AT 3.20 pm on January 3, Congress President Sitaram Kesri received a special message at his Purana Qila residence from Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda felicitating him on his election as Congress Parliamentary Party (CPP) leader. What was remarkable about the timing was the fact that the message came 45 minutes before the official Congress announcement, indicating that Gowda had read the writing on the wall and was alive to the new power centre within the Congress.
In the end, Kesri's election through 'consensus' brought an anticlimactic end to a hectic fortnight. The drama set off by the renewed demand for the one-man one-post norm that was intended to hinder Kesri's chances died down quietly when Rajesh Pilot withdrew from the contest. And Kesri terminated the challenge from the dissidents—regrouped as "the forum for inner party democracy"—by winning over Sharad Pawar. In a quid pro quo, Pawar was declared Congress floor leader in the Lok Sabha, establishing him as Kesri's political heir-apparent.
The fact that 189 MPs stood behind Kesri and only 22 MPs demanded a secret ballot indicated the respective strengths of Kesri and his rivals. So much so that Pilot was quick to realise that he could not successfully raise his voice for inner party democracy, given the "unreliable crowd" backing him. Said he: "I wanted to fight within the party, and not outside it. I have certain values, and I, at every available occasion, will stand for them."
Of course, Pilot's defeat was a foregone conclusion, but what makes Kesri's formal election as CPP leader crucial is the fear it has injected in the ruling United Front (UF). Simultaneously, it has raised hopes in Congress circles that it will not be long before the 78-year-old freedom-fighter from Bihar will stake his own claim to form the government. Speculation that the wily Kesri prefers to play down for the moment. "It is wrong to say that the Congress is going to withdraw support immediately. There are people who want to create uncertainty in the country. My foremost duty is to strengthen the party," Kesri told the CPP. In fact, his decision to nominate Pawar as the party's floor leader in the Lok Sabha was an olive branch to the Gowda Government, given the Maratha leader's "UF-friendly" image.
But the Congress Working Committee (CWC) under Kesri has already made it clear that support to the UF is not unconditional and that it will be reviewed periodically. Which means that the Congress will continue to explore opportunities to criti-cise the Gowda Government and withdraw support at the appropriate time. However, the fact remains that a prerequisite for such a move would be the Congress' ability to muster the support of at least 220 Lok Sabha MPs. (This assumes that the Left would not vote against the Congress as it would mean going along with the BJP.) So, Kesri's statement indicates a reprieve for Gowda until the Congress manages to consolidate its position by getting its splinter groups and some UF coalition members around to the idea of Congress forming the government. But insists Kesri protege Satyajit Gaekwad, an MP and Youth Congress president: "It is the beginning of the countdown for the UF Government."
For his part, a jittery Gowda has been quick to replace P.V. Narasimha Rao's 9, Motilal Nehru residence with 7AB, Purana Qila Road as his new pilgrimage destination. But given Kesri's current attitude towards Rao, who played a crucial role in having Kesri elected as his successor on September 23, the UF is not convinced that Gowda's frequent meetings with Kesri will curb his prime ministerial ambitions. "Kesri the rootless has become Kesri the ruthless, going by what he did to Rao," says a senior UF functionary, indicating that Kesri's statement at the CPP meeting has not assuaged apprehensions in the ruling party.
Neither has his track record of late. Kesri used his first three-and-a-half months as Congress president to consolidate his position within the party and overcome minor resistance to his takeover as CPP leader. This period also saw attempts to rebuild the Congress' secular and pro-minority image—first by apologising to the Muslims for the demolition of the Babri Masjid and then by inducting more Muslims and OBCs as party functionaries. Kesri obliquely blamed Rao for the current state of the party. "We have lost whenever we have drifted from our ideals. We have regained power every time we have been able to convince people that we are back on track," he said.
This was followed by a purge of Rao loyalists from the CWC and then Rao's exit as CPP leader. So much so that while quitting, Rao said tamely: "I complied with the party president's directive to step down." Jagannath Mishra was the only leader of standing to protest till the very end: "Party norms and the Constitution have been given a go-bye, both on getting Rao's resignation and electing his successor. My protest is based on a certain principle." Mishra shuttled between Rao and Pilot, assessing their strength and charting out their strategy. But once numbers failed them, Rao called a halt.
