On Coalition Course

WHEN President Shankar Dayal Sharma administered the oath of office to United Front (UF) leader H.D. Deve Gowda and his two-tier council of ministers at Ashoka Hall in Rashtrapati Bhawan on June 1, it was the culmination of perhaps the most turbulent—and at times the most tortuous—process of political  realignment the nation had ever witnessed. Apart from the Janata Dal, which dominated the Cabinet bagging nine of the 20 ministerial berths, four of the most prominent regional parties that comprise the 13-party Front—the TDP (Naidu), DMK, Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) and the Samajwadi Party—were represented. And with the CPI finally agreeing to join the Government on June 2 and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) likely to follow suit, paeans for a genuinely federal government for India—which seems on the anvil—are already being sung.

Some of the Cabinet appointments, however, reflected the intense behind-the-scenes manoeuvring and jostling for power that have dominated the formation of the Gowda-led UF Government. Take the contentious issue of the participation of hawala-tainted leaders in the Government. Despite indications to the contrary, Gowda has included former Karnataka chief minister and senior Janata Dal leader S.R. Bommai in the Cabinet on the pretext that his name only figured in the Jain diaries but he was not chargesheeted. In fact, Bommai turned up at Karnataka Bhawan on the morning of June 1 to plead his case for inclusion in the Cabinet.

Gowda agreed, but this happened a few hours after he, along with other members of the UF steering committee, had told senior JD leader Sharad Yadav, who has been chargesheeted in the hawala scam, that he would not find a place in the council of ministers. Yadav, despite the nearly two hours that Gowda spent with him, continued to sulk and his mood was described as 'ugly' when he realised that Bommai had managed a Cabinet berth. According to UF sources, there were shades of a quid pro quo in Bommai's inclusion and it was in return for him not throwing his hat in for the Karnataka chief ministership. He also gave an assurance that he would not interfere in Karnataka politics. Gowda wants to keep his hold on the Karnataka JD and is still smarting from J.H. Patel being made chief minister against his wishes.

 While Gowda has exercised his will in Cabinet formation and included two senior JD leaders from Karnataka, he has had to make concessions to the other power centre in his party, Laloo Prasad Yadav. Of the nine JD ministers, six are from Bihar and, apart from Ram Vilas Paswan, are staunch Laloo supporters. But the other JD regional chieftain, Biju Patnaik, did not find a place in the Cabinet, ostensibly because of corruption charges. Also, it would be 'embarrassing' for him to serve under his junior. But he still ensured that JD leader Srikant Jena was not included in the Cabinet.

As for the key portfolios of home and finance, Gowda played it safe. Former commerce minister P. Chidambaram, now of the TMC, was given finance in a bid to assure industry (and the Congress) on economic reforms. The Left seems to have reconciled itself to this. "We have not objected too loudly only because this is a Government of consensus and compromise. But the finance minister will have to go by the agreed common programme of all UF constituents," a senior Left leader told Outlook. Significantly, Gowda's retention of the personnel portfolio is being interpreted as an attempt to assure the Congress that the CBI will be directly under him.

Former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav was given defence although he was eyeing the home portfolio. Gowda reportedly did not want to give a talking point to the BJP and a section of the Congress who regard Yadav as controversial. Senior CPI(M) leaders are also learnt to have impressed upon Mulayam the need to concentrate his energies not on portfolio squabbles, but on the forthcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly polls. 

The delicate matter of giving adequate representation to various regions, castes and communities in the Cabinet also came to the fore as there is not a single minister from the politically important states of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Ker-ala and Orissa. Not to mention Rajasthan, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and the North-east. Interestingly, the first minister to be sworn in was Balwant Singh Ramoowalia, formerly an Akali leader, who was picked out of virtual obscurity to ensure representation to the Sikh community.

But all of these factors, along with the fact that upper caste north India has only a very marginal representation in the Cabinet, is asignificant pointer to the shift in the balance of power—from the North to the South—that the ruling coalition represents. For now, Gowda's emphasis is on proving his majority in Parliament well before the June 12 deadline. But the fact that a political grouping as diverse as the UF has not only succeeded in replacing the BJP government—and that too with the support, however reluctant, of the Congress—remains the real surprise to some. To be fair, the non-Congress, non-BJP forces had been insisting well before the general elections were announced that the possibility of such a force acquiring cohesiveness and making the compromises needed to make this 'pipe-dream' a reality was not as remote as its opponents would have the nation believe. But in the last lap of the race for power after the Atal Behari Vajpayee government had fallen, the stumbling blocks for the UF seemed only to multiply.

IN fact, even on May 31, with less than 24 hours left for the swearing-in ceremony, Gowda seemed set to lead a lame-duck UF government to power, with the Congress playing aggressive backseat driver. DMK President M. Karunanidhi seemed intent on staying out of the Cabinet. Senior DMK leaders were adamant on securing guarantees on the equitable sharing of the Cauvery waters—which has been a long-standing dispute between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu—and did not want the restrictions that sharing power with Gowda would necessitate vis-a-vis their plan of action on the issue. Also, after being snubbed by the Congress high command during discussions on a pre-poll alliance, the DMK was reluctant to be part of a government dependent on Congress support. The TMC had its own doubts on the feasibility of joining a government supported by the 'untrustworthy Congress', from which it had broken away. This was compounded by the hesitation of its electoral ally, the DMK. The steering committee of the AGP had even passed a resolution against participating in a government dependent on the Congress for survival. And, in what threatened to be the proverbial last straw was a similar stand by And-hra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu, who had played a crucial role in the Front's gestation period.

