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Even as the army battalions took charge, a shaken BJP leadership in Delhi sent out desperate messages to Raje, imploring her to "control" the situation. BJP president Rajnath Singh spoke to her on several occasions. There was panic at the party headquarters in Delhi.
The BJP leadership's anxiety is understandable. The present crisis threatens to upset the party's political calculations since it may find it difficult to keep the crucial Gujjar and Meena—the other major tribal grouping—votebanks intact in Rajasthan. When it comes to numbers, both communities matter in an election. Gujjars make up 8 per cent of the population, while Meenas, who were given ST status in 1954, account for 11 per cent. Should the BJP favour one community, it would lose the other's votes. With elections due in the state next year it is a tightrope walk for the party.
Gujjar leaders point out that though the community may be less in numbers, the political clout they command is considerable as they are concentrated in key pockets. The Meenas, on the other hand, are spread out across the state and, the argument goes, they can influence lesser number of seats. Proclaims a senior Gujjar leader, "We can easily influence the election outcome in at least 74 of the 200 assembly seats and the BJP is aware of the fact." So far, the Meenas have overshadowed other tribal communities in the state. They have also established a major presence in the central services, besides dominating the state's administrative machinery. There are 250 IAS and around 270 IPS officers from the community.
In contrast, the Gujjars, who have been demanding ST status since 1971, only managed to be declared OBCs in 1993. But they did not benefit much from that as they were muscled out by the more powerful Jats who were granted like status in Rajasthan. Points out Brham Singh of the BJP and a core member of the Gujjar Arakshan Sangharsh Samiti (GASS): "We have only one Gujjar IAS officer and none in the IPS or the state administration. There are no doctors, educators, or administrators. Most of the plum posts have been cornered by the Meenas. We have no access to education or jobs and we have been reduced to looking after livestock." What has added fuel to the Gujjar ire is the fact that the additional SP who ordered the firing at Dausa was from the Meena community.
But what has upset the community most is the failure of the BJP to deliver on its 2003 election promise to get it ST status. Gujjar leaders say they took great heart in the fact that Raje's son, Dushyant, a Lok Sabha MP from Jhalawar, had married into a Gujjar family. Says Colonel Kirodi SinghBaisela, chairman of GASS, spearheading the current agitation: "She (Raje) told us that she was our samdhan as her son had married a Gujjar girl from Madhya Pradesh. We fell for the gimmick and voted for her and now we are paying the price for it."
It was after waiting for nearly two years that members of the Gujjar Mahasabha went on an indefinite hunger strike in 2005 to press for their demands. It was then the state home minister Gulab Chand Kataria announced the formation of a six-member committee to look into the issue. But Gujjar leaders allege the committee has done nothing. Says Kirodi Singh: "Little has happened since then. For us, this is the battle to the finish. The last time we voted for the BJP but this time we will ensure its defeat." Some Gujjar leaders hold out the threat that the community will move en masse to Mayawati's bsp.
On May 30, Kirodi Singh, perched on a tractor amidst a crowd of nearly two lakh Gujjars in Patoli village, kept repeating his four demands as a pre-condition to further talks. "The state has to send a recommendation to the Centre for recognising us as a tribal community, it must award Rs 10 lakh compensation for those killed, register an fir against the SP who ordered the firing and finally release all the Gujjars who have been detained illegally in the state since our agitation started."
Looking to capitalise on the situation, the local Congress leadership has already started making all the right noises. Sachin Pilot, the MP from Dausa and a Gujjar leader himself, has already demanded the CM should step down. "The BJP government should either accept the fact that it will do nothing for the Gujjars or send the recommendation to the Centre at the earliest," Pilot told Outlook. According to him, the Gujjars met all the parameters that are required for a community to be included as a scheduled tribe.
The present agitation may be calmed with more promises. But the issue is unlikely to die down soon. What was seen as a political masterstroke that weaned the community from the Congress in the 2003 elections is now backfiring on the BJP.
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