Narendra Modi's prime-ministerial candidature hurts Nitish Kumar the most: whether he breaks the alliance with the BJP over it or remains an NDA partner
As in the rest of India, the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar in 2014 and the subsequent Assembly polls in 2015 will be a combination and interplay of caste-communal-class arithmetic and the prevailing political perception at the time. And the kind of matrix that is emerging after the Modi crisis certainly does not look good for Nitish’s JD(U).
Given these numbers, let’s first look at what will happen if Nitish breaks ties with the BJP over Modi and decides to contest alone. The upper castes are bound to desert him and vote for Modi’s BJP, which effectively means that the JD(U) vote share of 22.6 % will drop significantly. And as politics in Bihar stands today, Lalu and Paswan are most likely to continue their alliance. Learning from its mistakes in going it alone in the 2010 assembly elections, the Congress may also join them and make their alliance more powerful with its additional 8 % vote. This means they will be comfortably ahead of Nitish, with a vote share of over 30 %. On the other hand, if Nitish decides to remain in the NDA, with Modi as the PM candidate, the Muslims are certain to desert Nitish and go with the Lalu-Paswan alliance, yet again bringing down JD(U) votes and seats significantly and putting the JD(U) on the margins in national politics after the next general elections. But more importantly, these results will carry forward their impact in the assembly elections that will follow soon in 2015.
Bihar is a deeply caste-ridden polity, and now with the added debate of communalism versus secularism triggered by Modi’s arrival on the national stage, arithmetic and percentages are numbers that reflect prevailing political perceptions.
Exactly one year later, in June 2012, Brahmeshwar Singh `Mukhiya’, the dreaded chief of the banned upper caste paramilitary Ranvir Sena, was gunned down in broad daylight in Ara, allegedly by the Maoists. What followed during his funeral procession on the streets of Patna was a display of violence and aggression by upper caste groups who were publicly egged on and supported by leading upper caste politicians mostly belonging to the BJP.
Nitish and his government, which has trumpeted its achievements in improving the law and order situation of Bihar has, however, been seen as helpless every time the Sangh Parivar has decided to flex its muscles and take the law and order into its own hands, as is evident in the Forbesganj killings and the `Mukhiya’ funeral.
To add to these incidents, the subversion of two important commissions that would have had far reaching political consequences is again seen as Nitish’s appeasement of the Sangh Parivar. The implementation of the recommendations of both these commissions would have badly hurt the BJP and its core upper caste constituency. Nitish’s decision to abruptly disband the Amir Das Commission report that was set up by Lalu after the Laxmanpur Bathe massacre to investigate the link between politicians and the Ranvir Sena is clearly seen as an act to suppress findings which, most likely, would have indicated a link between the BJP/RSS leadership and the Ranvir Sena.
Similarly, Nitish's government has been completely silent on the Bihar Land Reform Commission. The commission had recommended providing land to share-croppers with secure cultivation rights as well as making available surplus land for distribution to the landless by implementing ceilings on land holdings. Nitish's inaction on these commissions has, once again, given strength to the perception that because of his dependence on the BJP, he will never do anything that hurts the interests of the landed upper castes.
Jamal Kidwai is the director of AMAN Trust