IT may not have been a photofinish, but the outcome of the just concluded civic polls in Uttar Pradesh has left the twomain forces insisting that they are "the real gainers". Both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) are expounding a theory a day to justify their claims. And Lucknow is abuzz with projections of "the impending victory" of either party in the state during the coming general elections.
The BJP has made some obvious gains. It won eight out of 11 mayoral seats in the elections to the various nagar nigams (municipal corporations) in the main cities. As for the nagar palika parishads (municipal boards) in the smaller cities, the party has emerged with 82 out of a total of 197 seats contested for the chairperson's post.
Besides, the BJP has secured 100 seats in the various nagar panchayats, many of them in semi-rural areas. A majority of the seats, however, have been won by independent candidates, who were elected to 232 of the 418 seats.
The BJP leadership is relieved that factionalism and the conflicting signals it sent out with its shortlived marriage of convenience with Kanshi Ram's BSP did not do as much harm as was feared. It is particularly happy with the signs that the party may be growing out of its urban-centric image trap. Says Lalji Tandon, senior BJPleader in the state: "We have done well even in the smaller towns which have large rural segments."
Yet, the BJP cannot ignore the fact that out of a total state electorate of 10 crore, only two crore people were eligible to vote in the civic elections, of whom approximately 70 per cent actually cast their ballot. So, while the party can cite the two seats it picked up in Mulayam Singh's backyard, Jaswant Nagar, what it calls"an overwhelming support" that "shows the will of the people" can only be a maximum of about 60 lakh.
Again, in last year's polls for the rural local bodies, it had managed to capture only 11,while the SP put chairpersons in 34 zilla panchayats. But the BJP, it seems, is in no mood for introspection. Says Tandon: "This urban-rural vote pattern which Mulayam and his party speak of is only a fig leaf to cover their humiliating failure in the polls to the urban local bodies."
But, state BJP sources say the gameplan is to project a resurgent party which is on a roll. And for that the mandate it has received, however limited, has been a godsend. "The point is, these results have given us the psychological edge and we are naturally going to play that up," adds Tandon.
The SP, on the other hand, holds that it has emerged stronger from these elections. "We had a negligible presence in urban areas and a majority of these areashave BJP MLAs and MPs. Yet we have performed creditably," says Ram Saran Das, the party's state unit president.
He claims it was the party's "strategy" to let a large number of "sympathetic candidates" contest rather than nominate offi-cial party candidates. "You see, our strength will increase massively when these independents join the party...the process has begun," says Das.
What Mulayam Singh has to deal with is the fact that his bargaining power vis-avis the Janata Dal has been eroded to anextent with these elections. A section of the Dal leadership is clamouring for a state alliance that includes the BSP and the poll outcome can become a stick they can use to beat Mulayam into submission.
Apart from being the obvious loser to the BJP in these elections, the SP also has to take note of subtle but disturbing shifts in voting patterns. Says a senior state official: "The high-handed behaviour of the Yadav community since Mulayam's rise has led to a situation where Dalit voters have turned away from the SP if they have nominated a Yadav candidate, but have voted for Mulayam in most other areas."
And last but not the least, the year-long alliance with the SP in 1994-95 has led to minor gains for the BSP as well. Because, as observers point out, a section of the Muslim vote has gone the BSP way wherever there has been a weak SP candidate.
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