It is said that if the monsoons are good and the US economy recovers, theIndian economy will revive. What happens if the EU economy slips?
Manmohan Singh: In my statement yesterday I did mention that allavailable indicators for 2009 point to a deceleration in the US economy, in theEuropean Union economies and, therefore, one can say that the global environmentfor the development of the countries of the Third World has undergone a sharpdeterioration. Our exports have suffered, capital flows from abroad havedeclined, international bank lending to the developing countries has declinedand therefore the challenge before us is to sustain and revive the growthmomentum which we have built up in the last five years, notwithstanding thedeterioration in the international environment for development.
It is not going to be easy but I am convinced that India's savings ratewhich is as high as 35 %, with a normal capital output ratio of 4:1 we should beable to sustain, with a little bit extra effort, a growth rate of about 8 to 9percent, notwithstanding the difficulties on the international front.. So Iremain confident that India will come out of this crisis stronger but the roadahead is also going to be a difficult road to traverse.
UPA I and UPA II, any change in your agenda?
Manmohan Singh: I have always viewed that our role as a government is toenable our country to get rid of chronic poverty, ignorance and disease whichstill afflict millions and millions of our people. We have made some importantgains in the last five years. We managed to impart to our economy a strongergrowth momentum, we strengthened the forces which make for inclusive social andeconomic development, we have put in place social safety nets which soften theharsh edges of extreme poverty substantially. But this is a long and arduousjourney and our challenge is to take full advantage of the instrumentalitieswhich are now in place for inclusive growth to plug loopholes, to reduceleakages and to ensure that these instruments become more effective instrumentsof social and economic change, accelerated growth, more inclusive developmentand more emphasis on rural development and agriculture. So it is a continuationof the journey we undertook for five years, with renewed commitment and withrenewed determination even though we must recognize that the internationalenvironment is not as supportive as we had imagined at one time.
There apparently is an impasse with Pakistan, is there anything that Indiacan do to break that impasse?
Manmohan Singh: I have often said India and Pakistan are closeneighbours, we can choose our friends but we have no choice with regard to ourneighbours. I have always believed that for India to realize its developmentambitions, to realize its place in the comity of nations, requires to work withits neighbours to bring about peace and amity in South Asia. And we will do allthat is necessary to resolve all outstanding issues that have bedevilled India'srelations with Pakistan. But it requires credible action on the part of Pakistanto deal with terrorist elements directing their energy to disrupt anddestabilize our economy and polity.
So I look forward to the meeting with Prime Minister Gilani for an exchange ofviews and I do hope that out of that meeting we will have a renewedreaffirmation on the part of Pakistan that they will bring the perpetrators ofthe Mumbai massacre to justice, that they will not allow Pakistani territory tobe used for terrorist acts directed against our country. If they do that we arewilling to walk more than half the distance to normalize our relations.
IT and textiles have been badly affected by the global slowdown, do you seethe situation getting worse or getting better?
Manmohan Singh: As far as IT is concerned, the world financial system wasthe greatest source of demand for our IT services. I think things arestabilizing -- the global financial system seems to have reached a new plateau.It is not a high growth plateau; so I do expect there should be some improvementin the international environment for IT.
And also with regard to exports of textiles and garments, I do feel that if theworld economy can effectively stand up against protectionist sentiments, thedemand pressures can move in the reverse direction as well. It is also possibleto do more at home to create demand for IT services. I think given the egovernance processes in our own country, we have a vast unexplored market and wecan take full advantage of the global slowdown, the Indian InformationTechnology industry need not face such a bleak future.
You have been talking about the need for reforms in the UN structurespecially the Security Council, how do you feel your views have been received byother leaders ?
Manmohan Singh: There is today growing support that the internationalstructures and systems which were put in place soon after the end of the WW II,they are not reflective of the current realities of the global structures andglobal equations. There is a growing support for the view that the SecurityCouncil membership should be enlarged both in the permanent category members aswell as in the non permanent category members. And countries like India have alegitimate claim to be considered for permanent membership of the SecurityCouncil.
But having said that let me also say that International relations in the finalsense are power relationships. And no body gives up power willingly; those whohave the power want to hold on, so I don't think an easy solution is in sight.It will have to be a long drawn out struggle and I do believe that we have everyreason to feel that in the long run our views will prevail.
Zardari se roos me mile the ab Gilani se mil rahe hai, kya is beech kuchprogress hua? Doosri baath dunia ke leadron ko Pakisatan ke ooper dabhav dalneke liya aapne baath kiya? [After meeting Zardari in Russia, you are nowgoing to meet Gilani. Has there been any progress in this period? Secondly, haveyou talked to world leaders asking them to put pressure on Pakistan?]
Manmohan Singh: Dekhiye, meri jo Zardari sahib se bath hui thi, uskibaad hamare high commissioner ki bath cheeth hui hai, ISI chief ke saath hui hai,Foreign Office ke saath hui hai. Unhonne kuch sujaav di hai, jaankari di hai kiwoh Mumbai main joh massacre hua tha unke apradhiyon ko dhand dene keliye kyakuch kar rahe hain. Abhi hamein umeed hai ki kuch aur woh shayad is disha mainaage badenge. Yeh umeed hai aur is umeed ke saath Prime Minister Gilani sahib kesaath baath karoonga.
Doosri cheez main yeh kahna chahta hun ki jahan bhi meri bath hui hai, G8 G5 aurhar ek forum mein mai bharat ke jo vichaar hai ke ham terrorism ki victim hai,25-30 saal se terrorism hamara desh ko destabilize karne ki koshish kar raha hai.Aur iskeliye koun log zimevar hai uske evidence bhi hai. Joh duniya ki thamamleaderon ke meri yahi appeal rahthi hai ki woh Pakistan par is baath par dabavdalen ki woh terrorism ke rasthe ko chodkar dosthi ke rasthe par bharath kesaath aage baden.