As campaigning moves into the home stretch, Congress hopes are pinned on Andhra Pradesh and, to a far lesser extent, on Kerala. But even in both these states, there is no perceptible wave in favour of the party. In Andhra, it hopes to capitalise on the division of Telugu Desam Party (TDP) votes between the Chandrababu Naidu and Lakshmi Parvathi factions. And then, there's the 'Telugu bidda' plank for Prime Minister Narasimha Rao.
However, the half-a-dozen meetings that Rao has addressed in the state have proved that Andhra will be no cakewalk. Party workers found mobilising crowds for the Prime Minister's meetings difficult. To make matters worse, Rao's insipid speeches failed to hold back the crowds in the first leg of his tour. In the second round, he changed tack and attacked the regional parties for their limited role in national politics. Rao's talk of stability at the Centre and the benefits of liberalisation may, at best, sound sweet to the middle class—the masses, on the other hand, go more for the sheer charisma of icons like NTR.
This is where the two TDP factions come in. Congress strategists are banking on a split in the TDP votes and, sure enough, both Naidu and Parvathi are invoking NTR's name to woo voters. But there are indications that Parvathi may actually pip Naidu to the post, belying Congress calculations. She is riding high on a sympathy wave, drawing sizeable crowds wherever she goes. Her well-planned campaign projects her as the wronged woman and Naidu is portrayed, effectively, as the man responsible for bringing down the NTR government. Slogans like 'Babu vennu potu, Anna gunde potu' (Naidu stabbed him and NTR died a broken man) is straight out of a Telugu melodrama and may well click at the electoral box office.
It's difficult to gauge how many of the people who come to her meetings will actually vote for her. But she has been making the right noises and the assurance in her faction's manifesto that she will lift the ban on the People's War Group (PWG), active in Telengana, may help her win votes in the region which accounts for 13 parliamentary seats. And though there is that element of confusion for the rural electorate (posters and publicity material of both groups have one common feature: pictures and references to NTR), the feeling is that Parvathi has gained considerable ground on the campaign trail.
The Congress, on the contrary, is on a stickier wicket now. With disgruntled elements who were denied tickets working against it in several constituencies, the party may find it difficult to repeat its 1991 performance when it bagged 25 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Pollsters may have given an edge to the Congress over the two warring TDP factions but the election could well spring a few surprises in favour of Parvathi.
In Kerala, it's now clear that the Congress-led six-party United Democratic Front (UDF) has but one trumpcard: Chief Minister A.K. Antony. And the ace up his sleeve is his ban on arrack and the promise to bring total prohibition if the UDF is voted back to power. But for this masterstroke and the Mr Clean image that the chief minister enjoys, the UDF could well have been in a sorry state. Now it's running neck to neck with the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), although observers still give the Left an edge.
With less than a week to go before elections, the UDF is still plagued by internal problems. The much-written-about feud between Antony and predecessor K. Karunakaran has already left its negative imprint. Antony has his hands full in the Cherthala constituency, staunching the internal bleeding caused by an openly antagonistic Karunakaran faction and coping with his LDF opponent C.K. Chandrappan's belligerent campaign.
The UDF also goes to the polls minus its traditional ally—the upper caste Nair Service Society's political grouping, the National Democratic Party (NDP). Every effort to woo the NDP back has failed and the UDF may have to pay the price since the NSS has a presence in almost all the constituencies. To add to this, Rao's promise at Kot-tayam to provide reservation for Dalit Christians may further alienate caste Hindus. Indeed, Rao's whirlwind tour drew very thin crowds. In Thiruvananthapuram, just about 2,000 people turned out for the Shanghumugham beach meeting. It was the same in Kottayam and Palakkad—a far cry from the throngs Rajiv Gandhi and V.P. Singh attracted.
Karunakaran, who was one of the key players in seeing Rao crowned Prime Minister in 1991, is clearly a changed man. His supporters have been making anti-Rao noises ever since nominations were filed. Even so, there was general surprise when Karunakaran told the press that the thin attendance at Rao's meetings in Kerala was because he "lacked charisma". This is ominous for Rao, as Karunakaran is not one to air radical opinions without back-up support.
