doesn't affect our sympathisers and followers in the least," he says.

The assessment is quite on target. Despite three divisions in its ranks over the years, the BSP has grown with each successive election. It first split in 1995 when after the break-up of its alliance with the SP, 17 of its 67 mlas defected to the other side. The second split came in 1997 when 19 of its mlas broke away and joined the BJP-led government after they broke up with the party.

Despite this, the BSP's voteshare of over 20 per cent remains unchallenged. Yet, the numbers aren't enough for the party to form a government on its own. Therein lies Mayawati's predicament.

She has to align with someone to secure the seat of power. Her warming up towards the BJP last fortnight despite her own claim that a "section of the BJP" engineered a split in her party point to Mayawati's future plans. Although she herself denies it presently, observers say it is only a matter of time before she goes the BJP way again.

"What alternative does she have?" asks Udit Raj of the Justice Party. "She'll ultimately patch up with the BJP. The split this time is also a result of her miscalculation. She was hoping to dissolve the assembly and have yet another round of elections to secure more seats. The BJP outsmarted her. But this is a temporary phenomenon. The BJP also needs her as much."

For the moment, Mayawati's turning a deaf ear to such comments. Her cadres follow her with deep devotion as she plans her election tours in the four states. Down she may be, but she's certainly not out.