Shooting Range

• The inconsistent blow-hot-blow-cold policy has backfired.
  
• The six week unilateral ceasefire last year helped insurgents regroup and revive.
  
• The last round of peace talks yielded little.
  
• The insurgents must first reigned in before any talks.
  
• Grievances of the local people must be addressed if insurgency is to be contained.

The opposition parties in Assam may blame theUPA's half-baked peace efforts for the marginalised ULFA's revival but CM Tarun Gogoi is categorical that the government's attempt to push peace—by suspending army operations for six weeks in August-September last year—was in principle not a flawed policy. But he does admit that things did not go according to plan. "Delhi went for a truce because it was sincere in its quest for peace. But the ULFA continued with its violence even during that period and utilised the time to regroup and renew their contacts," says Gogoi.

For its part, the army had all along openly expressed its scepticism over the ceasefire. New Delhi's unilateral declaration of ceasefire (top Assam officials say the state government was not aware of the Centre's decision) came in the wake of three rounds of talks between the ULFA-appointed People's Consultative Group (PCG), a peace panel formed on September 7, 2005, and the Centre between October 2005 and June 2006. It was a gambit that went horribly wrong. Statistics show that between September 8, '05 and June '06, militants triggered off as many as 52 blasts. At least 41 civilians were killed and 135 injured in ULFA violence during the so-called truce.

Following the latest cycle of violence, a stern-faced Union home secretary V.K. Duggal had this to say: "We are still interested in talking peace with the ULFA, but it can happen only when the group abjures violence." The view was echoed by Gogoi and it seems New Delhi is now bent on cornering the rebels. A massive crackdown by the army, police and the paramilitary has already started. "Security forces in Arunachal Pradesh have also begun an offensive in three districts along the border with Assam to neutralise ULFA rebels criss-crossing the two states," says Assam DGP R.N. Mathur.

But why are migrant workers the main targets for ULFA attacks? Well, there is a history to it. In 2003 and earlier in 2000, 150 Hindi-speaking migrant workers were killed. That a similar pogrom was in the offing was indicated by the ULFA in a recent issue of mouthpiece Swadhinata (Freedom), which is usually circulated by e-mail. The rebels had said that "the outsiders" had set up "mini-Bihars, mini- Rajasthans and mini-Bengals" in different parts of Assam and called for their ouster. Points out N.G. Mahanta, who heads Guwahati University's Peace and Conflict Studies Centre: "The idea behind the selective killings is aimed at drawing New Delhi's urgent attention to some of ULFA's immediate demands, including perhaps an attempt to get the peace process resumed on terms favourable to it." Besides, the Hindi-speaking 'outsiders' are considered part of the dominant political establishment ruling the country, and also seen to be cornering livelihood opportunities.

According to ULFA watchers, the local appeal is because it focuses on grievances not addressed by the state. Official figures show that between 1991 and October '06, security forces killed 1,128 ULFA cadres and captured 11,173 others. Besides, 8,465 ULFA men also surrendered in this period. Yet, the insurgency has raged on. "The ULFA has been able to crystallise an idea fuelled by grievances among locals over lack of opportunities. Their strength can't be assessed by the number of rebels killed/captured," says ex-DGP Harekrishna Deka.

At the moment, the ULFA appears defiant and on the offensive. On January 9, a hit squad packed a motorcycle with explosives and blew it up in front of the Dispur police station, barely 15 metres away from the state assembly complex and close to the CM's secretariat. Two policemen were injured. A day earlier, the ULFA had exploded two bombs in Guwahati, injuring 15 people, just metres away from the army cantonment entrance. Two grassroots-level Congress leaders were also killed by ULFA men.

That New Delhi is worried was indicated by the spate of vip visits to the scenes of the carnage. Union MoS for home Sriprakash Jaiswal, railway minister Laloo Prasad Yadav, defence minister A.K. Antony accompanied by the army chief Gen J.J. Singh, they were all there. For the Congress-led government of Tarun Gogoi, a lot more is at stake: Guwahati is to host the country's biggest sporting event, the National Games, from February 9-18. The ULFA could not have timed its terror run better. It had earlier called for a boycott of the Games and is now bent on enforcing its diktat by creating an all-round fear psychosis.

Does all this mean that the ULFA isn't interested in peace? Deepak Narayan Dutt, who retired as Assam police chief last fortnight, says: "The rebels have proved they are not keen on peace. This could be because of the massive influence of the Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence and its Bangladeshi equivalent, the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence."

Meanwhile, the PCG has remained silent on the carnage although it was set up to push peace. PCG coordinator and ULFA-backed peace facilitator, Jnanpith awardee Indira Goswami, though did react. "I am horrified by the killings. These are senseless acts and must stop," she says. Influential groups like the All Assam Students' Union (AASU) have also condemned the violence. "We don't know the motive behind this carnage, but the vacuum created by the fleeing Bihari workers will only be filled up by the hordes of illegal Bangladeshi migrants looking for jobs here," says AASU advisor Samujjal Bhattacharyya.

Amid all this is a panic-stricken migrant worker community. Many of those who survived the violence are bent on catching the first train out to Bihar. The challenge before the Assam government as well as the Centre is to first rein in the ULFA and then find a solution that will work on the ground. The question is: can they find new answers to a 30-year-old problem?