It's Swinging And Seaming

Party sources say he had made a quick, quiet visit to Bhubaneshwar in early March, and spent time with BJD chief and Orissa chief minister Naveen Patnaik in a one-on-one meeting, where they ostensibly discussed strategies and decided on the Bhubaneshwar joint rally.

Pawar’s gameplan for Elections ’09 is rather simple. He wants to be in power, preferably as the prime minister or deputy PM, and will align with any party or grouping that offers him such a chance. As part of this strategy, he was talking to the Left even when political talk centred on the two major alliances led by the Congress and the BJP. Sources say he had spoken to a few other regional leaders as well.

Congress leaders in Maharashtra believe that Pawar spells "bad news" for the party’s prospects in this election. Says Vilasrao Deshmukh, the previous chief minister and currently campaign manager: "My recommendation was that the Congress go it alone." Party national spokesperson Veerappa Moily wondered, as reports of Pawar’s joining the Bhubaneshwar rally came in, how he would reconcile "this one foot in the upa and the other in the Third Front".

The other bit of the Pawar strategy is in Maharashtra, and has to do with his traditional rival, Bal Thackeray. After breaking ice with him in mid-2008, Pawar had his senior leader Chhagan Bhujbal withdraw an old case against Thackeray, on grounds that the Sena supremo was too old and ill. Thackeray responded by promoting Pawar at every conceivable opportunity, particularly in his Marathi daily Saamna. Courtesy calls, phone calls, unabashed personal certificates were followed by a secret meeting between Pawar and Sena working president Uddhav Thackeray in February at a five-star hotel in New Delhi. The two reached a pact to support each other covertly in the election.

Cementing a Sena-NCP alliance would not have been easy. "There are inherent contradictions between them," says B. Venkatesh Kumar, political analyst and director, Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Contemporary Studies. "But they are driven by their desperate desire for power in Maharashtra. Sena will help Pawar at the Centre and NCP will prop up a Sena CM." The state assembly polls, due later this year, are an important part of the Pawar plot. Internal calculations in both parties show that the Sena or NCP could be the two largest entities, followed by the Congress and BJP in the 288-member assembly.

Sena and NCP leaders, for the record, rubbish any secret understanding. But off it, they admit to accommodation and understanding. "It will be difficult to grab power along with the BJP, we can’t go with the Congress," a senior Sena leader told Outlook. "NCP is our best bet, and it suits them too. The LS is only a dress rehearsal."

Both the Sena and NCP will contest the 48 Lok Sabha seats with their respective alliance partners—the BJP and the Congress. The division stands thus: NCP, 22; Congress, 26 (including one from each to a Republican Party candidate); Shiv Sena, 26 and BJP, 22. Buried in this division are about 10 seats where the Sena and NCP don’t face each other, and can offer tacit, informal support. In Mumbai, for instance, there are three such seats—Mumbai North, Mumbai Northeast and Mumbai Northwest—where the NCP could work against the Congress, and the Sena could silently trip up its partner BJP. Then, there are seats where each has ensured "strong, winnable candidates" were put up against the other’s ally.

Having the Sena on his side means an additional 12-15 LS seats for Pawar, which means at least outside support, in the event that a non-Congress, non-BJP government can be cobbled together. This helps Pawar bring more numbers to the negotiating table on May 16. If the NCP-Sena affections come out in the open, it implies an immediate re-alignment at the state level too.