Patels May Pull Plug

Saurashtra has never voted on communal lines. It votes on issues and caste. The common man is disillusioned, the women fed up. They have to travel long distances for water," says Narandas Thakkar in Rajkot. "We are not interested in Godhra and Mian Musharraf. It is high time the BJP did something for us. When Narendra Modi campaigned in Rajkot—he ran away from there finally—he had said water would be available in plenty. But we hardly get water for 20 minutes, and that too is uncertain," says Ninaben Dave.

Political pundits are all agreed that Saurashtra could prove to be crucial for both the BJP and the Congress. If anti-incumbency, very perceptible in this region, translates into votes against the BJP, then the Congress could make major gains.

In Kutch many seem to be upset with the earthquake rehabilitation programme. "We were promised a lot. But nothing's happened. This government is only bothered about killing Muslims and does not care about the people of Kutch," a quake victim who is yet to get compensation tells you.

Water is the big issue in this region. Vajubhai Vala, the BJP candidate in Rajkot-2 constituency, has had a difficult time during the campaign, fending off the many awkward questions. And it's always about water, or unemployment and the soaring prices of essentials. A strong anti-incumbency factor is also working against several sitting BJP mlas, most of them ministers. "We'll just have to convince the people that our performance was much better than that of the Congress," says BJP spokesman for Saurashtra, Raju Dhruv.

Then, there are the BJP rebels, like ex-minister Parmanand Khattar, who's contesting as an independent. Says Khattar, "For the first time, the Sindhis who are in a majority in my constituency, Jamnagar, are going to vote against the BJP." Khattar is quite popular in the Jamnagar area and his presence is likely to affect the BJP's prospects in at least three adjoining constituencies too.

The Patel community is still smarting from the injustice meted out to Keshubhai. To cash in on this, the Congress has fielded as many as 41 Patels. This will surely cut into the Patel votes, a major chunk of the electorate. The ploy is a masterstroke from Shankersinh Vaghela. Since he's been inducted into the Congress, the party also expects to woo some Kshatriya voters. Leaders from both the BJP and the Congress say the ruling party may lose seats: "It could either be 33-25 (BJP-Congress) or 38-20." The consensus figure is that the Congress will win 15-20 seats.