Men have tried for decades. Then the Supreme Court tried for a decade. And finally a Union Government-constituted Tribunal tried. But nothing has worked and the two quarrelsome neighbours—Tamil Nadu and Karnataka—are only getting ready for another showdown. The Supreme Court "judgement", referring the latest deadlock between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka over sharing the Cauvery water to the arbitration of Prime Minister Narasimha Rao, has only prolonged the suspense.
For, it turned out to be a mere ritual. A two-day initiative by Rao, which brought chief ministers J. Jayalalitha and H.D. Deve Gowda on to the negotiation table on New Year's eve, yielded nothing. "Rao had no option other than hosting the meeting: the court had ordered it. We were not prepared for it, nor did we expect it to end the dispute", said a participant from the Centre.
Jayalalitha made her disappointment known after the first round of talks. She took off to Madras on December 30 to chair an informal cabinet meeting next morning. Here, she even contemplated an en masse resignation of her government and AIADMK MLAs from the assembly—an extreme option which would give her mileage before the state polls due in a few months.
"I expected Rao to find a solution as desired by the court," she said. Her stand is that Rao has to agree to her demand within two or three days—she refuses to wait for a study by an experts' team to facilitate Rao to take a decision, as suggested by her Karnataka counterpart. Deve Gowda, on the other hand, says he is "willing to go by what the Prime Minister decides," provided a study is carried out by a team headed by the Cabinet Secretary. This, he has assured the Centre, would hold even if Tamil Nadu pulls out of further talks.
The issue is a highly emotive one for both states as the Cauvery flows as a lifeline for farmers on both sides. Jayalalitha's failure to get at least 11 tmc water—immediately—would jeopardise her political fate and the standing paddy crops in the Cauvery delta region. The argument is that Karnataka's refusal to release 11 tmc ft of water—as directed by the Tribunal in its December 19, 1995, order—is affecting crops in 13.3 lakh acres. Moreover, Tamil Nadu claims that it actually needs at least 20 tmc ft of water.
Says Jayalalitha: "Rao must convene a Parliament session at once and amend the Inter-States Water Disputes Act of 1956 to vest on the Cauvery Tribunal the power to execute its own orders. If not, the Centre should immediately promulgate an ordinance to achieve the purpose." Deve Gowda's tone reflects the absence of urgency. "We have always said the issue needs to be settled through talks: the Supreme Court has upheld this," he says, bolstered by an assembly resolution to this effect.
Tamil Nadu, however, is not overjoyed by the apex court suggestion. Says DMK president and former chief minister M. Karunanidhi: "We went to the Supreme Court in the 1980s only after the failure of more than 14 rounds of talks at various levels between the two states. If the Centre is unable to implement a directive from a Tribunal constituted by it—following a Supreme Court directive—then what is the role of the Centre?"
Political parties in Tamil Nadu are even calling for the dismissal of the Karnataka government for its "intransigence". Deve Gowda, however, has gone on record that he would not compromise unless the Karnataka farmers' interests are not considered, even if it means losing his gaddi.
Unlike the hard-line consensus in Tamil Nadu, the leader of Opposition and former chief minister of Karnataka, Veerappa Moily, is more cautious than Deve Gowda. Says he: "The idea of equity has to be driven into the minds of both chief ministers. Both need to make some sacrifices, as it is a question of maintaining law and order."
A minor twist is provided by Kerala and Pondicherry, the other two low riparian states which are party to the dispute. Rao's individual meetings with chief ministers A.K. Antony (Kerala) and V. Vaithialingam (Pondicherry), held after the joint meeting of December 30, was also not more than a formality. "In fact, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have enjoyed a much bigger share of water out of the total 740 tmc than what they have actually contributed," says Kerala chief minister A.K. Antony.
Meanwhile, proofs and counter-proofs are being flung about. Karnataka claims that five photographers went on a "secret mission", disguised as Ayyappa devotees, and collected photographic evidence to prove Tamil Nadu's claim hollow. It has also used a charter helicopter and the Special Task Force hunting for Veerappan on the Karnataka-Tamil Nadu border, where Mettur Dam is situated, to collect evidence. These pictures show copious amounts of water flowing in various canals in the Cauvery basin in Tamil Nadu.
Of course, no one in Tamil Nadu is willing to buy this. "Let the Supreme Court judges or the Prime Minister visit the place and see for themselves, rather believing some doctored picture," says S. Ranganathan, president of the Cauvery Delta Farmer's Association, which originally filed the case in the Supreme Court to get the Tribunal constituted. Such pressure lobbies are there on both sides—and they have only helped preclude a compromise till now.
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