Going For Broke?

AIADMK general secretary Jayalalitha Jayaram is no C.V. Raman or Chandrasekhar but political circles in Chennai are grappling to understand "the Jayalalitha Limit and Jayalalitha Effect" which have put the Vajpayee government in a spot. The Jayalalitha Limit has a very low threshold and its cardinal character is impulsiveness. No one knows exactly how soon she will reach her limit of BJP tolerance. The Jayalalitha Effect has three major characteristics: to erase the dividing line between the ruling party and the ruling government; to bridge the difference between the functioning of the government, executive, legislature and judiciary; and finally, to make an individual's wish the nation's command.

The AIADMK is not only keeping the Central government on edge with veiled threats of withdrawing support, but it is also embarassing the BJP by demanding the resignation of all chargesheeted ministers in the Central government, including home minister L.K. Advani. So we have ministers from the ruling front issuing threats to each other. What is worse, the AIADMK is simultaneously trying to work out a deal with Sharad Pawar. Whether this is just a ploy to pressurise the BJP is not clear.

However, AIADMK leaders are only too keen to provide the arithmetic of a Congress-led coalition. They point out that the numbers game would come into play should Jayalalitha feel that the BJP is not complying with her demands. The calculation is: the Congress can muster up 196 MPs. If the AIADMK and its allies, numbering 27, join the front, the tally goes up to 223. The Left Front with 48 seats is expected to support a Congress-led government to keep the BJP out of power. Which means the tally would be 271, reducing the BJP and its allies to a minority. Hence, the Hobson's choice before the BJP: either to break the other parties to increase its support base or to succumb to all the demands of Jayalalitha.

Right now her sole agenda is the dismissal of the DMK government. And she wants it to happen before the Election Commission issues the notification for the Rajya Sabha elections from Tamil Nadu in the second week of May. At present, the DMK has no representation in the Upper House. But given its strength in the state assembly, it is certain that the DMK will win five seats, with the sixth one going to the Tamil Maanila Congress. It also means that minister of state for finance R.K. Kumar, a crucial man in the government for the party, will not be renominated.

Unlike her first protest where she delayed her letter of support to Atal Behari Vajpayee for a week, her present sulking bout has been more ominous and volatile. Her irritation stems from the fact that when Tamil Nadu chief minister M. Karunanidhi visited New Delhi two weeks ago, Vajpayee and the home minister L.K. Advani were more than cordial in their reception, with the former asserting that he would not use Article 356 to dismiss the DMK government.

And Union agriculture minister S.S. Barnala expressed total support to the DMK government and even offered 100 MW of electricity from Punjab to Tamil Nadu to tide over the present power crisis. This, just days after Union power minister Rangarajan Kumaramangalam's promise to Jayalalitha that he would use the power situation to create problems for the state government.

Meanwhile, on the legal front there were two major developments. A relative of Sasikala often referred to as Reserve Bank, Bhaskaran, was arrested by the CBI. He was the conduit for various forex irregularities committed by Sasikala and her family. At the same time, a special court rejected the petition of Union surface transport minister Sedapatti Muthiah and declared there is a prima facie case against him and his family. Shell-shocked, Jayalalitha asked Muthiah to resign and started consulting her trusted think tank to decide future strategy.

A three-pronged strategy was devised. First, to use the Union ministers close to her to show Karunanidhi in poor light. Then step up pressure for changing the Chief Justice of the Chennai high court, Liberhan, who has refused to toe Jayalalitha's line and replace the standing counsels for the government with her loyalists. Third, to deny any moral high ground that the BJP may project to differentiate itself from its allies.

IN keeping with this plan, Kumaramang-alam started accusing the state government for not anticipating the power shortage in Tamil Nadu. The DMK government has worked out plans for 20 short gestation power plants which should go on stream in another 18 months. Karunanidhi had to come down heavily on Kumaramangalam for levelling charges without any basis. The other Union minister from Jayalalitha's 27 to join the chorus was Union petroleum minister Vazhapadi K. Ramamurthy, who started interacting directly with Tamil Nadu officials and bypassing the state government.