As far as the LDF is concerned, the only area of concern is the impact the arrack ban can have on voters, particularly women. Prohibition finds much support among women and UDF poll managers like PCC President Vylar Ravi believe women voters could turn the tide in their favour. On paper, it looks plausible. Women voters outnumber men marginally and many women's' groups and prohibition lobbies like the Church are openly rooting for the UDF. But the arrack ban is seen as the individual achievement of Antony, not of the UDF. Even LDF campaigners accept that the chief minister is personally above corruption. Hence, the argument, as an LDF speaker told his audience in Alleppey, is: "Antony might be a saint but what about the sinners whose company he seeks."
At the end of the day, the LDF's well-oiled machinery may see them through in enough of the 140 assembly and 20 Lok Sabha seats up for grabs in the state. Its campaigners look far more committed in their sustained door-to-door campaign. The UDF efforts, on the contrary, have been dogged by reluctant cadres and rebels.
As far as Tamil Nadu goes, the anti-Jayalalitha wave is clearly intensifying. As a result, the Congress which struck a pre-poll alliance with the AIADMK finds itself on a very shaky wicket. In the 1991 elections,the Congress-AIADMK won all 39 of the Lok Sabha seats in the state. This time, not even the most ardent Congress supporter would expect half that number.
The combine of the DMK and the Moopanar group, which fell out with the Congress high command over the alliance with the AIADMK, is armed with the active benediction of superstar Rajnikant. The AIADMK, fighting back to the wall, has been trying to cash in on the MGR legacy but has not made much headway. Party leaders, including the chief minister, have had to face hostile crowds in many constituencies. Even Rao's presence at the Salem rally failed to attract the crowds.
The outcome in Tamil Nadu is likely to prove costly to the Congress. While its campaigning has virtually run out of steam, it is also threatened by the return of Rajnikant from a holiday abroad. Even if the superstar does not go from constituency to constituency, a few statements from him would whip up enough frenzy against the Congress-AIADMK axis. The star's huge fan club will ensure that the word is spread around. In both the assembly and Lok Sabha polls, the Congress cannot expect much from Tamil Nadu.
The elections to the 28 Lok Sabha constituencies in Karnataka are being seen as a prestige issue by the Janata Dal. The party, it seems, has got the whiff of victory and senior leaders like Chief Minister Deve Gowda, Ramakrishna Hegde, S.R. Bommai and state party chief C.M. Ibrahim have hit the road for a second time, albeit with separate itineraries, to woo voters. In the 1991 elections, the Janata Dal had failed to win a single Lok Sabha seat. This time, it's aiming to leap-frog straight into double figures. The surest hint of the fact that the party means business is that even the semiretired former prime minister V.P. Singh is pitching in actively—he drew a large crowd at his meeting in Hubli.
What may go to the Janata Dal's benefit is a likely polarisation of votes on a 'communal' basis. For, the BJP has steadily nudged itself into the big league of Karnataka politics. But sans a wave in its favour, it is not likely to improve on its previous tally of four seats—a prediction the party is eager to disprove. Says Anantha Kumar, the BJP national general secretary who stands a good chance from Bangalore South: "The credibility of our party and the reliability of our leaders will ensure the BJP a majority of votes." Atal Behari Vajpayee is also campaigning in the state, with an agenda of eight public meetings, the first of which in Bangalore drew an encouraging crowd of 10,000.
The Janata Dal is harping on Hindu-Muslim unity and social justice and hopes to cash in on the post-Ayodhya Muslim vote, which in the last elections had gone the Congress way. Even if the Muslim votes are split, it could augur well for the Janata Dal. Fuelling the optimism in the party is the feeling of resignation among the Congress ranks. Though state party leaders have been campaigning in groups, highlighting the achievements of the Rao Government, they admit the party tally could dip beyond its all-time low of 18 seats in 1967. In the 1991 elections, the Congress had bagged 23 of the 28 parliamentary seats. Sceptics in the party, who blame the high command for failing to forge a tie-up with Bangarappa's Karnataka Congress Party, say the Congress will have to pay a heavy price for that.
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