But on the evening of May 31, the regional leaders agreed that they would participate in the new government despite their reservations. This was mainly due to assiduous attempts made by former prime minister V.P. Singh (see box) who, along with Gowda, assuaged many of the doubts assailing the regional parties. And as the galaxy of regional leaders addressed a crowded press conference later that evening to announce their participation in the Gowda-led Government, the formation of a four-party Federal Front comprising the TDP(N), DMK, TMC and AGP, was also proclaimed. Said Naidu: 

"We have come together because our problems are the same and we must seek a solution together. We will not have a separate agenda. But we would unitedly be giving our recommendations to the UF for inclusion in the common minimum programme." What he did not say, but probably implied, was that the Front would be a powerful pressure group which commanded the loyalty of 58 MPs and would seek to significantly influence Centre-state relations. It also provided proof that the regional parties, who for the first time found themselves in a near-commanding position, did use the period between May 28 and May 31 to increase their bargaining power.  

For all that, Gowda was in a bullish mood on June 1 when, directly after being sworn in, he spoke to the media. And his emphasis made clear that the process of political realignment in the country, which has propelled him to power, would be consolidated. "One of the priorities of my Government will be Centre-state relations," he said. An emphasis on social justice, housing for the poor, agriculture and irrigation would be the other priorities, Gowda said. "And the fact that a poor farmer's son can become the prime minister only proves that Indian democracy is thriving," he noted, playing up the 'common man persona' which he seems to have decided will serve him best in his stint at South Block.

And while Gowda received a further boost with the CPI's appeal to the other Left parties to participate in the coalition government, problems remain. The UF's all-important common minimum programme "is ready but will be released on June 4 because our steering committee has not had the time to go through it," said spokesman Jaipal Reddy. But there are niggling problems here, despite the fact that both the common minimum programme and the economic policy are not likely to contain any minute details.

So an 'informal group' of the UF—comprising Naidu, Sitaram Yechuri of the CPI(M), D. Raja of the CPI, Chidambaram and Reddy—has been studying the proposals sent in by various parties on the common economic programme. There are many areas of agreement—especially 'in principle'—which the Left parties choose to highlight: discouraging foreign investment in the consumer sector; resumption of the State's primary role in health education and transport; referring all Ayodhya-related issues to the Supreme Court under Article 138(2) to make compliance obligatory for all parties to the dispute; institution of a Lok Pal with the prime minister and all chief ministers under its purview; 33 per cent reservation for women in Parliament and state legislatures; strengthening the public distribution system and keeping prices under control; and a comprehensive review of Centre-state relations.

But contentious issues—such as reservations in the private sector, further land reforms, withdrawing amendments to India's patent laws in their present form and a ceiling on foreign equity participation—remain. In fact, according to members of the smaller team that is formulating the parameters of the economic policy of the new Government, "polemics may dominate the debate but each issue will have to taken on its merits. There is unlikely to be a radical tilt either to the Left or the Right and neither the Congress nor the Left will be upset too much. " Therefore, the emphasis is on what can be broadly be termed 'development', says a senior member of the coalition.

 On the other hand, the uneasy alliance between the UF and the Congress still shows no signs of being even a semi-permanent arrangement despite the personal contact between Gowda and the Congress leadership. The Congress units of many states where a UF constituent is their main opposition have already stepped up pressure on Rao to lay down conditions for Congress support. UF constituents are having their own problems, with a section of the TDP(N) led by N.T. Rama Rao's son Harikrishna coming out against Naidu's decision to take part in a Government supported by the Congress. And Biju Patnaik is toying with the idea of launching his own regional party and some North-eastern leaders are said to be thinking along similar lines. Gowda's arch-rival, former Karnataka chief minister R.K. Hegde, has already succeeded in getting Patel elected Karnataka chief minister. Then, there are the hardliners in the UF who want to ensure that Ra 'gets what's coming to him' in the StKitt's case and the Suraj Mandal case and that there is no reining in the investigative agencies under pressure from the Congress.

 Another decision that the Gowda Government will have to take within the next few days will be on the President's address to Parliament (which was prepared by the BJP). But that is in the future. For the present, Gowda seems to have realised that being Prime Minister at the head of what may become a path-breaking federal coalition could well exemplify "Indian democracy in action", but is going to be no bed of roses. In fact, the BJP's tactic of highlighting the remarks Gowda is purported to have made in June 1995 describing the RSS as a "spotless organisation" seems to have brought out the fighter in him. "I know what the BJP is trying. You wait. I will answer them when I reply to the confidence motion in Parliament," he told Outlook on May 28. That Marquis of Queensbury rules do not apply in politics—and especially when one is Prime Minister—is a lesson Deve Gowda seems to have learnt quickly.