Mate Check

Congress/UPA

• It was meant to be Rahul Gandhi's election. But only Varun Gandhi seems to be in the picture. And that too as the BJP's Hindutva icon.
• The Congress has defied political logic, taking on its staunchest secular ally, Laloo Prasad Yadav, in Bihar. With Ram Vilas Paswan also out, the party is left without any friends in the state.
• In electorally crucial UP, the Congress has inexplicably made an enemy out of a potential valuable ally, the Samajwadi Party.
• The party appears to be cutting its nose to spite its face. Congress strategists, though, are celebrating and claim it is the only way to rebuild the party.
• In Tamil Nadu, Ramadoss's PMK is on the brink of quitting the UPA and going with the AIADMK. If it does, it may lead to an upset; the electoral arithmetic of the Congress and the DMK could go for a six.
• Once friends, the Telangana Rashtra Samiti is now a UPA rival in Andhra Pradesh.
• A seat-sharing arrangement has been worked out with the NCP in Maharashtra. But Sharad Pawar's secret pact with the Shiv Sena still holds.
• The IPL moving out of India because the home ministry said it could not provide security has further strained Pawar's relationship with the Congress. There is also talk of the NCP campaigning for the SP in UP.

• L.K. Advani had declared that the BJP would not take a hard line. But Varun Gandhi's "chop off their hands/sterilise them" speech could overshadow any "moderate" rhetoric.
• The BJP's Gandhi is a fish bone stuck in the saffron party's throat. The BJP can neither spit it out nor swallow it; defending him also exacts a price, arousing disgust in some sections of society and alienating allies.
• Often touted as the ideal ally, the Biju Janata Dal has walked out of the NDA, forcing the alliance to remap its strategy for Orissa.
• The BJP's election strategist and manager Arun Jaitley has openly admitted to problems with party president Rajnath Singh. Continues to stay away from some meetings.
• The Shiv Sena has firmed up its alliance with the BJP, but the Sena leadership has also gone on record stating that it prefers a Maratha as a PM. A tacit understanding with former Sena-baiter Sharad Pawar?
• The Janata Dal (U) in Bihar remains the BJP's crucial ally. But the saffron party's backing of Varun Gandhi has upset Nitish Kumar and certainly gives impetus to those who suggest that the JD(U) could leave the NDA post-elections.

• The fear of Mayawati and her growing clout plagues everyone. In fact, there is a theory that the one grand purpose of all formations is to exclude Mayawati from any arrangement.
• Regional satraps getting together and forming a government is what the UPA/NDA and the middle class fear the most.
• Both formations fear that if they individually do not cross the 150 mark they will be at the mercy of regional parties.
• The Left may be losing ground. But it is still the driving force behind the Third Front and certainly could be part of any post-election coalition of small and regional forces.
• A post-poll front of all regional parties including those currently with the UPA/NDA is another possibility.
• No one's sure how individual parties/fronts will perform in the redrawn constituencies post-delimitation.

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