AS the sun rises over 10 Anne Marg, official residence of Bihar chief minister Rabri Devi and the de facto ruler Laloo Prasad Yadav, the political priorities of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) come into focus. To keep the BJP out of power, Laloo says, he is willing to do anything. And for the BJP to form a government at the Centre, it is necessary to win bulk seats in Bihar.
Ostensibly, however, Laloo claims that he is against the use of strong-arm tactics and will depend upon the forces of social justice to see through the BJP-Samata Party gameplan. As a lesson in political correctness, this tactic is without a parallel—and was very much in evidence on February 16 when polling to 34 constituencies took place in Bihar.
And there were complaints lodged with the Election Commission of widespread electoral malpractices from all 34 constituencies. Within hours of the poll being completed formally, Janata Dal chief Sharad Yadav at Madhepura, Congress nominee Krishna Sahi at Begusarai, BJP candidate C.P. Thakur at Patna and many others like them were sitting on dharnas before their respective returning officers protesting against largescale rigging and booth-capturing. So what Laloo looked to have squandered comprehensively by way of popular mandate will now be achieved by a clever juxtaposition of constitutional misuse and old fashioned strong-arm tactics.
Indeed, allegations of booth-capturing and rigging gained credence on February 20, when in a most unusual move, the Election Commission cancelled the February 16 poll in Patna. The EC said it took the decision following a report by commission secretary K.J. Rao, who was deputed to inquire into complaints of malpractices. This sparked off speculation that a similar fate would befall the Madhepura election. The commission also deferred repoll in 584 booths of nine constituencies scheduled for February 24.
There is little doubt as to where the popular mandate in Bihar lies. The mood has been positively anti-Laloo. His once infallible combination of OBC and Muslims is not as strong as it used to be. Acutely aware of his own drawbacks, Laloo has introduced a new combination this time—Yadavs, Muslims and Rajputs, thanks to alliances with SJP leader Chandra Shekhar, the co-opting of Rajput chieftain Anand Mohan, who everybody thought was virulently anti-Laloo until the elections were announced, and a series of local level arrangements.
The mass rigging and violence have shocked everyone. In a statement, 16 prominent persons, including former MP Devendra Prasad Singh and former Patna mayor K.N. Sahay, attacked the farce of "blatant rowdyism, show of muscle power and dereliction of duties".
The BJP-Samata alliance in normal situations would be a surefire draw at the box office, with the combination of upper castes expected to go with the BJP and huge segments of the OBC sticking with the Samata Party. Clearly, the former Bihar chief minister is more apprehensive about the Samata Party emerging as his real threat rather than the BJP, which does not necessarily share the same mass base as he does. And he makes no bones about it. "Every outsider (from Bihar) contesting here will sit on a dharna," he told Outlook, rather ominously, referring to Sharad Yadav's dharna at Madhepura in protest against rigging there.
Samata chief George Fernandes, who is contesting from Nalanda, has already called upon the Election Commission to be vigilant in view of what happened on February 16. Nitish Kumar, Samata leader and the man who Laloo really fears, is up against Bihar minister Vijay Krishna in Barh. Only his political stature as well as a huge Kurmi presence will ensure that he wins, but even that may not be too easy.
Ministers in the UF government who have assiduously cultivated their constituencies are sweating. Chaturanan Mishra, Union agriculture minister fighting from Madhubani on a CPI ticket, is visibly nervous and called Prime Minister I.K. Gujral last week to his constituency, impressing upon the of ficials in attendance, that voting should be fair.
ON the other hand, Union railways minister Ram Vilas Paswan from Hajipur says he is confident of a win because of the work undertaken by him for the constituency. To him goes the credit of setting up a new zone in Hajipur; a Rs 600-crore railway bridge on the Ganges from Patna; a diesel shed in Samastipur; another railway bridge in Munger; new Rajdhanis between Delhi and Patna and so on. "I am prepared. The people are with me. I have helped them, irrespective of their caste," Paswan says, as he travels in a specially reconstructed rath in a constituency which has sent him to Parliament four times.
Enter Laloo and his realpolitik and the equation changes rapidly. For every 'rival' contesting in Bihar, Laloo has his handpicked minister sitting in the constituency. Against Paswan he has Ilyas Hussain; against Sharad, he used Ravinder Charan Yadav to good effect; against Nitish he has already pitched Vijay Krishna; against Chaturanan he has put up Rajkumar Mahaseth. That is not all. MLAs have been asked to go back to their respective constituencies and 'ensure' that the RJD wins.
In the prelude to rigging that took place on February 16, the violence and the means used were something straight out of a civil war situation. In Palamau, a police party was killed in a landmine blast. In Bokaro, a BSF personnel on duty was killed in another mine blast, while in Madhepura Samata candidate N.K. Singh has listed a total of at least 800 polling booths where rigging was total and voting percentages spiralled up to 90 per cent. In state capital Patna, where polls have now been countermanded, armed criminals openly went to the booths, fired in the air and drove off. Whatever else happened, the voters were certainly scared away. K.P. Sinha of the Samata Party points out: "If this is what happened in the state capital, it is difficult to imagine what may have happened in the rural areas."
With the Election Commission hinting at gross irregularities in Madhepura and Patna, can rigging become an issue nationally? According to Laloo, it cannot because when the opposition talks about rigging "it is an insult to the voter who has cast his lot with us". The electioneering itself has become more focussed. Candidates opposed to Laloo Yadav are warning their voters to watch out for the next phase of polling in the state.
The mood in the BJP is much more upbeat than could be imagined in a situation where rigging has taken place on such a large scale. Says the young BJP MP from Chapra, Rajiv Pratap Rudy: "Our campaign is going on as usual. The meetings are being received very well. The enthusiasm of voters has to be seen to be believed." Quite understandably, Laloo is keen to win the Chapra seat and make a point that the issue could be clinched against the BJP. Says Bihar leader of opposition Sushil Modi: "Rigging is not new to Laloo. We are used to it. In our favour is the huge turnout that has turned out to vote for us."
Caste equations, always referred to in the context of Bihar, may turn out to be a little more unpredictable. While the Muslims are regarded as en bloc voters, it is a much too simplified situation. In Darbhanga for instance, RJD candidate A.A. Fatmi is battling the Janata Dal's Ghulam Sarwar who has used the 'backward' Muslim card to unsettle Fatmi, who had to request Laloo to make an appearance. Laloo told people there that there was no point in dividing Muslims as it would only help the BJP. While the Rajputs could vote for the BJP in Chapra, in Madhepura they went along with what Anand Mohan had to say. While Bhumiars are generally going to vote against Laloo, in Mokameh they will listen to the dictats of state minister Dilip Singh.
The stars of the elections have been doing the rounds. Sonia Gandhi's rally in Ranchi was a flop. In Purnea it was received well, as she was in a series of rallies in other parts of the state. The BJP has roped in star campaigner Shatrughan Sinha, who is much in demand. Not surprisingly, Sitaram Kesri has not been invited by the Congress to campaign. But then the Congress itself has been more dependent on Laloo than Sonia to pull their chestnuts out of the fire. According to indications available, the Congress is well poised to get more than the two seats it won last time.
According to observers, a lot is going to depend upon what happens in the next round of polling, because if more polls are countermanded or cancelled than those already on the cards, the political players involved would have a battle on their hands. As it is, last week repolling was held at 238 booths in 13 of the 21 constituencies which went to the polls on February 16. But if the election in Madhepura is countermanded, it may take much longer to resolve the ensuing political stalemate.
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