The announcement is expected any time in November, either coinciding with Jawaharlal Nehru’s birthday on November 14 or with that of Indira Gandhi’s on November 19. Few of the hopeful leaders can give any definite reasons for their expectations. But they say an indication has been received by the many MPs, ministers, and former ministers who have been calling on Sonia Gandhi at her well-guarded 10 Janpath residence in the capital.
Among those frequently seen at the Gandhi residence are Welfare Minister Sitaram Kesri, Agriculture Minister Balram Jakhar, Industry Minister K. Karunakaran, Tourism and Civil Aviation Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad and Environment Minister Rajesh Pilot. Of late, former Maharashtra chief minister Sharad Pawar has been calling on her whenever he is in town, as is Kerala Chief Minister A.K. Antony and his Madhya Pradesh counterpart Digvijay Singh.
Sources close to 10 Janpath confirm that some of the VIP visitors have voiced serious concern to Rajiv Gandhi’s widow about the state of the party on the eve of the Lok Sabha elections, and have been pleading with her to "do something" to save the situation. They have also argued that she as the inheritor of the family’s legacy alone had the moral right to reunite the Congress. They are doing so in the belief that their entreaties might influence Sonia to give a call for party unity.
Leaders of the breakaway Congress (Tiwari) faction are particularly hopeful on this count as they have made little headway on their own. Sonia represents the only means of political survival, as the rallying point around whom disgruntled Congressmen will flock. She has so far not lived up to these expectations and several members of the rebel factions are reportedly seeking an honourable return to the fold. If Sonia Gandhi were to call for party unity, it could prove a face-saver for them.
Also, given the depressingly drab preelection scenario, bereft of issues or charismatic personalities, it is inevitable that the eyes of the rank-and-file turn to 10, Janpath. The prospect of wooing voters on the well-worn plank of stability and the ephemeral benefits of liberalisation has not boosted the confidence of party MPs. Sonia could provide the much-needed face-lift for the Congress campaign.
For some party leaders, there is more at stake than the Lok Sabha poll. A victorious Rao, assured of another five years in office, would be a different cup of tea from the precariously perched leader who somehow managed to survive for five years. Such a transformation would not suit a section of the Congress.
Interestingly, while Sonia is being wooed on the eve of the elections, her last call for unity was ignored. "Every time she makes a statement which has no impact, her influence lessens," said a party MP. After her Amethi outburst, there was no re-alignment of forces within the party. Explaining the seeming indifference in the Congress, MPs said they were waiting for "a clear signal from madam". Also, the cabinet reshuf-fle was in the offing and there were many hopeful contenders for ministerial posts. The question of who would distribute tickets for the 1996 poll was another factor. "No one is willing to gamble with his future and lead the effort to bring in Sonia," said a party functionary.
Rao, for his part, took note of her charges at the Congress Parliamentary Party meeting, denying any deliberate delay in the assassination probe or departure from the principles of his predecessors. Commerce Minister P. Chidambaram gave an emotional assurance that the probe would be completed within the year. At the same time, Home Minister S.B. Chavan dropped hints that the Government had information regarding the Bofors case which could embarrass the late Rajiv Gandhi’s family.
The Prime Minister also accommodated some vocal members of the Sonia coterie, like S.S. Ahluwalia and Suresh Pachauri, in his jumbo cabinet. An MP close to Pachauri pointed out that by co-opting her advisers, Rao succeeded in isolating Sonia. "The so-called Sonia loyalists used her to get ministerial berths by shuttling between the PMO and 10, Janpath," he added.
The disgruntled Congress leaders see her as a check on a too-powerful Rao, a means to prevent him from turning the party into a personal fiefdom. Rao’s tendency to take decisions without consulting them has piqued many senior party leaders and they fear that a victory in 1996 would make him unassailable. They argue that if Rao were to return to power, he would margin-alise Sonia. "She may have to wait for another five years to launch her children, but by then her clout will have diminished," observed an MP from Maharashtra. Party leaders have also pointed out that a large number of MPs who were given tickets by her late husband in 1991 owe her some loyalty. Unless she steps forward now, that loyalty will be a thing of the past. According to sources, Sonia’s terse response to this suggestion is that she would not like her children to ride on the family heritage.
If a section of Congress leaders feel it is in their interest to persuade Sonia to take the plunge, another faction would like to keep her out for the same reason. Among them are Chavan and Parliamentary Affairs Minister V.C. Shukla. Most MPs, however, prefer to keep both doors open. "It will be good for the party if she joins, but we cannot offer her the party presidentship," said a Rao loyalist cautiously.
Sonia, however, is reported to have expressed disgust with the party as a whole. Her disenchantment with Rao is no secret. And Arif Mohammad Khan’s allegation that godman Chandraswami, erstwhile con-fidant of the Prime Minister, had plotted against Rajiv Gandhi could hardly have mit -igated her distrust of Rao. Apart from her own obvious reluctance to jump into the fray—she had tried to dissuade her husband from getting into pol -itics—security is a limiting factor for Sonia. In the wake of Beant Singh’s assassination, security considerations dictate that she avoid public appearances of the Amethi magnitude. Consequently, her public meetings scheduled during a trip to Kerala were cancelled.
Even Sonia groupies admit she is an unlikely candidate for prime ministership. But her very presence could restore the fortunes of the party, at least in Uttar Pradesh. "She is the only person who can win the minorities back to the Congress," said an MP from Punjab. For the future, Congressmen are putting their money on Priyanka Gandhi. At Amethi, her rapport with the crowds was undeniable. It was she who guided her mother, prompting her to wave to the people, explaining the slogans and even urging area MP Captain Satish Sharma to cut short his speech when the crowds became restive.
But finally, no one quite knows what the lady will do, or whether she will do anything at all. As a senior Congress leader admitted, the party is saddled with two totally unfathomable minds. One is that of Narasimha Rao, who plays his cards ever so closely to his chest. The other is that of Sonia Gandhi, and the mind games become even more difficult because of her long bouts of silence. She remains, the unsmiling, inscrutable enigma.
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