After being elected CPP leader, Kesri began his yatra to the treasury benches in Parliament with a visit to Rajghat. Said a party general secretary: "After all, we are the largest secular party. If the Government's secular credentials come under a cloud, we cannot remain silent. That is the sole reason or basis of our supporting this Government and its deviation from the secular path will end this arrangement." Practically speaking, the Congress, with 143 MPs in the Lok Sabha, would not like to withdraw support just to bring down the Government and enforce a mid-term poll. It would first try to ensure support. In fact, Kesri is said to have told both Sonia Gandhi and Congress(T) leaders that the delay in readmission to the party was not intended to humiliate them; he was only waiting for his election as CPP leader. And after the admission of the Congress(T), the Congress intends to expedite talks with the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC).
The Congress(T)'s merger would take the party's strength to 147, the TMC is said to have told Kesri that there are two major hitches. One, since it would not like to snap its alliance with the DMK, the Congress should first win over the DMK by reiterating its commitment for more autonomy to the states. Two, in the event of a Congress regime being sworn in, the eight berths that Tamil Nadu occupies in the Gowda cabinet, which includes important portfolios like finance and petroleum, should not be taken away.
With the Left parties, including the CPI(M), in favour of greater autonomy to states, the Congress is likely to constitute a committee to go into the question of Centre-state relations in order to respond favourably to the DMK precondition.
In the North, Bihar Chief Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav, who is also the Janata Dal president, and Defence Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav have given enough indication to Kesri that they have no love lost for Gowda and would not be averse to helping 'chacha' don the mantle. With Laloo, Mulayam and the DMK-TMC alliance behind it, the Congress would have the support of an additional 80 MPs, taking it beyond the 220 figure it is aspiring for.
According to a senior Congress leader, this magic figure would ensure that the Congress would run a smooth government. "We know that the Left parties, with 54 members, will not support the Congress. But they will continue to abstain on crucial votes, which will only help the (Congress) government, as they cannot go together with the BJP." This minimum support is also important because the Congress is wary of President Shankar Dayal Sharma, who is said to be concerned about prospects of political instability .
Kesri has also postponed the March 25 organisational elections. With a fresh membership drive on by his new loyalists, Kesri's confirmation as Congress president by the AICC is already assured.
As for Laloo and Mulayam, they are also fascinated by Kesri's pro-OBC image. Says Congress spokesperson V.N. Gadgil: "Kesri belongs to the social forces which have been getting aggressively conscious about their share in the power structure." Incidentally, Kesri's pro-social change stance was cited to proclaim him the most suitable person during the CWC's five-hour-long meeting on January 1.
Behind this was the move to convince similar social forces and their leaders—Laloo, Mulayam, besides Karunanidhi and Moopanar—that the Congress' concern for their constituencies is genuine. However, Kesri's move to rope in the TDP, despite Chandrababu Naidu's growing rift with the Prime Minister, has not taken off. Given the two-party set-up in Andhra Pradesh, the TDP and the Congress are bitter enemies and local equations have come in the way of any fruitful negotiation.
While everything so far has gone as per Kesri's gameplan right from his takeover as Congress president, Rao's gradual marginalisation and exit as CPP leader, his unanimous election will hold him from going into the much-needed purge in the AICC set-up and at the state level.
And there have been other shakeouts in the Congress, too. Pawar's appointment as Lok Sabha leader has heralded the marginalisation of fellow Maharashtrian and archrival S.B. Chavan, who is Rajya Sabha leader. Chavan is likely to be replaced by Man-mohan Singh. And there are indications that A.R. Antulay might replace Sudhakar Rao Naik as an AICC general secretary.
At the state level, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Digvijay Singh faces a threat of revolt once again led by Deputy Chief Minister Subhash Yadav, while in West Bengal Priya Ranjan Das Munshi—a Pawar protege—is the new aspirant for the PCC chief's post. In Uttar Pradesh, as well as Madhya Pradesh, the Congress(T)'s formal merger is sure to upset the party's present equation which might also result in the exit of the present PCC chiefs.
However, like in the past, the most effective elixir for the Congress is the whiff of getting closer to power. Kesri has given the party that. But the apparently single minded quest for power at this stage could frustrate renewed hope for the party's resurrection after Rao's exit. If government formation becomes the sole driving force, Kesri could end up undoing his achievements in reviving the fortunes of the party.
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