Union law minister Thambidurai has brought in 33 new standing counsels for the Union government—all of them AIADMK members, most of whom have at some time or the other appeared on behalf of Jayalalitha and Sasikala. He is also trying to transfer the Chief Justice of Chennai high court. These moves have already snowballed into a major crisis with the entire advocate lobby protesting against the "unethical behavior of the law minister that would undermine the independence of the judiciary".

Meanwhile, on April 14, the BJP leadership asked Jayalalitha whether she really wanted C. Sreenivasan, an MP from Dindugul, as the replacement for Muthiah as there were two cases pending against him at the Padmanabapuram Magistrate court. This proved to be the Limit. Jayalalitha immediately convened her party's executive next day to discuss what should be done to bend the BJP.

She demanded the immediate dismissal of the DMK government and declared that the PM's observation that he was satisfied with the steps taken by Karunanidhi following the Coimbatore blasts was made because "Mr Vajpayee has not been properly informed." Then the AIADMK chief dropped her bomb shell: "I demand the resignation of all the Union ministers who have been chargesheeted or have FIRs against them. Failing which the PM should ask them to quit." Those on her hit list included Advani, HRD minister M.M. Joshi, communications minister Buta Singh, commerce minister Ramakrishna Hegde, defence minister George Fernandes and urban development minister Ram Jethmalani (who actually sacrificed the law portfolio to accommodate Jayalalitha's demand that it be given only to her nominee Thambidurai, who has no legal background whatsoever). Jayalalitha thundered: "There cannot be one set of rules for the AIADMK and another for other political parties. What applied to Muthiah should also apply to all politicians and members of the Union cabinet. We have set high standards in public life and this should be followed."

OBVIOUSLY, there is no way the BJP can accommodate this demand, especially as the heads demanded include Advani's. BJP sources say it is "almost impossible" to dismiss the DMK government immediately and. Though optimistic noises about a rapprochement are being made, the BJP assessment is that even if Jayalalitha's complusions lead her to a drastic step, the government will not be toppled. An effort is also being made to emphasise the distinction between criminal cases and political ones.

The preemptive outburst was aimed at influencing the central team led by Ashok Kumar, special secretary in the Union home ministry, which was visiting the state to assess the law and order situation.Jayalalitha believed her tantrums would preclude a clean chit to the DMK. However, the team said it was fully convinced by the actions taken by the state government. Later talking to the media, the special secretary said: "The state is peaceful and it is unfair to call it a 'terrorist state'. The problem is only in three or four districts which are used by certain elements for mischief and trouble. But they are being dealt with stringently".

The first person to criticise Kumar's assessment was MDMK general secretary and the MP from Sivakasi, Vaiko. He said: "The central team has no business to reveal its views to the media. They should have merely submitted their report to the Union home ministry." A view shared by many in the ministry. Advani has already held Kumar responsible for "jumping the gun" and North Block is abuzz with speculation about "who cleared the briefing".

There is a growing suspicion among AIADMK leaders that the BJP is trying to muster support by breaking the RJD, Samajwadi Party and even the AIADMK. Says a senior AIADMK leader: "After the recent ruling of the BJP speaker in Uttar Pradesh on the disqualification of the defected BSP MLAs, we are worried about the BJP's intentions. On the one hand, it is soft on the DMK, on the other, the party is using people like Hegde and Jethmalani to discredit us in the public eye. We have also heard that Fernandes is talking to his other LTTE supporters like the PMK and MDMK to stay with the BJP if Madam decides to part company."

 The AIADMK is now convinced that it cannot afford to lose time. Most of the cases against Jayalalitha are at a critical stage and two crucial judgments are expected next week—vis-a-vis Jayalalitha's role in the Rs 60-crore Tansi disinvestment case and her petition challenging the constitution of a special court to try cases against her and her colleagues. Under the present chief justice of the Chennai high court, her hopes of getting legal remedy seem very slender. Hence, the BJP's worry that she will increasingly indulge in brinkmanship.