NOTWITHSTANDING what they call the ‘first round loss’ in the battle forpower, there is a sense of nervous excitement among most leaders of the Third Front thesedays. The Front is confident that the BJP Government will come crashing down on or beforeMay 31 when Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has to prove his majority in the LokSabha, and that their leader H.D. Deve Gowda will be sworn in as Prime Minister shortlyafterwards.
"He is our prime minister-in-waiting. Vajpayee is but a pretender to thethrone," said senior Janata Dal leader Ram Vilas Paswan on Saturday. The confidencestemmed from the fact that three days after Vajpayee was sworn in as Prime Minister, the Third Front comprising the Janata Dal, the Left parties and regional groups like the DMK, the TMC, the TDP and the AGP was remained totally intact. What came as a further boost was the signal received from the younger lot of Congress leaders like Rajesh Pilot and Ashok Gehlot—fast emerging as the new Young Turks in the party—that they would not letP.V. Narasimha Rao renege on the commitment to give unconditional support to a governmentled by Deve Gowda.
The confidence level was remarkable, particularly in the light of thefact that less than a week earlier the Third Front had appeared to be floundering, unableto find a leader acceptable to all sections, and running to an unwilling V.P. Singhvirtually begging him to take charge. The move to present a solid, credible coalition asan alternative had also crumbled in the face of the refusal by the central committee ofthe CPI(M) to reconsider their decision not to join the Third Front Government, but tosupport it from the outside.
Things had appeared hopelessly adrift even after Deve Gowda’selection as the leader. The uneasy relationship with the Congress, without which there waslittle chance of keeping the BJP out of power, seemed to be developing into an openconfrontation as senior Janata Dal leaders charged Rao with deliberately delaying givingthe President the letter about the Congress support to Deve Gowda and of being involved ina conspiracy to keep the Third Front out. But after the initial shock of the BJP havingtaken over power in South Block, the drift was quickly arrested.
Much of the credit for this, undoubtedly, belongs to Chan-drababu Naiduand M. Karunanidhi, the chief ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Naidu hadorganised the marshalling of his party’s MLAs in ’84 when N.T. Rama Rao had beendispossessed of power in the state, and he put his organisational skills to full use. Thefirst step was the formation of a steering committee with the top leaders of allsupporting parties in the Third Front. This gave them a vested interest in keeping theflock of MLAs intact and making them less susceptible to allurements by the BJP.
Care was also taken to keep the channels of communication with both theCongress leadership and the emerging Young Turks in the party open. That the Third Frontleaders had understood the need to avoid confrontation with the Congress was evident onFriday when the Janata Dal spokesperson welcomed V.N. Gadgil’s assertion of hisparty’s commitment to bring down the BJP Government. A day later, informalconsultations for the election of the Speaker—the first parliamentary test of theBJP’s strength—had begun.
However, senior leaders of the Third Front are still wary. "Raowill not dare bail out the BJP Government with support or abstentions when the confidencemotion comes up for voting. But how can we be sure what he will do thereafter?" saida senior Janata Dal leader.
The fear is that if the BJP Government is defeated, the President mayinvite the leader of the second largest party to form the Government. And according to theinformation received by the Third Front leaders, Rao loyalists still want him to keep thatoption open. That could cause a real crisis. For, under no circumstance can parties likethe DMK, the TMC or even the CPI(M) be prevailed upon to support a government led by Rao.
Once again the Third Front leaders are hoping that inner partycompulsions will keep Rao away from his famed Machiavellian manoeuvres. "Rao hasmanaged to keep his leadership intact only after assuring his detractors that the partywould support the effort for a non-BJP alternative. If he goes back on that, his ownposition could be seriously threatened," said a CPI(M) leader.
But, for the moment, the goal is to dislodge the BJP Government. Andtill then what prevails is the cautious optimism of seeing their prime minister-in-waitingsworn in.
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