DMK The Frontrunner

WITH Chief Election Commissioner T.N. Seshan's fiat against cut-outs, banners and graffiti having taken away much of the colour from the political skyline of Tamil Nadu, one must, for a start, turn to the headquarters of various political parties in Madras to gauge their confidence level for the polls. And the exercise leaves little room for any doubt. The DMK-Moopanar Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) combine, with the CPI as its junior ally, is the frontrunner for both the Lok Sabha and assembly election sweepstakes in the state.

The air is surcharged at the Anna Arivalyam complex, head office of the DMK. There are hordes of supporters, including a group from the PMK, who have decided to join M. Karunanidhi. About a dozen mediapersons. Several people with petitions alleging misdeeds of the Jayalalitha government. And the vendors outside, selling photographs and badges depicting Karunanidhi, Moopanar, Ambedkar, and of course, superstar Rajnikant who has provided the big boost to the new alliance which is hoping to capture Fort St George, the seat of power in the state.

The hustle and bustle at the Satya-murthy Bhavan, till recently headquarters of the Tamil Nadu Congress, and now the TMC office, is equally impressive. Huge cut-outs of Rajiv and Sonia Gandhi, Indira Gandhi and the Mahatma, Kamraj and Lal Bahadur Shastri adorn the walls outside. A long queue of visitors await their turn to meet Moopanar, some of them with offerings of betel leaves, apples and bananas. And the constant ringing of the telephone. Almost everyone present is confident that the TMC will share power with the DMK and have a major say in the selection of the new prime minister after the elections.

In contrast, the AIADMK office in Roypettah bears a deserted look. There are just two persons sitting in an airconditioned room, watching the India-Pakistan one-dayer at Sharjah on television. There are no supporters. And no hangers-on.

There is little doubt, even among the few ardent Congress supporters left in the state, that P.V. Narasimha Rao made a major blunder by opting to realign with the AIADMK. With Jayalalitha's growing unpopularity, and the rebellion of more than three-fourths of the party workers against the tie-up, the Congress is fighting a difficult battle to stay a float.

This is the scene in Madras. In the countryside, the enthusiasm for the elections, and the dislike for the Jayalalitha regime is much more palpable. At Kootram-pakkan village, off the road from Madras to Kanchi, for instance, one hears the danger bells for Jayalalitha. The 250-odd Dalit families there have vowed not to vote for the AIADMK. The large number of caste riots in the last five years, in which the Dalits have been at the receiving end, have steeled their resolve against the ruling party. "We have not yet decided who to vote for. Youth workers of the CPI(M) have stood by us, so the temptation is to go along with the MDMK-CPI(M) alliance. But if the DMK-TMC appears to be the best bet against the AIADMK, we will vote for them," says Madurai, a Dalit leader.

Elsewhere, the Dalits seem to be in doubt. Blue flags of the Ambedkar Front mingle with the red and black of the DMK, the TMC tricolour, and of course, the starry banner of the Rajnikant Fan Club at almost all the DMK-TMC meetings. Comprising almost 20 per cent of the electorate in the state, the Dalit vote could have a major bearing on the final results especially if it swings away from the AIADMK-Congress combine.

The AIADMK-Congress combine's best hope lies in parties like the MDMK, and the Vanniyar-backed PMK splitting the anti-establishment votes, thus reducing the DMK-TMC's chances. But even that is an unlikely possibility. Random interviews among the Vanniyar community in their strongholds of Arcot and Salem showed that the fourth front of the Congress(T) and the PMK, is not conceived to be in a winnable position. And since even the Vanniyars have no reason to be enamoured of Jayalalitha, they have decided to vote strategically to topple her. "There is no point voting for the third or the fourth front as it will only help Jayalalitha," says a Vanniyar woman in Urani village. Time and again in the villages the conversation turns to the poor man's troubles finding a decent meal, even as the chief minister spends over a crore for her foster son's wedding.

Desperate to counter the trend, Jayalalitha is trying to revive the sympathy wave—following Rajiv Gandhi's assassination—which won her the elections in 1991. At a joint rally with Rao in Salem, she stunned even bitter critics of Moopanar by saying that she had reason to believe the rumours linking him to Rajiv Gandhi's death. But it seems rather unlikely that her hysterical allegations will boost her plummeting fortunes.